Lexus Chase

EC1 said:
think flemenstar will hose in tbh..brother barafundle got 3 miles easily..think tomorrow will see something very special from this horse
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I agree - we will have a new Gold Cup favourite shortly after three tomorrow. He has never looked like not staying yet to me.
 
Flemenstar and SDC are improving and very decent. I particularly like Flemenstar. Tidal Bay would be a great result for my TTF and see me close to taking up the pace.
 
OTB said:
Cant see Flemenstar staying this trip. SDC for me with TB running on for 2nd.
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TB will be a good test for the others to prove they can stay well. TTF considerations aside I'd rather like the idea of Flemenstar having enough about him to go close.
 
granger said:
Why do you not think he won't stay?
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Based on his track runs. He looks a very good 2m4 horse. High cruising speed, but cant see him staying the 3m in what will be pretty churned up ground. I may ofcourse be totally wrong. It wouldnt be the first time! :D
 
I dont like the way Casey was talking before christmas. Suggesting that he will be held up in an effort to see out the trip. He wasnt sounding confident. Hardly rock solid evidence but to my eye he wasnt finishing strongly in the Durkan. Lynch looking around in the last 100 yards to me was him checking to see how hard to he had to be - feeling the horse coming back underneath him. I hope I'm wrong to oppose him.
 
RH makes a fair point about the trip in respect of Tidal Bay but his last run is by far the best form on offer and it could just be that he is still on the improve. Not sure whether rain is forecast but soft at least is likely to appear in the going description and it will be pretty poor and surprising if the other jocks just allow Lynch to dawdle along in front. I can't remember too many Lexus winners careering away from the last and if he is within a couple of lengths at the last Tidal Bay will have every chance of running them down. I think the front two in the market have plenty to prove.
 
Lynch won't be out in front until probably the second last, maybe even the last. He set the pace in the Durkan as nothing else would. First Lieutenant or China Rock are more likely to take them along. Lynch won't push the button until late on. He'll get the trip no problem IMO, its just who is the better horse over the trip, him or SDC. I agree with Reet re TB. He'll most likely be a fast finishing 3rd, but can't see him troubling the front 2.
 
Tidal Bay the danger for me - Nicholls has worked miracles with the old boy . I just feel Flemenstar has lots still untapped .
 
reet hard said:
Aye, Tan; in a race run at a helter-skelter pace over 2.5f further, he was just getting into it.
He just doesn't jump quickly enough for 3m - at this level & on this ground. Be amazed if he makes the first 3; unless there's a deluge.
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Well your post had me re-running the race before replying and to be frank it's my guess you haven't took the time to do so. I suggest you do and tell me at what point he was outpaced or had any problem with his jumping. Me thinks my old pal Reet is letting his old memories of Tidal Bay rule his way of thinking

At no point in the Hennessy, bar it the line, did Ruby have any problems having Tidal Bay exactly where he wanted him to be. He was never at any point outpaced and when Ruby gave him an inch of rein he cruised past 10 of the remaining 12 horses with Ruby far from animated.

What beat Tiday Bay that day, who incidentally ran all the way to the line, was the 11st12lbs he had on his back and the concession of 6lbs to a very good horse, not his lack of ability to go the pace.

Ruby road him to attempt to win a 3m2f race had it been 3 miles I doubt very much the result would have been any different

Taking it his attitude of late hasn't changed and he races with the same enthusiasm I can see no reason why he won't beat the majority of these.

As I stated earlier it all revolves round Flemenstar . If he is as good as he has looked and is unaffected by the extra distance we could be dealing with the best chaser to come out of Ireland since Captain Christie then it won't matter too much what else does what.
 
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Fist, you're dreaming - expect a rude awakening just after 3.00 this afternoon.:cool:

Thursday's times suggest the ground is borderline g/s, and a few showers still wouldn't make it nearly as soft as Flemenstar won over lto. In that ground he made all, in (relatively) the fastest race of the day, and would have gone even further in front of SDC at the finish, if required to do so.
Punchestown would also be a stiffer track than Leopardstown, so the percentage call is he stays it comfortably. Barring heavy rain, he looks nailed on.
 
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I'm with Reet,I'll eat my hat if Tidal Bay beats either of the first two in the market.fully expecting Flem to stay.11/4 for the GC by this evening
 
Wm Hill have 'taken a view' - longest on Flemenstar; shortest on Tidal Bay.
7/4 the fav will do nicely,
 
If they go 11/4 for the gold cup i'll be laying him from here till March. Baring a fall or injury nothing will beat Bobsworth on that day.
 
Zero market confidence in Hidden Cyclone. Have topped-up at 14.5, but have also covered with First Lieutenant at 18. It's a big price for a horse who ran well for 3m in a good Hennessy renewal.
 
I don't think it is coincidence that First Lieutenant's three best runs have come over here on ground officially described as good to soft or better.
 
It isn't, but the ground is nowhere near as bad as it was at Down Royal and he's value at 11/4 in the place market.
 
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