Lockinge Stakes

SteveM said:
Goldikova has done that once a couple of seasons ago and her last half a dozen races have all hit around mid-120 (which is excellent).
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This is how you conduct the debate supporting Canford Cliffs EC1 rather than throwing your toys out of the pram when someone points out a basic fact. You obviously spend a lot of time pouring over the form (Queen Anne result aside :))and that should be respected but you also need to see that sometimes, others on the forum will have a different opinion to you and rather than thinking everyone is against you, take a leaf out of Steve's book.

As I say, well done to Canford supporters. On balance, he's the better horse out of the Hannon pair and I see DT's only chance against him on soft ground.

The miling division looks very interesting this year with a five year old supermare, a genuine top class three year old and a four year old clearly going places. Golden Lilac looked good today too, she might even join the party later in the season if she keeps improving.
 
I agree to a certain extent with Hamm. There is no point (for me) in being on here other than to attempt to answer racing's imponderables. In fact, it wound me up that people were going on so much about what a great Gold Cup it was, and I was made to feel churlish for pointing out that the form was worth dick all. People just wanted to cheer lead.

However, some of the "debate" going on here is unreal. We are all entitled to have a couple of horses for whom we cannot countenance defeat. And some that we consider to be over-rated in the extreme. But some people have hundreds of both, and would argue to the death about their opinions. When they are given evidence to the contrary, they rubbish it, ignore it and just retype more guff.
 
Examples:

Me and Sizing Europe/HF
Steve and Fame and Glory
EC and Goldikova
Ardross and Tom Queally

Keep adding!
 
Unfortunately I don't have as many in that basket.

Moving on. I think (depending on how the Isaphan goes) Goldikova could be my biggest bet in years in the Queen Anne if you could get 11/8. Did anyone ever do the fractions for last year's race as I felt Peslier went much too early (not really his fault) - I don't think he will make the same mistake again.

Is there anything bar the big 2 of any possible interest for the Queen Anne (this time last year Byword (went to PoW) and Dalghar were interesting.
 
I am coming round to the opinion that Goldikova may be too old and battle weary to do herself justice.

I would like to find a horse to take the other two on with. Canford Cliffs strikes me as a horse who will get a lot of money bet on him. Jan Vermeer and Cape Blanco are the only ones that come to mind.
 
Hamm said:
Unfortunately I don't have as many in that basket.

Moving on. I think (depending on how the Isaphan goes) Goldikova could be my biggest bet in years in the Queen Anne if you could get 11/8. Did anyone ever do the fractions for last year's race as I felt Peslier went much too early (not really his fault) - I don't think he will make the same mistake again.

Is there anything bar the big 2 of any possible interest for the Queen Anne (this time last year Byword (went to PoW) and Dalghar were interesting.
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Acoording to the bookie on Talksport this morning they were going 5/6 each of two. C/C & Gold.
 
Wouldn't her last run alleviate those fears though? It was perhaps (in terms of accelerating, to my eyes, several times) her most impressive run.

I think that angle is the right one at the moment, but any APOB horse must be 2/3 to 1 to even run in the race. I think Cape Blanco won't be winning any more races. I like Jan Vermeet but I think he should be running in the Isaphan this weekend (1m1 perfect starting point).
 
Hamm said:
Wouldn't her last run alleviate those fears though? It was perhaps (in terms of accelerating, to my eyes, several times) her most impressive run.

I think that angle is the right one at the moment, but any APOB horse must be 2/3 to 1 to even run in the race. I think Cape Blanco won't be winning any more races. I like Jan Vermeet but I think he should be running in the Isaphan this weekend (1m1 perfect starting point).
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Yeah, I agree. I want to bet against the top two, but I need to have a horse to back that is going to run. Glad I resisted backing Jan Vermeer when I saw the double figure Lockinge price last Monday.
 
Hamm said:
Wouldn't her last run alleviate those fears though? It was perhaps (in terms of accelerating, to my eyes, several times) her most impressive run.
In terms of actual rating this could be about her second best run which speaks highly for her holding at least most of her form this season. At six though I'd be surprised if she improves, although I'd still expect her to run well into the 120s this season.

This should leave it pretty clear for Canford (views on Frankel aside).
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Can you convince me what race Canford has ran to over 125 (not saying I think this is all Goldikova has, but as a marker)?
 
Sheikh said:
Why will Cape Blanco not be winning anymore races ?
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He looks a little bit dodgy (not a hound but..) but mostly because he is (this is jusy my opinion) this year, a little bit shy of top class but Ballydoyle will not run him in a Group 2 or 3, hence he won't have any good opportunities to secure a win.
 
Goldikova has not been posting her better figures since the Ispahan last season but even posting now a 126 , canford has to do a 130 to beat her, the percentage call is that she is very likely to beat him.
 
I think he's honest and his official rating 126 is accurate.I think they'll rest him now till Ascot. I like him and I'll be backing him. He doesn't have a big following so I think he'll be value.
 
sunybay said:
Goldikova has not been posting her better figures since the Ispahan last season but even posting now a 126 , canford has to do a 130 to beat her, the percentage call is that she is very likely to beat him.
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I think Canford is certain to run to 130 in his next race if he needs to. His style is to quicken and win decisively. He'll only do enough. The faster the opposition the better he is. I'd be amazed if Goldikova can do the same, even with her allowance (she's only done it once before).

Canford is not only very likely to win, but will also be the value if they are priced similarly.
 
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Hamm said:
Can you convince me what race Canford has ran to over 125 (not saying I think this is all Goldikova has, but as a marker)?
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I wouldn't try to convince you if you don't want to believe it but he was rated 130 when beating RVW. I believe he only did want he had to do in winning that and is better still.

I don't believe in adding pounds on for the ease of the win but I reckon 129/130 was very fair for that. Timeform may have him on a bigger rating (I'm not sure how they do things these days).

In summation I think he has already run to 130 and could run to better than that if required. I honestly don't think Goldikova can do the same now even with her allowance.
 
Canford beat Premio Loco in the Sussex (rated 119 with very little variance in the last 12 months) by 3.5 lengths - how do you equate that to a 130 for Canford?

In the St James, he beat Hearts of Fire a couple of lengths - same question?

This Lockinge ties in very closely with the Sussex as well.

I am not saying he can't run to more than 125, but I don't believe he has as yet but am open to being corrected!
 
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Hamm said:
Canford beat Premio Loco in the Sussex (rated 119 with very little variance in the last 12 months) by 3.5 lengths - how do you equate that to a 130 for Canford?

In the St James, he beat Hearts of Fire a couple of lengths - same question?

This Lockinge ties in very closely with the Sussex as well.

I am not saying he can't run to more than 125, but I don't believe he has as yet but am open to being corrected!
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I don't rate horses. But RPRs say he has run to 130 as they also tell us Goldikova has once raced to 131 a couple of seasons ago. Timeform probably have them both on a higher number.

I'm not too interested in the number as such whether its 7, 130 or 20,800. What does seem clear is that they have at their best run to about the same. With Goldikova's best likely to have happened already and Canford's best ahead of him, plus his style of running which doesn't try to achieve a high rating (the opposite of Frankel's Guineas performance), I'd say it's pretty clear who'll win.

If any horse can run to 130 against him, he'll go a bit higher..
 
No, I disagree - at their best, you could give Canford 126 (with a symbol of your choosing) and Goldikova 131-132 (see the post from TS above). Hence, in terms of what both have proven to date, Goldikova is 5/6 pounds, plus the mare allowance, better than Canford. She has consistently performed at the 126-128 range, which again, with the 3 pounds mare allowance, puts her 4/5 pounds clear of Canford (at the very least).

You are however free to show me how a 3.5 length beating of Premio Loco equals a rating of 130! :)

Of course we can all argue about what will happen in the future till the cows come home, but in terms of what has happened to date, she is well clear.

On top of that, I'd be concerned as a Queen Anne Canford backer where the improvement will come from. He's been hitting the 122-125/126 mark for a few races now, and I don't see what will suddenly allow him to be rated higher.
 
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