Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Bravo to trainer and jockey is correct. Nicholls is a genius with staying chasers.
I was just so into the Flemenstar story and the horse has real presence - I was just gutted he got beat.
Lexus Chase
- Thread starter chroniclandlord
- Start date
Bravo to trainer and jockey is correct. Nicholls is a genius with staying chasers.
I was just so into the Flemenstar story and the horse has real presence - I was just gutted he got beat.
Is that aimed at me?
EC1
On a break
i'm in the same mind Euro..really wanted him to be it at this trip....he travels so so well..but its not to be
He looks to have improved. With ground and track at Cheltenham likely to suit him better, he has a good chance, especially if Russell isn't riding him.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Eternally underrated horse. I was so focussed on Flemenstar that I didn't even contemplate him until Grassy mentioned him. Couldn't see him winning but he was too big in the place market. Backed him for the Ryanair.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
My initial thoughts.
Actually a shame Flemenstar didn't get home because he travelled like a dream. Another crack at the trip isn't necessarily tilting at windmills, though I fear that the Gold Cup trip is almost certainly going to prove beyond him at this stage of his career.
Otherwise, it's hard to see how the adjusted market can have SDC at 7/1 and both Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant at around 16/1. Whilst SDC wasn't stopping at the end today, the last two furlongs at Cheltenham are uphill, and it's altogether much sterner a stamina test than even today's race.
Neither FL or TB have any such stamina concerns, and given the Hennessy form looks rock-solid, both horses represent a fair bit of value, imo.
Bobs Worth backers entitled to be happy at this stage though.
Actually a shame Flemenstar didn't get home because he travelled like a dream. Another crack at the trip isn't necessarily tilting at windmills, though I fear that the Gold Cup trip is almost certainly going to prove beyond him at this stage of his career.
Otherwise, it's hard to see how the adjusted market can have SDC at 7/1 and both Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant at around 16/1. Whilst SDC wasn't stopping at the end today, the last two furlongs at Cheltenham are uphill, and it's altogether much sterner a stamina test than even today's race.
Neither FL or TB have any such stamina concerns, and given the Hennessy form looks rock-solid, both horses represent a fair bit of value, imo.
Bobs Worth backers entitled to be happy at this stage though.
EC1
On a break
it was like a finish to the epsom dash..amazing stuff
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
SDC stayed on well after jumping terrible in parts. He seems to reserve his best jumping for Cheltenham and he's the one to take out of the race.
In a big field Gold Cup Tidal Bay will be too far behind to win if they go a pace but could run up the hill to place.
Flemenstar best horse in the field by far
he does not stay
Ryan Air on soft ground can be ideal, if travelling to England well he is the one,
I dont think they will consider de Queen Mother with Sprinter Sacre around
Tidal Bay can run very well in the gold Cup if the ground is soft
Sir Des Champs, didnt jump, and is the gold cup horse in this field, better ground and course will be a help and at the moment is the most likely winner for me.
the main danger is Bobs Worth.
he does not stay
Ryan Air on soft ground can be ideal, if travelling to England well he is the one,
I dont think they will consider de Queen Mother with Sprinter Sacre around
Tidal Bay can run very well in the gold Cup if the ground is soft
Sir Des Champs, didnt jump, and is the gold cup horse in this field, better ground and course will be a help and at the moment is the most likely winner for me.
the main danger is Bobs Worth.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
In a big field in a Gold Cup SDC's jumping might fall apart again.
Some said the same about Tidal Bay before this race, which is over 2f shorter on a flatter track.
Factor in all the ifs, buts and maybes and SDC is too short in comparison to the other two - fact.
possible ryanair candidates
flemenstar
cue card
finians rainbow
first lieutenant
sizing europe
grands crus
champion court
riverside theatre
be some race if most of that lot turn up for it
Are you going to ridicule Sunybay for saying the same in the post just after yours? and many others who said similar? And any who discuss the Gold Cup, a race run at a different distance, with regard to this race?
My post was not very insightful, but perfectly innocent and posted withy a generous spirit. If you thought it unworthy you could have chosen to ignore it, instead you made the comment of a mean-spirited arsehole.
On The Bridle
At the Start
Great Race - gutted for Flemenstar - but you just have to love Tidal Bay... head in the clouds and flies through the gap late. In relation to Lynch's ride you could look at it two ways - he could have let him stride on in front and made his jumpimg tell or he could have held onto him half a furlong longer and sprint from the last.....we will never know. The only positive I can take from a Flemenstar perspective is that he may settle better after that today and may have learned a lot.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
In a big field in a Gold Cup SDC's jumping might fall apart again.
Some said the same about Tidal Bay before this race, which is over 2f shorter on a flatter track.
Factor in all the ifs, buts and maybes and SDC is too short in comparison to the other two - fact.
In a normal Gold Cup they will go a lot quicker than they did today. That will mean Tidal Bay will be that much further behind.
I fully expect a return to Cheltenham to bring about improvement in SDC's jumping. This won't be without precedent.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 13,884
Paul Nicholls on ATR saying they will keep TB fresh for Cheltenham now but that "the plan" has always been the Grand National.
EC1
On a break
what a waste..he needs getting in the GC not that egg and spoon job at Aintree
simmo
Senior Jockey
Surely a discussion is either pointless or not pointless. There are no degrees of pointlessness.
As for Mels initial comment - it seems fairly valid to me. Limiting discussion on the thread to the 3m Lexus would remove the requirement for any discussion of the possible effect on the Gold Cup market as it is not run over 3m and is also not the Lexus Chase or perhaps a discussion of the merits of Flemenstar's run making him look like a possible for the QMCC, which is also not the 3m Lexus Chase. In fact, it limits the discussion to the race itself and nothing else. Which seems pointless to me.
Attempting to do so in the rude manner that was evident earlier in the thread in very poor behaviour indeed, rendering the poster most deserving of the moniker "arsehole" as applied.
EC1
On a break
there is plenty of rudeness that goes uncommented on though on here..i think Hamm is under a microscope that others aren't tbh
low of 1.08
You have taken a tone that wasn't intended. My point was there is no point in discussing ifs and buts, only today's race conditions. Apologies.
Nearly every horse would need to be 12s+ at this stage to be any value what with all the uncertainty.