Ladbrokes Trophy

Was on the ground at the back of the last for 15 minutes after the RSA last year. Good to be alive, but I'm guessing out of love with the game. Both Mister Malarkey and himself looked hugely promising at one stage. Tizzards are struggling.
 
Vinndication wants a right handed track, but if he's not King George standard, where exactly are they supposed to run him?

Or just go to the King George for a day out and a picnic...and hope for the best.....owners have done worse...
 
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Tanlic said:
Good to see you are all getting on as well as ever. Between The Hennessy Gold Cup The Massey Ferguson and The Mackeson ..The Hennessy / The Ladbroke has done best in holding it's own in recent years. Top Dogs like Denman (2), Bobs Worth Many Clouds and Native River going on to bigger and better things.

That said while Vindication and David Bass look worthy favs I doubt if the race will produce Gold Cup winner number 8 out of this field.

I reckon the way Bailly's horses are running a David Bass is riding they will take some beating.

A couple of ew bets on Vindication and Black Op could end up showing a profit.
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Bloody hell Tanlic, only 18 months! Did they let you out early for good behaviour?!
 
Well done, Cloth Cap backers.

I haven't actually seen the race all the way through yet.

But, as I said before, I'm a fan of Tom Scu as a tactician.

The form with The Conditional and Beware The Bear has me thinking the ones I felt would make the most improvement as second-season chasers haven't delivered but it was probably a hotter race than last year's given both TC and BTB were still improving on my figures for them and I still reckon TOTG would have won.

I don't plan to give up on the ones I did back.

As for Cloth Cap, those with long enough memories will remember I was all over this like a rash at 20/1 at the 5-day stage when it ran second in the Scottish National and expected it to go on better last season than it did. I now have to wonder if a two-year plot for the 2021 National was hatched after Ayr. He'll go up somewhere around 10lbs for today so will now be sure to make the cut in April. Today was Many Clouds-esque.

Bastert :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
My thoughts at this stage: Ardlethen 2nd season nov; well under the radar but lots of positive form links with better horses; reportedly highly regarded; on the pick of his form he has the winning of this.

Cloth Cap’19 Scottish National; couldn’t improve on that last season; hard to see where the improvement is going to come from this time.
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Maxbet said:
Can't see how Ardlethan makes up the 17 length's with Cloth Cap for a 1Lb pull in the 4 miler at Cheltenham....Cloth Cap only weakened after the last, Ardlethan weakened well before for 4m stamina became an issue!
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Yesterdays result; Lb for Lb with the National Hunt chase form....Ardlethan is definitely worth following when he gets his desired soft/heavy conditions'
 
Just watched the full race for the first time.

You have to say it was a brilliant ride by Scu on the winner who never put a foot wrong the whole way, bagging the fresh ground early and giving it up to no one.

Right now, though, I'm actually tempted to go low with the form, which was the last thing on my mind on first viewing as I'm such a fan of the race.

However, The first three home were the bottom three in my table of ratings for the race so I thought I'd look at how they performed in order from the top down:

Ardlethen - ridden negatively early, nice progress to challenge two out weakened.
Beware The Bear - Ridden to pick up some place scraps, presumably with the National in mind.
Potterman - getting into a challenging position when UR.
Regal Encore - ridden wide and struggling halfway
Black Op - prominent but too many sticky jumps, weakened from 2 out.
La Bague - never dangerous, in decline?
Mister Malarkey - UR
Two For Gold - non-stayer.
Cloth Cap - won
Ballyoptic - ridden rear and wide, trying to get lower for National?
Secret Investor - good position first circuit, looked dangerous 4 out, not stay? Lost shoe.
Copperhead - never really travelling, PU.
Danny Whizzbang - ditto.
Vinndication - fell
Kildisart - not handicapped to win, never dangerous.
Aye Right - always prominent, jumped well, stayed on, ran well.
The Hollow Ginge - ridden to pick up place scraps, did so.
The Conditional - expected to improve again into this season, raced in leading pack, ran well.

It wasn't unlike the National itself, in that often it's whatever takes to the race, gets into a rhythm and stays on that wins. In the National many good horses don't stay or don't take to the challenge and I wonder if that's what has happened here.

I'll be rating the race as positively as I dare but probably not as highly as I thought watching Cloth Cap pass the post.
 
I've had a look at the meeting via the clock.

It pretty much backs up what my form figures are telling me.

Cloth Cap's was the best comparative time on the day. He has burned off most of the chasing pack and the minor placings went to hold-up horses who stayed on past tiring rivals. Credit goes to Tom Scu for getting the fractions spot on although I would love to see a sectional analysis to know what his finishing percentage was.

I have Flash Of Steel putting up a very smart performance in the middle-distance hcap hurdle and a 5lbs rise might look lenient the next time they target a race. Skelton admitted he'd laid this one out for Cheltenham but he never really got competitive on the day. Maybe he needs a flat track. I reckon the form of this race will work out well.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just watched the full race for the first time. However, The first three home were the bottom three in my table of ratings
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Desert Orchid said:
I've had a look at the meeting via the clock. It pretty much backs up what my form figures are telling me.
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Without wanting to sound a bit conceited here Do, I’m am a wee bit confused; aren’t your form figures, your ratings.
If so; what are you telling us then?
Are you suggesting that you are going to rip them up and that we need to enquire about your lowest ratings as possible winners in future.
 
I reckon you're crossing your own wires here, Maxbet but I'll accept I've played a part.

The first quote referred to my ratings going into the race.

The second to my ratings based on the result.

My part is in a brain fart in the first quote. It should have read the first three home after Cloth Cap (who was mid-table but only two pounds shy of what it would take to win an average Saturday £20k+ handicap, but he also had a 'p'.)

In an earlier post I listed them in order and noted what had happened to them during the race. That was why my initial thought was to only be 'as positive as I dare' (I think that's how I put it at the time) but I've gone a wee bit higher than that.

I do think, like the Mackeson, the race fell apart because the winner made it fall apart but I don't think that will always happen. Even Frodon found himself being handicapped out of races at Cheltenham.
 
From Post #114 above:

However, The first three home were the bottom three in my table of ratings for the race so I thought I'd look at how they performed in order from the top down:

Ardlethen - ridden negatively early, nice progress to challenge two out weakened.
Beware The Bear - Ridden to pick up some place scraps, presumably with the National in mind.
Potterman - getting into a challenging position when UR.
Regal Encore - ridden wide and struggling halfway
Black Op - prominent but too many sticky jumps, weakened from 2 out.
La Bague - never dangerous, in decline?
Mister Malarkey - UR
Two For Gold - non-stayer.
Cloth Cap - won
Ballyoptic - ridden rear and wide, trying to get lower for National?
Secret Investor - good position first circuit, looked dangerous 4 out, not stay? Lost shoe.
Copperhead - never really travelling, PU.
Danny Whizzbang - ditto.
Vinndication - fell
Kildisart - not handicapped to win, never dangerous.
Aye Right - always prominent, jumped well, stayed on, ran well.
The Hollow Ginge - ridden to pick up place scraps, did so.
The Conditional - expected to improve again into this season, raced in leading pack, ran well.

...

I'll be rating the race as positively as I dare but probably not as highly as I thought watching Cloth Cap pass the post.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I reckon you're crossing your own wires here, Maxbet but I'll accept I've played a part.

The first quote referred to my ratings going into the race.

The second to my ratings based on the result.

My part is in a brain fart in the first quote. It should have read the first three home after Cloth Cap (who was mid-table but only two pounds shy of what it would take to win an average Saturday £20k+ handicap, but he also had a 'p'.)

In an earlier post I listed them in order and noted what had happened to them during the race. That was why my initial thought was to only be 'as positive as I dare' (I think that's how I put it at the time) but I've gone a wee bit higher than that.

I do think, like the Mackeson, the race fell apart because the winner made it fall apart but I don't think that will always happen. Even Frodon found himself being handicapped out of races at Cheltenham.
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Frodon was handicapped out of it because he was top weight, he'd become Grade 2 almost 1.
Cloth cap is going to go into a race carrying the same weight he carried in the Trophy, which means he can go the same pace that non of the others could go.

If my wires are crossed Do, please help me...start by telling me how he slows down, you've hinted he might not stay and if that's your only dissing of the form, then you're hoping more than reasoning here.
It could be the ground slows him, but I think that's not an issue either....John Jo has plotted this.

Let me tell you how positive you should be... Watch Cap Du Nord slaughter his handicap (course record) with 10-5, cruising through on the bridle at the 3rd last, play him and Cloth cap together as they jump the 2nd last. He only ran 2m6f...4 furlongs less than Cloth Cap who does him 6 length's in that short distance at the end of their races...Cloth Cap could have gone round again, he was powering away!!

I'm trying to get you to buy into this Do, before I embarrass myself and rate it 160!
 
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