Leopardstown Monday

Galileo said:
I still have not given up on Jered, but he is very ground dependent and like I said it is a race to wait until the day.
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That's the stuff, Gal! Only has a realistic chance if the ground were to come up genuinely good, as you say.

Was really impressed by Sweeps Hill in the bumper. Travelled well and picked up some useful horses very easily. Another promising bumper horse for Kiely.
 
Have to say its been a great 4 days.I know it desn't have the quality of Cheltenham but there was plenty of excitement at the two Irish meetings.
 
LUKE said:
Have to say its been a great 4 days.I know it desn't have the quality of Cheltenham but there was plenty of excitement at the two Irish meetings.
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Now we move into the Irish super Sunday seires on the way to Cheltenham. What has annoyed me about the four days was the times SIS showed english tin pot races over Leopardstown grade one races.
 
I'm not surprised Sublimity and Won In The Dark came away. The race was run at a crawl and it brought their superior speed into play, especially on the tight inside course at Leopardstown. Ruby needed to have them at a stretch down the back and seemed more content to control things off a moderate gallop.

A change in tactics is due with Sizing Europe now. They can't continually let him throw his races away by pulling for his head. They would be better served by letting him stride on given there's been no indication that he's a horse that needs to be delivered late.

Cantoris should be delighted with Inca's third given the poor ride he was given, and he'll be a different horse in March at Cheltenham which clearly suits if they run at a championship pace and he gets a lead behind a couple of front-runners. I can't imagine the World Hurdle is even the remotest consideration.

Binoculor does look a worthy favourite at this stage though, but 6/4 is much too short given he hasn't been tested against the best Irish horses yet.
 
Maruco said:
Binoculor does look a worthy favourite at this stage though, but 6/4 is much too short given he hasn't been tested against the best Irish horses yet.
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I disagree, Maruco.

No offence to Cantoris or connections of the other horses, but Binocular has absolutely nothing to fear from any of the Irish hurdlers, if today is the most representative field they can muster in opposition (though I'd echo Gal's comments about Jered).

In fact, I'm still a little surprised that 6/4 is still freely available about Binocular for the Champion Hurdle. I'm not saying it's a great price, but I figured most firms would have taken the opportunity to cut him in the event of Sizing Europe not winning hard-held.
 
if the race was run at such a crawl then I would have expected either BI or HE to still be there late on as when the speed increased it would have brought their stamina into play just a little...as it was both gave way as though knackered...we are talking here as though the whole field walked to two out then kicked...that clearly wasn't the case with the front two..the way they have both gone back suggests emptying out very quickly after early exertion.

it's not as though any horse in that field is a speedster...both BI and HE can win two mile races...we are hardly talking king stand horses here
 
it was by far the fastest racetime on the card if you compare the time to the RP standard as well ...just 3.1 secs slower

compare that to the other races

slow by 30 seconds
slow by 7.9 seconds
slow by 17.8 seconds
slow by 24.5 seconds
slow by 23 seconds


as we know..when races like this are run at a crawl it is very easy for a novice race to be run faster overall...that over the same c/d was nearly 5 seconds slower...this wasn't the case either

anyone that makes speed figures will know that it is highly unlikely it was a slow run race...well a crawl as has been suggested
 
Stayers Hurdle an option for Brave Inca? Either way a great run from him considering it would have been no surprise to see him completely bomb out on his second run back.
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he really has come back well but also seems to need further i think. But Punchestown doesnt make that divsion look very easy. Perhaps Aintree for him?

I am very suprised Binocular hasnt shortened further too
 
Maruco said:
Cantoris should be delighted with Inca's third given the poor ride he was given, and he'll be a different horse in March at Cheltenham which clearly suits if they run at a championship pace and he gets a lead behind a couple of front-runners. I can't imagine the World Hurdle is even the remotest consideration.
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I hope not, connections of Hardy Eustace made a massive mistake last year and Brave Inca would be a similar idiotic mistake.
 
Galileo said:
Great few days racing...so nice to see decent ground for a change as well.
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Agree with that ground comment, and also think it's been a very enjoyable few days.

I think Ruby has been quite poor though and wonder will there now be the same media campaign against him that there was with Sam Thomas?

With regard to Cheltenham, Osana may just be the forgotten horse, and given a better ride than last season's, he could go close.

Great to see Exotic Dancer finally win a Grade 1, and there were some fantastic finishes.
 
Just back from the races. A good day out. Here are my thoughts on the race and BI. I thought he looked burly in the ring. Colm had been easy on him on the run up to this race and he missed his usual pre-race strenuous gallop in an effort to keep him fresh and avoid the dreaded bounce (which I am convinced is caused by people being too hard on their charges after good run following a break). In the race itself, Hardy was unable to bring us down the back straight at the pace BI wanted to go. Ruby wanted to go on earlier but wanted to mind him too. Hardy just can't go fast enough these days to be a decent lead horse. The fact that Aitmatov was within strking distance turning in suggests they didn't go very fast and it was the two flat horses that showed the best turn of foot up the straight. Inca got tired, probably due to being a gallop short. My own feeling is that BI needs a few things going for him this day and today he had nothing going for him........not in his best shape, good ground on a tight track and a speed finish. Hopefully things will be much different in four weeks.

On Kiely's, word was that he has the best bunch of horses he's ever had. However, he was getting 13lbs from the second and if Patrick had to ride the race again he would have gone on much earlier. I'd need to see the winner do it with a penalty to be convinced.
 
I think Sublimity is being given a proper campaign this year and will be in the frame come Cheltenham. He'll be fit and ready on the day. I deserted him today, but won't be doing so in future.

I understand where people are coming from in writing off some of the Irish horses for the Champion Hurdle but I still believe they'll make up the majority of the field and, as far as I'm concerned, it's Binocular vs the best of the Irish. Not Katchit or Osana or Celestial Halo.
 
Brave Inca should surely be aimed for the stayers?? Why do connections keep going down the 2mile route?? It has been proved time and again that he will get outpaced ina 2mile race.
 
In hindsight it might have been interesting to see BI run in the 3 miler this week. Then he could have confirmed his ability to stay (or not) three miles, give you the option of then going the Irish Champion Hurdle route and then if he is up to Cheltenham at least connections would have all the info they need as to what target to aim the horse at. Like Cantoris said, everything was against them today so there was little to be gained running him in it......hindsight I know.
 
Personally I think it would be a mistake to run Brave Inca in the stayers at Cheltenham. Provided there is cut in the ground, he has a live chance in the Champion IMO.
 
The more I think about it the more I reckon Hills 16/1 about Punjabi is the standout in the market as it currently sits.
 
Will said:
Brave Inca should surely be aimed for the stayers?? Why do connections keep going down the 2mile route?? It has been proved time and again that he will get outpaced ina 2mile race.
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When has time and again been? We are keeping him to 2 miles for one simple reason, we don't need to step him up in trip. He will stay three miles.....whether he stays the extended three at cheltenham is a different story. Given that he was not spot on yesterday, running him over three the day before might have been the biggest mistake we ever made with him. In the end, he didn't have too hard a race yesterday and that will stand to him. Are options are the Irish Champion or step him up in trip and we don't see the reason to do the latter just yet and if we don't run over 3 miles before Cheltenham we will not be doing a Hardy and running him over it first time in March. We still think there is a 2 mile or 2.5 mile grade 1 in him.
 
Looking at them in the pre-parade ring before the race ..

Inca was nice and relaxed and like Cantoris said not entirely wound up.

I thought Hardy looked a bit under the weather , his coat was a bit dull.

Sublimity is a powerful looking animal and still looked like there was a bit to work on.

Sizing is a smashing looking horse but I didn't fancy his front legs, I think he may be a bit brittle not unwilling as some have suggested.

Aitmatov wasn't mad keen on coming out of the pre-parade ring,~

Muirhead is a nice type and one to monitor

River Liane got warm before the race and too my eye looked a bit like a filly.

Won in the dark got his ground and was expected to run a big race by connections, a tail swisher like many of his fathers sons.


I never believed it was the ground that stopped Sublimity last year, he simply wasn't fit. I think he'll win the Champ Hurdle.

P.s. who ever backed Judge Roy (I didn't) he got a stinker of a ride.
 
Cantoris said:
When has time and again been? We are keeping him to 2 miles for one simple reason, we don't need to step him up in trip. He will stay three miles.....whether he stays the extended three at cheltenham is a different story. Given that he was not spot on yesterday, running him over three the day before might have been the biggest mistake we ever made with him. In the end, he didn't have too hard a race yesterday and that will stand to him. Are options are the Irish Champion or step him up in trip and we don't see the reason to do the latter just yet and if we don't run over 3 miles before Cheltenham we will not be doing a Hardy and running him over it first time in March. We still think there is a 2 mile or 2.5 mile grade 1 in him.
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Ye have done right by the horse so far...so not going to start questioning the team now!! Thanks for your thoughts Cantoris.
 
The explanations offered for Brave Inca's performance make sense to me and I would certainly stick to 2m until perhaps Aintree.

Judge Roy's defeat cost me plenty yesterday, a 15/1 double and a 26/1 treble, but I think there was more bad luck than bad jockeyship involved in what happened to him. You might want to say Andrew Mac was at fault for tracking the wrong horses, but once he had done that there was not much to be done as the field filed past him on his outside approaching the straight. He was forced inside and things didn't work out any better for him there.

It's likely, in any case, that if he had got out earlier the winner would have raised his game; Carberry never had to get serious with him.
 
Cantoris said:
Just back from the races. A good day out. Here are my thoughts on the race and BI. I thought he looked burly in the ring. Colm had been easy on him on the run up to this race and he missed his usual pre-race strenuous gallop in an effort to keep him fresh and avoid the dreaded bounce (which I am convinced is caused by people being too hard on their charges after good run following a break). In the race itself, Hardy was unable to bring us down the back straight at the pace BI wanted to go. Ruby wanted to go on earlier but wanted to mind him too. Hardy just can't go fast enough these days to be a decent lead horse. The fact that Aitmatov was within strking distance turning in suggests they didn't go very fast and it was the two flat horses that showed the best turn of foot up the straight. Inca got tired, probably due to being a gallop short. My own feeling is that BI needs a few things going for him this day and today he had nothing going for him........not in his best shape, good ground on a tight track and a speed finish. Hopefully things will be much different in four weeks.
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Inspired :)
 
Didn't even look out of breath after the race today, he makes a mockery of the rule book.I will have to have a few quid on him for the champ hurdle at the current price although still a sublimity man if the ground is decent.

Nice to see people who appreciate owning a good horse too :)
 
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