Lincoln Handicap 1/04/2023

Terrible race, pure pin-sticking at the best of times and add in the ground. May as well stick a fiver on Roulette.
 
No.1 and No.2 first and second home.

Someone once told me you can still be top weight and be well enough handicapped to win. True today anyway.
 
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Euronymous said:
Terrible race, pure pin-sticking at the best of times and add in the ground. May as well stick a fiver on Roulette.
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I could understand the remark if rags had filled the frame but it was won by the top weight - by definition the best horse in the race - from the favourite, a 9/1 proven mudlark and the Cambridgeshire winner.

Hardly pinsticking stuff.
 
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Just before the off I went through all the horses to see which ones had won on heavy. They were Migration, Baradar, Boardman, Safe Voyage and Al Mubhir. Toshizou had won on yielding but I wasn’t sure if yielding counted. I don’t know why I bothered going through the card this morning. Did I back Migration? Of course not..
 
Trainer says he's aiming for black type with the winner now.
The horse is a gelding - so am I missing something?
 
Maybe if he’s got some youngsters, mares related to him it would increase their value?
 
He was one of only several that had won on heavy and had won over 10f. Even though he was top weight at that price I should have thrown some pennies at him at that price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I could understand the remark if rags had filled the frame but it was won by the top weight - by definition the best horse in the race - from the favourite, a 9/1 proven mudlark and the Cambridgeshire winner.

Hardly pinsticking stuff.
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On reflection, he was only the best horse because of the going. One to swerve on any less of a bog,imo.
 
Surely, reet, he was the best horse full stop because he was top weight. The ground arguably affected him adversely less than others but prior to the other day, the majority of his career top RPRs had 'good' in the going description.

I haven't seen it yet but it seems there's a sectional analysis saying it's very strong form (as I believe you suspected).
 
RP claimed it was strong form because of a strong 7th section (no doubt SR will say similar, as they're ATR's figures) and also maintain Migration is pattern class already.
What they fail to take on board is the early pace was far too strong, and the winner lagged, then picked up the pieces. He's unlikely to meet such circumstances again and I've little doubt the 2nd (Awaal) will prove the better horse in time.
 
Aye, don’t forget Awaal he was top-weight bar Migration and they were the class horses of the race. Baradar, 3rd, was the worst drawn of the top group, he dwelt a the start and lost ground by veering sharply towards the better ground. He came in for a lot of support on the day and looked the likely winner towards the end ‘til he ran out of puff (Kevin Stott reckoned it was a furlong too far for him). So he’s one to keep an eye on, too. All in all a classy outcome, I thought. Quite enjoyed Majestic as well :)
 
That's what stopped me backing Baradar,that extra furlong.
The weight stopped me backing Migration also he was a 7 yr old.
If I remember right I put him up first run last year at a big price (2nd16/1).
He was in my alerts.
 
His sire Alehebayeb is now standing at Meelin Stud near me covering half bred mares and TB mares .
Sire also of White Strand, so we may have a racehorse in three years time ; God give me patience and LOTS OF IT !
 
Euronymous said:
Terrible race, pure pin-sticking at the best of times and add in the ground. May as well stick a fiver on Roulette.
Click to expand...


Desert Orchid said:
I could understand the remark if rags had filled the frame but it was won by the top weight - by definition the best horse in the race - from the favourite, a 9/1 proven mudlark and the Cambridgeshire winner.

Hardly pinsticking stuff.
Click to expand...


Just re-visiting this thread and the race in researching the Spring Cup on Saturday. You're right DO, I was venting - as usual in a big field handicap mine finished nowhere (National even worse than the Lincoln this year.) Anyway it looks like Newbury will be soft on Saturday so I'll be swerving Jimi Hendrix (who will be very well handicapped when he gets summer ground again) and it's tough to look beyond Baradar who ran very well from a bad draw and likely was only beat by a couple of group horses at Donny. The bookies already up make Lattam fav but despite my love of a Haggas handicapper I have to oppose him given his last win was in Ireland and we saw with Safe Voyage going so close last year at Leopardstown that there flat handicappers aren't up to much.
 
barjon said:
Aye, don’t forget Awaal he was top-weight bar Migration and they were the class horses of the race. Baradar, 3rd, was the worst drawn of the top group, he dwelt a the start and lost ground by veering sharply towards the better ground. He came in for a lot of support on the day and looked the likely winner towards the end ‘til he ran out of puff (Kevin Stott reckoned it was a furlong too far for him). So he’s one to keep an eye on, too. All in all a classy outcome, I thought. Quite enjoyed Majestic as well :)
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Baradar 7f tomorrow.240a
 
So have I.
This is what trainer said, after Lincol:
"I'm very happy, he's run a big race and I think seven furlongs is his ideal. He bolted up here over seven on this ground. Kevin said he just didn't quite see it out as well as possibly stouter-bred horses."
10Oct20
York (7Sft, RPR 95)
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Definitely has to be considered but it's a hugely competitive race.

Here's my tuppenceworth, for those who can be arsed with ratings :lol::

(The BO column is for the best odds available at the time of compilation, in this case Thursday afternoon.)

[TABLE="width: 651"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
120+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD]3500-8
[/TD]
[TD] Rhoscolyn
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD]63409-
[/TD]
[TD] Perotto
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD]20354-
[/TD]
[TD] Ropey Guest
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD]679-57
[/TD]
[TD] Admiral D
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD]t?
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20
[/TD]
[TD]0978-5
[/TD]
[TD] Accidental Agent
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]127?
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD]1100-5
[/TD]
[TD] Fresh
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD]03834-
[/TD]
[TD] River Nymph
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD]0081-3
[/TD]
[TD] Baradar
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]7/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]6465-1
[/TD]
[TD] Rebel Territory
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]e p
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD]108-57
[/TD]
[TD] Toimy Son
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD]1425-7
[/TD]
[TD] Orbaan
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][122+]
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD]204-03
[/TD]
[TD] Safe Voyage
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]125oe
{131}
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]18/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]54-264
[/TD]
[TD] Darkness
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]001-32
[/TD]
[TD]* Vafortino
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD]095-62
[/TD]
[TD] Sir Dancealot
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]+{125o}
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD]3270-1
[/TD]
[TD] Spycatcher
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]**117
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 23
[/TD]
[TD]3112-3
[/TD]
[TD] Biggles
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD]231-21
[/TD]
[TD] Rainbow Fire
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD]61471-
[/TD]
[TD] Call Me Ginger
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]+p t
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18
[/TD]
[TD]87/111
[/TD]
[TD] Kingdom Come
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]+p AP
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]9/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD]1901-7
[/TD]
[TD] Totally Charming
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]+p v
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19
[/TD]
[TD]-22641
[/TD]
[TD] Tylos
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]p v
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD]2-1613
[/TD]
[TD] Zip
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]AT
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

You can see from the table that Rhoscolyn, once the money is down, will have a very serious chance in any handicap but this jockey booking puts me off. Perotto is also well handicapped again and has moved stables but his best form is all on fast ground. Ropey Guest looks a good marker for the race. He has very good course form, has the ground in his favour and is handicapped to win a decent Saturday race. Accidental Agent was beaten only a ½-length in this race last year off 109. I’m not convinced Admiral D will stay in the ground. The likes of Fresh and River Nymph act well on this track and in this ground and their trainers are more than capable of eking further improvement out of them. I do fear both horses. River Nymph is only a pound higher than when winning this race last year and Fresh is on the same mark as when taking a valuable handicap over CD in September. Safe Voyage and Sir Dancealot are older stagers who have hinted more than once that the ability is still there. Their odds are long enough to justify small savers but I’ll spread a bit more across Accidental Agent, Fresh and River Nymph to give me interests across the width of the track.
 
I agree on the capability of Fresh. Perhaps he can bag this handicap before they chuck him in the deep end in group races. I can see the case for Ropey Guest each way aswell.
 
I've been gagging for Admiral D to step up to this trip but agree with Dessie, unlikely stayer on this track on soft. Hopefully he'll finish mid pack and come down another couple of pounds.
 
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