Ladbrokes Trophy Chase. Newbury. December 2nd.

[Desert Orchid]

SFP almost always held up in past races.

Yes, but those races weren't soft-ground Hennessys. I was anticipating a ride from just the wrong side of midfield. I'll watch it again a few times over the next few days to see if there's anything else worth noting.

 

[Kauto Abu]

I was on Whisper win bet myself and also had a few ew quid on Pilgrims Bay at 66/1 so at least that. Whisper ran a cracker giving the Mullins horse a stone in weight. That 4lb he got for beating Clan Des Obeaux last time out looks costly now.

On the other hand as someone who’s in balls deep on Mite Bite for the King George this was a bitter sweet moment. A fine frank of form indeed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Grasshopper]

SFP was pretty-much all-out behind the principals when he came down. Stamina might have been stretched to breaking-point in that ground.

 

[swedish chef]

SFP was pretty-much all-out behind the principals when he came down. Stamina might have been stretched to breaking-point in that ground.

The times today suggest the going had good in it probably g/soft ground. Thought Whisper's performance was Gold Cup standard and he proved he has the stamina.

 

[Grasshopper]

Would agree with that re Whisper.

 

[Danny]

Harry Fry eh. Not one to back in big races.

I think next year he might consider prep runs a good idea following Kylemore,Minella and American today all completley failing in big races in recent weeks coming to big races directly and all running completley pap!

 

[Tanlic]

Whisper's performance would be a bit behind that of Native River and while he is hardly likely to improve he deserves his place in the Gold Cup.

If he is in the same form with Mr Russell aboard who knows?

 

[Euronymous]

Whisper's performance would be a bit behind that of Native River

How do you work that out. Double Ross was less that 6l off the 155 rated winner who barely had 11st on his back. For me Whisper's performance today is a fair bit better.

 

[granger]

Still not sold on Whisper but would be a bit smugger if holding MB dockets.

in saying that Yorkies form got a good boost recently too.

 

[Tanlic]

How do you work that out. Double Ross was less that 6l off the 155 rated winner who barely had 11st on his back. For me Whisper's performance today is a fair bit better.

Was it really? You are making the same mistake the handicapper made back then........Native River went about 6 lengths clear then stopped/idled in front but had loads left in the tank but for which he'd have won a minute.

He then carried 11st12lbs and hacked up in the Welsh Grand National off the same mark which turned out to be way wrong as again he shot 6 lengths clear at the last then did his idling trick again.

IMO Whisper ran to his mark today which is 7lbs below what i reckon Native River really ran to. They did raise him to a 168 when the penny dropped and he went on to run a splendid 3rd in the GC.

I'm a huge Whisper Henderson Russell fan but I can't see him being good enough to compete but as I said earlier with that combination who knows?

 

[Tanlic]

Still not sold on Whisper but would be a bit smugger if holding MB dockets.

in saying that Yorkies form got a good boost recently too.

I've got a nice combi backed for 50k all Nicky's....but don't feel smug at all but I do feel I am stupid when I think about how many beers I could have bought with my stake

 

[Grasshopper]

Was it really? You are making the same mistake the handicapper made back then........Native River went about 6 lengths clear then stopped/idled in front but had loads left in the tank but for which he'd have won a minute.

He then carried 11st12lbs and hacked up in the Welsh Grand National off the same mark which turned out to be way wrong as again he shot 6 lengths clear at the last then did his idling trick again.

IMO Whisper ran to his mark today which is 7lbs below what i reckon Native River really ran to. They did raise him to a 168 when the penny dropped and he went on to run a splendid 3rd in the GC.

I'm a huge Whisper Henderson Russell fan but I can't see him being good enough to compete but as I said earlier with that combination who knows?

What with this, and your Faugheen drivel on the other thread, I can only assume you’ve been hitting the top-end opium dens lately.:nono:

Go look at the 2016 Hennessy again. Native River was a convincing winner, but he most certainly wasn’t idling, and certainly did not have loads left to give at the end. Whisper has definitely shown a higher level of form in defeat, carrying 7lbs more than NR, and trying to give a stone to an in-form, progressive young animal in Total Recall (rather than conceding a handful of lbs to relative geriatrics like CD and DR), and the pair came a lot further clear of the other placers than NR and CD managed.

i worry for your mental health, if - after assimilating all the evidence - you can put NR a half-stone ahead, at the same stage in their careers.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I'll post some figures later in the week but I reckon Whisper works out a good 7lbs better than Native River.

 

[Danny]

Just looking at this Whisper Debate and I'd wrote a bit of reflection over at my other place so some of it might not make much sense. I'm not as solid as some of you either way but I thought it might be a bit more of a balanced view to add to the debate.

Not sure what's gone on in that race yesterday. I've looked at the result this morning to see what I might of missed. Total Recall and Whisper 1st and 2nd is fair enough although I couldn't of backed either at the prices. I'd still be interested to know if anyone can shed any light on those huge differences between LT's and DE's figures for TR I find it bizzare that one can have him producing the third best figure lto and 4th on figures overall whilst the other had his lto figure as only his third best performance and came out what was last on his figures but ended up being changed to second from bottom on the day ?

I then switched my attention to the 3rd,4th,5th and 6th In the race to see what I had missed. Braquier dor the 4th was fair enough I'd had him under consideration for sometime during the week but dropped him as I thought firstly he'd need good ground to figure, I read Paul Nicholls thoughts on him as well and he said the better the ground the better he'll run but was quite upbeat about his chances despite his mark being earned through low grade racing in the summer which was my other concern. The 3rd Regal Encore I couldn't have found he had bits and bobs including a 8th in the GN but you'd have been hard pressed to give him a squeak here.

Pilgrims bay 5th beaten 17L was beaten 18L by present man last time and there wasn't a fat lot in his previous form to suggest he'd go much better here. I have to be honest, I thought if Present man jumped in a straight line here he was worthy of a huge bet after watching his Doncaster run where he jumped violently right throughout it put me off thankfully but I'm not sure yet why he's run quite so badly yesterday. The 6th and 7th Potters legend and Missed Approach both sported first time blinkers but they've been beaten a distance to suggest they aren't really relevant to how did I miss that. They've probably come under the category of finishing in front of horses that have under performed. Again though I couldn't have found either and Potters was one who was beat at Doncaster last season behind Present man despite Present Man conceding a lot of ground by jumping right so I wouldn't have fancied him to reverse either.

My first reaction to the race was what a whopper Whisper has run and that to me looks like a much improved performance and worthy of Gold cup winner. Now I've had a look at the also rans I'm not sure the form will turn out to be that good. One of the things that put me off of Whisper was stamina. He's always faltered up the Hill at Cheltenham and been seen to better effect at Aintree and although back on a similar track yesterday I thought the extra distance and softer ground than he usually gets in the spring would be his undoing. The RSA from last year was the most bizzare race I've seen for many a year and also put me off. When you see what Might bite did over the last and on the run in there isn't a chance on Earth that horse can get back up on the run in unless Whisper is absolutely running on empty. Having been held up off the pace and got through by default to lead he should have comfortably seen the race out in those circumstances even if starting to get tired.

I think at least me and bets lo agreed that it probably wasn't a strong renewal....the time might suggest otherwise so I'm not sure what to make of it all really. Has Whisper improved at this age ? Could he be a serious Gold cup contender or is this a similar level of form that he's always shown on flat tracks and does he still rate a little bit below top class given what he's beat ?

 

[Grasshopper]

Think you have called Whisper's stamina all wrong, Danny. He won a Liverpool Stayers Hurdle over 3m+ a couple of years back, and his runs behind Might Bite at Cheltenham and Aintree last season, show that he was well-suited by staying trips. Only a high-class animal can go that close in a Hennessy off a mark in the 160's, and I think he is about as rock-solid a staying chaser as they come.

Of course, the thing to take-out of yesterday's race is how much of a machine The Biter is. Should be odds-on for the King George, and half the price for the Gold Cup.

 

[Danny]

How do you work that out. Double Ross was less that 6l off the 155 rated winner who barely had 11st on his back. For me Whisper's performance today is a fair bit better.

Is putting nine lengths on Regal Encore conceding 11lb much better ? Not sure myself I probably think its the same ball park though.

 

[Grasshopper]

It's self-evidently better form, Danny, given RE was rated 150 going into this Hennessy, and was beaten an effective 20L, whereas the 149-rated Double-Ross was beaten an effective 14L by Native River.

 

[Danny]

Think you have called Whisper's stamina all wrong, Danny. He won a Liverpool Stayers Hurdle over 3m+ a couple of years back, and his runs behind Might Bite at Cheltenham and Aintree last season, show that he was well-suited by staying trips. Only a high-class animal can go that close in a Hennessy off a mark in the 160's, and I think he is about as rock-solid a staying chaser as they come.

Of course, the thing to take-out of yesterday's race is how much of a machine The Biter is. Should be odds-on for the King George, and half the price for the Gold Cup.

I hope he pulls it off for you mate its a cracking bet.

I'd pretty much accept that I'd call anything wrong and I'm always open to the suggestion that, that is the case. In fact I think that's what I was admitting to that he proved me wrong as those were my thoughts that put me off backing him for the race. However I'd also suggest that winning staying hurdles isn't always proof of stamina. Any horse stays a trip as in reality a cart horse will get 3 miles but will just do so in his own time. Staying hurdles have rarely been run at an end to end gallop thus putting less emphasis on stamina and more often than not you get a jog and sprint. Maybe not in Limestone lads day.

If you take a true reflection of stamina as being able to see a trip out when it is run at and end to end gallop then you know a horse truly "stays the trip" and more so it is only then when you see what a horse is capable of. Year after year you'll see horses that have been running in jog and sprint type affairs looking good turn up at the festival and suddenly can't cope with a race run at pace.

That said I think I gave the reasons that I doubted Whisper before the Hennessy yesterday and he has indeed proved me wrong as I'm sure Dessie will probably confirm at some point that will probably produce Whispers best ever figure. As such he has seen out a an extended 3 miles at a strong pace and has indeed proven to me that he truly does possess the stamina to do so.

Which should point to that Might bite is indeed the next big thing.

Good luck Grass.

 

[Danny]

It's self-evidently better form, Danny, given RE was rated 150 going into this Hennessy, and was beaten an effective 20L, whereas the 149-rated Double-Ross was beaten an effective 14L by Native River.

I sometimes don't think its as simple as that but however I'd probably be inclined to agree with the outcome if pushed on it.

 

[Grasshopper]

No sweat, Danny, and no surprise if DO confirms it's a career-best for Whisper.

I think he is a genuine Gold Cup contender.......though I do think his chance is somewhat dependent on further monkey-business from The Biter.

 

[Grasshopper]

I sometimes don't think its as simple as that but however I'd probably be inclined to agree with the outcome if pushed on it.

Probably isn't quite that simple, but there are other mitigating factors too; including the fact you needed the Hubble to find CD and DR behind the principals yesterday.*

* Appreciate it isn't as simple as that either, but these things start to stack-up! :lol:

 

[Danny]

Probably isn't quite that simple, but there are other mitigating factors too; including the fact you needed the Hubble to find CD and DR behind the principals yesterday.*

* Appreciate it isn't as simple as that either, but these things start to stack-up! :lol:

It is actually a point collaterally reading the form not so much with Double Ross but Carols D and VDR have run very close to last years renewal form considering the weight difference and were both well and truly stuffed which was a shame as I'd backed CD in the end haha.

 

[Tanlic]

What with this, and your Faugheen drivel on the other thread, I can only assume you’ve been hitting the top-end opium dens lately.:nono:

Go look at the 2016 Hennessy again. Native River was a convincing winner, but he most certainly wasn’t idling, and certainly did not have loads left to give at the end. Whisper has definitely shown a higher level of form in defeat, carrying 7lbs more than NR, and trying to give a stone to an in-form, progressive young animal in Total Recall (rather than conceding a handful of lbs to relative geriatrics like CD and DR), and the pair came a lot further clear of the other placers than NR and CD managed.

i worry for your mental health, if - after assimilating all the evidence - you can put NR a half-stone ahead, at the same stage in their careers.

I did watch the race this morning before I posted...........after reading your young mental Penicuik ya bass post I looked up the form and guess what?

Mostly chased leader until led after 16th, ridden after 17th, headed next, jumped into lead again 2 out, asserted under pressure last, idling in clear lead and driven flat, pressed and found extra to hold challenger close home.

What we witnessed was a 2 horse race once American's flop took place..the next 6 were no better than ordinary...so you are basing your opinion on a Total Unknown Recall
Whisper is twice the price of Native River for the Gold Cup and with good reason. Tizzard never viewed him as a Gold Cup horse last year until it was too late to train him as one. He had a great season and with different prep he is a serious contender for the race whereas Whisper is unlikely to go for the Gold Cup unless Dai Waters insists. Nicky is sure to go Ryanair as the horse has lost yet again at 3 miles and 3m2f would certainly be a bridge too far.

As for Faugheen? Bouveur is in a different class to anything he has ever taken on bar none..what price he can do 4 on the trot.....not impossible these days with improved training techniques

 

[Desert Orchid]

It is actually a point collaterally reading the form not so much with Double Ross but Carols D and VDR have run very close to last years renewal form considering the weight difference and were both well and truly stuffed which was a shame as I'd backed CD in the end haha.

I'm not keen on relying to heavily on form that's a year old. If they're both stuffed out of sight, the chances are that any similarity in relative form is no more than a coincidence. Regal Encore is the fly in the ointment for me at the moment. Was he a sneaky JP job? He can run well on occasion - usually when big money is involved - and I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

The time suggests they took no prisoners, by the way.

 

[Danny]

Thats fair comment Des.