Lockinge

T

trackside528

At the Start
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Doesn't look a vintage renewal of the Lockinge, as Cesare's price would indicate IMO. If the Australian horse Haradasun is as good as Ballydoyle seem to think he is, he should probably be up to winning this race.

The only price that really interests me is 16/1 about Majestic Roi. A mile on fast ground seems to suit her ideally and her Sun Chariot form looks pretty solid to me. Tariq is the other interesting one- if he gets a mile, he could be hard to beat. He still has to prove that though, and I would be worried (as with Majestic Roi) about a potential lack of pace.

I know Chris is keen on Phoenix Tower.

What does everyone fancy?
 
I've been watching golf all day and had not looked at the updated prices. 5.3 Cesare is a must be for me. Even the Evs to be placed looks too big. I'd have thought he would be a 4/7 shot to fill the first 3.
 
Creachadoir is the one that interests me. I know Godolphin aren`t in the best of form (and that probably explains why he`s at longer odds than Phoenix Tower and Tariq) but their record in the Lockinge is second to none and it`s the three year olds one has to be wary of this time of year with the boys in blue.

A couple of the animals he beat when second in Hong Kong (Darjina and Floral Pegasus) were in front of him on his reappearence in Dubai so i`m discounting that run. Said run behind Good Ba Ba and his comfortable win at Newmarket in the Joel Stakes last back end look to me pretty much the best lines of form in this race (although i`m obviously not that up to speed with the Aussie form so Haradusun is a horse i`m a tad worried about) I hope to get 7/1 sometime tomorrow.

EDIT: Cesare would only be a bet for me if this was at Ascot.
 
Cesare has always been found out by proper Group 1 animals but is there one in here?

Haradasun was 7s for this in a couple of places when the prices went up on Monday. Now he's best priced 7/2. Would be interested to know what happened there.

I'd probably back Creachadoir if he was trained anywhere else right now.

Majestic Roi is no mug but the ground is currently only Good.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 16 2008, 07:21 PM
Cesare has always been found out by proper Group 1 animals but is there one in here?
Click to expand...
His best run outside of Ascot was his second in the Celebration Mile. He`s just not a value bet at current odds.
 
Totally agree, Euro. Held by Creachadoir on line through Heaven Sent (and that was at Ascot). Will be a very weak Group 1 that Cesare wins IMO.

Easing of the ground would be against quite a few (Creachadoir, Majestic Roi, Tariq) and might play into Phoenix Tower's hands? Just watched his Earl of Sefton win again; much more impressive than the eventual result implies.
 
Hopefully Mr Beek might be able to let us know how Phoenix Tower is doing. Think he said he was on at 16s for this?
 
He was certainly very keen on Phoenix Tower a week or so ago, and so are a few other shrewdies. PT's only raced four times, winning them all - but his best run was the short head beating of Traffic Guard, a good horse but no Group 1 animal [and I've followed that one closely]. On speed figures alone he has a lot to find with Cesare - but clearly lots of scope for improvement.

Regarding CESARE: there seems to be a tendency on the board to ignore the fact that some horses do improve from one season to another - they may be late developers, or have got over some small niggling problems... Whatever the reason, it does happen, esp from 2 to 3 as we all know - but almost as often from 3 to 4, and not unusually from 4 to 5. it's less usual in older horses, but not unknown. Over jumps, Neptune Collonges was a case in question the last season, and Exotic Dancer the season before. There have been egs on the flat too, tho it's true usually over further.

I see no reason why Cesare, given his general upward curve last year at the age of 6 [his Ocotber outing at Nmkt over 7f excepted] , shouldn't improve into a genuine Group 1 or at least Group 2 horse this year. And I agree a horse will not need to be top class Group 1 to win this Lockinge - you can only look at the race in terms of what's declared.

Cesare has won fto in both his last seasons and was 2nd in his first ever run; the only time he failed badly fto was in the Lincoln and he was probably not ready. He does put in the odd stinker but not at this stage of the season. He's lightly raced for a horse his age - has won 9 out of 19 races and been placed in 3 more - and has won on a variety of tracks other than Ascot. I see no reason why he won't win, and a place bet at evens certainly looks great value. My one disquiet is that looking at his pedigree, it wouldn't; surprise me if he needed further than a mile this year.

I too see Creachadoir as the danger, rather than Phoenix Tower, esp as Henry's don't seem to be on tiptop form right now, however marginally - mind you neither are Suroor's!
 
He's already a Group 2 horse, and I don't think anyone would argue that he didn't make a big leap at the start of last season which was then franked by his Summer Mile win and Celebration Mile second (where he came out comfortably best at the weights).

As unusual as it might have been for him to improve from 5 to 6, though, it's pushing it to think he might do so again from 6 to 7. However, as you say (and it's backed up by the ratings) simply running to his level might be enough anyway.

I don't see the analogy to the likes of Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer though - it's hardly unusual for chasers to improve in what were effectively their second season over fences.
 
It was just that those two chasers improved *beyond* what most of us had predicted [judging from comments on here and in the press] given their relatively unspectacular previous achievements; and I think Cesare demonstrated that kind of improvement last year. This may be related to his light campaigns previous to that, which to me indicate he may have had some kind of problem earlier. He didn't run at 2, either, and James likes to get a run into them if poss at 2.

I'm only musing on his race record, but why not?
If Cesare can improve again this year, then he does become a genuine Group 1 horse.
 
Haradasun has not won a race since April of last year, when he took out the time honoured Group 1 Doncaster Handicap over the metric mile at Royal Randwick.

His form in the spring was:

*4th August 2007 - MRC Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes: 6f at Caulfield
Track rated: GOOD
1. Apache Cat
2. HARADASUN
3. Honalee
Field also included: Maybe Better, Live In Vain, Minson and Apaiser.

*1st September 2007 - MRCGroup 2 Memsie Stakes: 7f at Caulfield
Track rated: GOOD
1. Miss Finland
2. HARADASUN
3. Tipwunguti
Field also included: Blutigeroo, El Segundo, Lad of the Manor, Falstaff, Niconero, Maybe Better, Activation, Efficient, Zuapone and Cinque Cento.

*15th September 2007 - MVRC Group 2 Dato Tan Nim Chin Nam Stakes: 1 mile at Moonee Valley
Track rated: GOOD
1. El Segundo
2. HARADASUN
3. Cinque Cento
Field also included: Lad of the Manor, Blutigeroo, Falstaff, Confectioner, Maybe Better, Activation, Efficient and Tipwunguti

*6th October 2007 - VRC Group 1 Turnbull Stakes: 10f at Flemington
Track rated: DEAD
1. Devil Moon
2. Scenic Shot
3. HARADASUN
Field also included: Tawqeet, El Segundo, Blutigeroo, Gallic, Marasco, Blue Monday, Zipping, Efficient, Cinque Cento, Douro Valley, Molotov and Eskimo Queen.

*27th October 2007 - MVRC Group 1 Cox Plate: 10f at Moonee Valley
Track rated: GOOD
1. El Segundo
2. Wonderful World
3. HARADASUN
Field also included: Lad of the Manor, Niconero, Marasco, Zipping, Efficient, Magic Cape, Divine Madonna, Miss Finland, Devil Moon and Eskimo Queen

*3rd November 2007 - VRC Group 1 LKS Mackinnon Stakes: 10f at Flemington
Track rated: GOOD
1. Sirmione
2. Princess Coup
3. Zipping
Was 13th in the field of 14. Field also included: Railings, Tawqeet, Maybe Better, Douro Valley, Scenic Shot, Captious, Annenkov, Miss Finland, Devil Moon and Pillar of Hercules.
 
Where is the pace in this race? Is it in anything's interest to make it a test? Do we expect a crawl?

Everyone remembers Rakti and particularly Hawk Wing's front running performances, but the three fillies to win it in the last 4 years have (to varying degrees) been held up off the pace.
 
The cause of the drop in Haradasun's price is possibly Kieren Fallon's newsletter which says he has been working well at Ballydoyle. I've had a speculative reverse forecast on him and his stablemate, Astronomer Royal.

Both are proven Gr1 animals in a race where many of those prominent in the betting are not. If Astronomer Royal comes back to his form of last spring it might pay off.

I would be surprised to see further improvement from Cesare and have similar thoughts to others about Creachadoir. He could be the one, but his last run is a worry.




Btw, don't forget Neptune Collonges won a Gold Cup at Punchestown the season before last.
 
Astronomer Royal is the one I have been looking at all morning, hence my wondering about pace. Majestic Roi is another that could crop up in the places if there is a decent gallop.
 
Originally posted by betsmate@May 17 2008, 11:08 AM
Where is the pace in this race? Is it in anything's interest to make it a test? Do we expect a crawl?
Click to expand...
Just the thing I was wondering, Betsmate. Just looking at Haradasun's Oz races, I wonder will he jump out and make it if nothing fancies going on.

The combination of the easing of the ground, the pace question and R. Hughes have kept me from getting involved with Majestic Roi.

I don't think the easing of the ground will have done Creachadoir or Tariq any favours. If I had to back one at this stage, I'd be leaning towards Phoenix Tower.
 
Could be completely wrong, but I thought AR would be used as a rabbit for Hardansan as he seems to have gone backwards from his Poulais, St James runs
 
There are a few that like to be prominent, if not out-and-out pacemakers. Haradasun certainly falls in that category and I hope you are right Trackside that he goes on [and sets it up nicely for his stablemate :D].
 
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