Lincoln Handicap 1/04/2023

I was trying to work out why Ivan Furtado had sold him to Andrew Hollinshead, when evidence suggested there were still (valuable) races in the UK to be won. Went for £30k, so not exactly cheap. Suggests there was nothing wrong, just AH thought they could get some better prize money out of French races.

I'd have preferred to see a mile rather than 7f...but it could be the last races were just for acclimatising. If Eagle is up in the 30s or higher on BF it'll be worth a go.


Well spotted, Outsider!!
 
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It's rained for the past 24 hrs here (25 miles away) and, though the straight me drains well, I'm expecting the ground to be borderline hvy come the morning.
 
This is reminding me of the old days when the Lincoln was all that flatties discussed throughout the winter, particularly in the foundry I worked in in 1977. Everyone had one that had been lined up, was handicapped to win etc. Great stuff.
 
Where do you want to be drawn in potentially heavy ground over a mile tomorrow?

Is there any conclusive evidence on that?
 
If Reet is right and it's soft/heavy..then the past recent ones where the times showed a slog, you need to look at the results of the 2018 + 2016 runnings to see if there was an advantage in the draw
 
EC21 said:
If Reet is right and it's soft/heavy..then the past recent ones where the times showed a slog, you need to look at the results of the 2018 + 2016 runnings to see if there was an advantage in the draw
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Yeah the nearest I got to this was when I went on the Lincolns wikipedia page, but it doesn't state what ground each years renewal was run on!! I'm just an amateur I really am!

At first I was worried when I saw your posts with Atrium in stall 13 but I see apart from Baradar, that six of the market leaders are all drawn 10 or higher. So that gives me a bit of comfort. He's got the market contenders pretty close to him anyway.
 
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In 2018 the first 6 home were drawn ............. 10,9,11,7,6,8

The last 6 were drawn............... 19,16,18,17,22,2
 
I used 2016 + 18 because they were really slow times Marb amongst the most recent times, suggesting a slog, which we probably facing tomorrow.
 
That might be an angle for some to go against the market leaders, apart from Baradar drawn in four.
 
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In 2016 it then contradicts the 2018 result, same again, bad ground, many high drawns won+placed in the race......... 22,18,21 filled 3 of first 4 places.

Check out the on pace horses, if one side looks like it is over paced, other side will probably come through late
 
It is never that easy Marb. If I was serious about this race..I would split it in 3 and treat it as 3 races.

Then I would be looking for where there is too much pace, then discard that section. In bad ground you don't want to be racing other on pace horses next to you early doors
 
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That sounds like hard work to me, EC1. Very interesting nevertheless.

I have already got 40 quid win on Atrium so here's hoping his turn of foot will see him go close!
 
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Marb said:
That sounds like hard work to me, EC1. Very interesting nevertheless.

I have already got 40 quid win on Atrium so here's hoping his turn of foot will see him go close!
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I hope you drag Marb, best of luck. I will be looking at this now with my very best anorak on:D. An anorak doesn't look at this as hard work, he relishes it:D
 
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I like your thinking on how to work out the pace etc.

I think the truth is I have had a belief since last season when I backed Atrium in his last win of the season that he was good for a big handicap.

He was scratched from the Cambridgeshire I think because the ground was plenty quick enough.

Then didn't make the cut in the Balmoral.

But that might help him tomorrow in terms of not carrying too much weight.

Enjoy being an anorak and please share your thoughts when you reach a conclusion.

Ta.
 
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2022 johan OR 102 drawn 4.3.19.1.5.9 g/s
2021 haqeeqy 100 10.15.1.9.14.8 good
2019 auxerre 100 17,22,14,11,9,12 good g/f in places
2018 addeyebb 99 10.9.11.7.6.8. Soft heavy in places
2017 Bravery 100 20 (but crossed over) 2.21.4.10.5 g/s
2016 secret brief 100 22.2 18.21.3.20 soft
2015 gabrial ? 15.6.19.12.7.18 good
2014 ocean tempest 102 3.22.20.18.14.16. Soft
 
Looking at it,it doesnt seem to matter where they are drawn if they are good enough.

Monsaabib is rated 98 and it looks like nothing under that.
 
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