Lockinge Stakes

trackside528 said:
Do you honestly think Rip Van Winkle ran to 130 in the Sussex?

This is the first time I've heard this pace theory, by the way. Where are you getting that from? Watching it back last night, they looked to go a pretty genuine pace.

Goldikova smashed a 120 animal to smithereens in the Marois (arguably value for more than 6 lengths). The pertinent question, of course, is whether she can reproduce that form. I would certainly have my doubts that she can do it at Royal Ascot anyway.
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Haven't got access to timefigs at present but I remember backing Rip Van Winkle that day and felt sure he got first run and still couldn't win. But that also confirmed to me he wasn't as good as a 4-y-o. Or maybe we all overrated the 3-y-o form of Rip and Fame and Glory, and therefore too, Sea The Stars.
 
DJ: maybe, but nothing gets a horse sharpened up after a long break better than getting onto a track with the hurly-burly of others alongside. You know, I'm sure, that all the training in the world won't match getting the horse's eye in and brain engaged at full racing pace, as against the 3/4 speeds of training gallops with just a companion. So it's not an entirely disingenuous saying, if rather well-used.
 
Great race from Canford Cliffs who has proved he's trained on but I still believe he will only produce runs like that on ground with firm in it, ground I expect he'll see a lot of.

Ryan Moore got off Dick Turpin and told the owner don't run him on firm or fast ground again, he hated it and wasn't hard on him as he knew there was no point in getting after him. They said they'll probably go to France next but I don't know which race yet.
 
Canford shown he has train on
he posted a 128+ for me today, and he didnt win easily, in fact the italian horse was not pushed in the last 30yds

he needs firm ground , and is a similar horse to PAco Boy


Worthadd , very good run, last year when beaten by Rio was good form after a hard season.

Twice Over running below form.


Dick Turpin, good run again, improving his seasonal debut, he looks a big horse and definitively needs softer ground.
 
davidjohnson said:
Haven't got access to timefigs at present but I remember backing Rip Van Winkle that day and felt sure he got first run and still couldn't win. But that also confirmed to me he wasn't as good as a 4-y-o. Or maybe we all overrated the 3-y-o form of Rip and Fame and Glory, and therefore too, Sea The Stars.
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His mile and a quarter form wasn't as good either. I think the key to STS's rating is the pummeling he gave the King George winner in the Eclipse.
 
Like Suny earlier, I thought WORTHADD was a terrific performer. Chunky, stocky little horse with one hell of an attitude to getting on with it. Made all but one look pretty stuffy.
 
EC1 said:
you just said that Aqlaam was rock soild..he isn't.

like i said..if folk want to think G is a mid 130's or whatever..then all power to them
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JLM
16th Aug 2009
1m good ground
In 1m 33s 50, The time extremely fast compared with the big handicap of the day and with the group race of 2yo. Topspeed 131.

all the figures are mine and in a scale similar to RPR, not OR or timeform

Goldikova wins with a bit in hand RATING 135+
beating Aqlaam by 6 lenghts
Aqlaam posting 124 that day after having posted figures of 122, 121 and 120 before and going on to post after that a 124 when winning the Moulin beating Famous Name.
Virtual posting a 114 on the day, after posting a 120 in his last in the season before and running earlier in the year to 115 when beaten by Paco Boy at Sandown and 121 when winning the Lockinge. Afterwards he went on to run to 116 in the Moulin and ending the season in the Champion posting a 113.
Irian 112 in the day, posting a 112 and 114 in Germany before running in France to Lord Shanakil in the Chantilly gr1 posting a 119 , he has been sent to Hong Kong where he has run many good races including figures of 117, 120, 122,112, 112 and 118.

Runnaway 111 in the day, having run to this figure more than once including in that season in the Ispahan in the race won by Never On a Sunday.

Silver Frost 107, running afterwards to 113 and having won in the season the Poule in a 118 mark.
Never On Sunday and Gladiatorus gr1 winners running a bad race

That’s enough for me

Goldikovas previous race was also top class when winning the Astarte in a canter posting 129+ , beating the Poule winner Elusive Wave (121 on the day) posting her best nce in the day (119+ in the Poule).
Porviso, Saphresa and Reggane well beaten then .


I don’t know if she will be able to reproduce again but on that form only Hawk Wing in the Locking and possibly Frankel in the Guineas would have the beating of her since the days of Miesque.
 
sunybay said:
JLM
16th Aug 2009
1m good ground
In 1m 33s 50, The time extremely fast compared with the big handicap of the day and with the group race of 2yo. Topspeed 131.

all the figures are mine and in a scale similar to RPR, not OR or timeform

Goldikova wins with a bit in hand RATING 135+
beating Aqlaam by 6 lenghts
Aqlaam posting 124 that day after having posted figures of 122, 121 and 120 before and going on to post after that a 124 when winning the Moulin beating Famous Name.
Virtual posting a 114 on the day, after posting a 120 in his last in the season before and running earlier in the year to 115 when beaten by Paco Boy at Sandown and 121 when winning the Lockinge. Afterwards he went on to run to 116 in the Moulin and ending the season in the Champion posting a 113.
Irian 112 in the day, posting a 112 and 114 in Germany before running in France to Lord Shanakil in the Chantilly gr1 posting a 119 , he has been sent to Hong Kong where he has run many good races including figures of 117, 120, 122,112, 112 and 118.

Runnaway 111 in the day, having run to this figure more than once including in that season in the Ispahan in the race won by Never On a Sunday.

Silver Frost 107, running afterwards to 113 and having won in the season the Poule in a 118 mark.
Never On Sunday and Gladiatorus gr1 winners running a bad race

That’s enough for me

Goldikovas previous race was also top class when winning the Astarte in a canter posting 129+ , beating the Poule winner Elusive Wave (121 on the day) posting her best nce in the day (119+ in the Poule).
Porviso, Saphresa and Reggane well beaten then .


I don’t know if she will be able to reproduce again but on that form only Hawk Wing in the Locking and possibly Frankel in the Guineas would have the beating of her since the days of Miesque.
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if your scale is same as RPR's then you can knock off about 8lbs/10lbs to equate to OHR's

G has not run above a 125/126 just using OHR's of those she beat

like i said..if G is 130's horse how come each occasion she met PB there was little in it..PB is a 124 horse
 
Paco Boy run to 129 for me 3 times:
Queen Anne of Goldikova
Sussex of Rip Van wikle
Hungerford 2008


other good runs:
125 La Foret 10
126 JLMarois
128 Lockinge
124 Sandown Mile


125 queen anne 09
124 Sandown Mile

128 La foret 08
124 moulin
123 lennox
 
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OR are not interesting for me, I prefer my ratings and have in mind also the RPR or timeform.

OR in jumps in Ireland in handicap hurdles are a joke, you can see a Pierse hdl winner being a 165 horse and running that day on OR130

in flat they are very conservative with top class performances.
 
Good post Suny. I don't see how anyone can argue that he deserved a high 120s mark for his Sussex run.
 
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EC1 said:
G has not run above a 125/126 just using OHR's of those she beat
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I take you're using a single pound per length then for truly run mile races on decent ground then?

Anyway, the Paco Boy thing is surely like asking if Canford Cliffs is a 130+ horse, why can't he beat Premio Loco by more than 4 lengths. Remarkable consistency between the Sussex and the Lockinge!
 
trackside528 said:
I take you're using a single pound per length then for truly run mile races on decent ground then?

Anyway, the Paco Boy thing is surely like asking if Canford Cliffs is a 130+ horse, why can't he beat Premio Loco by more than 4 lengths. Remarkable consistency between the Sussex and the Lockinge!
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beating a 124 horse a head is 125..unless you've changed the rules of handicapping

i have never stated CC has run a 130..he's definately capable though when something good enough to push him looms up

He can beat PL further when that horse turns up that can push him.

i'd start reading my answers Track..because you are missing out most of my arguments...then moving on to some other nitpick..ie is 1lb = to 1 length..you must obviously think i'm a numpty to ask me that.

here's where i am..i don't think G has run much above a 125 OHR..anytime..thats OHR not RPR or TF or any other rating service..I think CC will run to an early to mid 130..on paper ..when pushed..although he has already beaten a 130 horse..which G hasn't.

i'm not spending anymore time on this..i've put more time in than anyone else putting my argument forward..enough is enough

if 99% of you on here think G is a mid 130's..OHR..then get your massive wads out when she meets CC..but don't come making excuses if she loses..just for a fookin change..be humble and admit you are wrong

what i mean by that is..comments like..CC is better than DT..ON TODAYS GROUND...are just avoiding admitting..i got it wrong....if it were obvious DT don't like fast ground then why is this thread littered with folk expecting DT to win today?

and if each time you experts are wrong..thats the best you can come up with..then there is no use me putting any arguments forward..it works like this..if I get it wrong..start threads laughing at my assessment..if you guys get it wrong..think of any excuse going why it didn't work out how you thought

its a bit sad when folk can't admit they got it wrong
 
I must be missing something EC - what 130 horse has Canford Cliffs beaten that Goldikova has not?
 
EC1 said:
Hamm - that just highlights how people don't read replies - not just you either

like i said..i've done on this one - just going round in pointless circles
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Humour me then. I think you've tied yourself in knots. Will you answer my question?
 
EC1 said:
beating a 124 horse a head is 125..unless you've changed the rules of handicapping

i have never stated CC has run a 130..he's definately capable though when something good enough to push him looms up

He can beat PL further when that horse turns up that can push him.

i'd start reading my answers Track..because you are missing out most of my arguments...then moving on to some other nitpick..ie is 1lb = to 1 length..you must obviously think i'm a numpty to ask me that.

here's where i am..i don't think G has run much above a 125 OHR..anytime..thats OHR not RPR or TF or any other rating service..I think CC will run to an early to mid 130..on paper ..when pushed..although he has already beaten a 130 horse..which G hasn't.

i'm not spending anymore time on this..i've put more time in than anyone else putting my argument forward..enough is enough
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Based on the OHR's you apparently place so much faith in, I cannot see any possible way you could rate a 6 length beating of a 120 animal with a a 117 horse beaten 12 lengths in third as anything less than 130!

This notion that the pace fell apart in the Marois is a non-starter in my book. If you look at Aqlaam he certainly wasn't legless at the line, and as sunybay points out, the time doesn't look anywhere near poor enough to suggest a pace collapse.

You seem to be obsessed with solely using Paco Boy as the marker for Goldikova, without seeming to take the ease of victory into consideration (which you so generously do for Canford Cliffs), or the fact that that is not even her best form.

For what it's worth I think both Goldikova and Canford Cliffs have actually run to similar figures (around the 132 mark), and the Hannon horse may be capable of higher yet. Two outstanding milers.
 
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swedish chef said:
Great race from Canford Cliffs who has proved he's trained on but I still believe he will only produce runs like that on ground with firm in it, ground I expect he'll see a lot of.

Ryan Moore got off Dick Turpin and told the owner don't run him on firm or fast ground again, he hated it and wasn't hard on him as he knew there was no point in getting after him. They said they'll probably go to France next but I don't know which race yet.
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The mass withdrawals at Newbury suggested it was pretty firm there yesterday . DT looked like a cat on hot bricks after a couple of furlongs .

CC was very impressive especially as they only went an ok clip . The Italian horse is plainly pretty good. Red Jazz and Twice Over were beaten out of sight - the latter has never looked like a miler and being third to Virtual in the race two years ago was form way short of this .

Can't wait for the Queen Anne - can't choose between the big two .
 
Hamm said:
Humour me then. I think you've tied yourself in knots. Will you answer my question?
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no..i haven't tied myself in any knots..its actually others doing that to themselves...read the thread properly and your answer is there

i'm not carrying on with it..its run its course..i'm not changing my view..and others won't either so there's no point..discussion exhausted
 
EC,

You said Canford had beaten a 130 rated horse while Goldikova has not. Please say who that horse is if you want your posts to have any credibility.
 
EC1 said:
here's where i am..i don't think G has run much above a 125 OHR..anytime..thats OHR not RPR or TF or any other rating service..I think CC will run to an early to mid 130..on paper ..when pushed..although he has already beaten a 130 horse..which G hasn't.
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Hamm said:
EC,

You said Canford had beaten a 130 rated horse while Goldikova has not. Please say who that horse is if you want your posts to have any credibility.
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credibility?..lol

Rip Van Winkle

read the thread properly next time :)

now list the 130 horses G has beat

no more at all on this no matter what you come back with
 
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