Lockinge

143 Timeform
135 OR
9/9

He has battered everything that has been put in his path, including exceptional multiple Group 1 winners, and numerous other high class performers. The only exception is Royal Ascot but I think there were enough excuses to forgive him that small discrepancy.

I don't think there is any doubt that he is one of the best of all time. The only thing he has to prove this year is whether he is the best we have ever seen.

Odds of 3/1 about Excelebration suggest he has a 25% chance of winning. That is nowhere near a true reflection of his chance IMO. The reason why he is that price is obvious (EW thieves) but it's awful awful value as far as I'm concerned.
 
Zenyatta said:
143 Timeform
135 OR
9/9

He has battered everything that has been put in his path, including exceptional multiple Group 1 winners, and numerous other high class performers. The only exception is Royal Ascot but I think there were enough excuses to forgive him that small discrepancy.

I don't think there is any doubt that he is one of the best of all time. The only thing he has to prove this year is whether he is the best we have ever seen.

Odds of 3/1 about Excelebration suggest he has a 25% chance of winning. That is nowhere near a true reflection of his chance IMO. The reason why he is that price is obvious (EW thieves) but it's awful awful value as far as I'm concerned.
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Think it would be fairer to say one of the best of all time over a mile currently.

I tend to think when he steps up in trip he is going to improve and personally providing he got the 1m 2f easy enough I would have a crack at the Arc end of the season.

To keep him in training alone is an incredibly sporting decision and so why not have some fun with it.
 
Absolutely. The thing which struck me was how he was really powering away from Excelebration and Immortal Verse near the line. He looked for all the world like 10f would suit even better. It's hard to believe but it just might be true.
 
It should be said that Strong Suit could run a really big race. He looked very good at Newmarket in the Group 2 at the back end of last season. He may well give O'Brien's horse a race. Frankel will probably be too good for them all though.
 
9/1 EW with Bet365 for 3 places on Strong Suit makes more appeal than 11/4 or 5/2 about Excelebration to me.
 
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only 1.6 place on Betfair, 15 the win, for tiny amounts... back to the drawing board. :(
 
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Strong Suit wouldn't stay Newbury's mile on a bus - particularly at the pace this is likely to be run at.
 
reet hard said:
Strong Suit wouldn't stay Newbury's mile on a bus - particularly at the pace this is likely to be run at.
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Don't see why not. He's bred to get a mile and has won at 7 furlongs as a 3yo, just failing to win at Group 1 level at a mile by a neck. I don't think we can say he doesn't get a mile. The question is though will any of them get a mile at the rate pace Frankel is likely to go.
 
SteveM said:
Don't see why not. He's bred to get a mile and has won at 7 furlongs as a 3yo, just failing to win at Group 1 level at a mile by a neck. I don't think we can say he doesn't get a mile. The question is though will any of them get a mile at the rate pace Frankel is likely to go.
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"Just failing to win at gp1 level" by not lasting home - around a sharp Chantilly in a race run at a crawl.
Trust me - I'm a doctor.
 
It's a race to savour rather than bet in. The only way Frankel gets beat this year is if he runs four or five pounds below his best when stepped up in trip and Cirrus Des Aigles has improved enough to make that count. Or they run him over more than a mile and a half and Nicky brings Sprinter Sacre out.
 
Marble said:
EC1, yes please do do an anaylsis of improvement from 3 to 4 and let us now how you get on. Generalisations are not good enough in the case.
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courtesy of Flatstats:

sire: Exceed & Excel

2yo: 100/693 = 14.4% = A/E 0.87
3yo: 62/589 = 10.5% = A/E 0.82
4yo: 23/233 = 9.9% = A/E 0.96
5yo+: 6/82 = 7.3% = A/E 0.74

In % terms there isn't an improvemnt..the A/E improves at 4 though

from that i wouldn't be expecting bags of improvement tbh
 
courtesy of Flatstats:

sire: Exceed & Excel

2yo: 100/693 = 14.4% = A/E 0.87
3yo: 62/589 = 10.5% = A/E 0.82
4yo: 23/233 = 9.9% = A/E 0.96
5yo+: 6/82 = 7.3% = A/E 0.74

In % terms there isn't an improvemnt..the A/E improves at 4 though

from that i wouldn't be expecting bags of improvement tbh
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Would improvement stats be more relevant if linked with a trainer ?

I'm probably picking one of a minority but I'm sure Stoute let plenty of horses develop slowly, peaking at 4 yo. Compare him to Hannons usual 2 yo campaigners from a few yours ago, the progeny improvement would surely have a different slant.
 
Euronymous said:
It's a race to savour rather than bet in. The only way Frankel gets beat this year is if he runs four or five pounds below his best when stepped up in trip and Cirrus Des Aigles has improved enough to make that count. Or they run him over more than a mile and a half and Nicky brings Sprinter Sacre out.
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:lol: That'd be a proper race, forget Black Caviar!
 
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reet hard said:
"Just failing to win at gp1 level" by not lasting home - around a sharp Chantilly in a race run at a crawl.
Trust me - I'm a doctor.
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In that case I'll seek a second opinion.:) Pulled hard and beaten by two very good horse rather than the trip and has come on a ton since. They shouldn't be shying 8 furlong races with him doc.
 
I want to see Black Caviar and Big Buck's take each other on, they're the two with the record winning sequences after all.

A best of three might be the fairest way to go, an 8f hurdle around a bend, 12f at Newmarket, and finally a coursing-style buckle where they compete, in a confined space and without jockeys, to be the first to trample the next jockey to be suspended for whip abuse .
 
Grey said:
I want to see Black Caviar and Big Buck's take each other on, they're the two with the record winning sequences after all.

A best of three might be the fairest way to go, an 8f hurdle around a bend, 12f at Newmarket, and finally a coursing-style buckle where they compete, in a confined space and without jockeys, to be the first to trample the next jockey to be suspended for whip abuse .
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4/6 Black Caviar
5/4 Big Bucks
 
Grey said:
I want to see Black Caviar and Big Buck's take each other on, they're the two with the record winning sequences after all.

A best of three might be the fairest way to go, an 8f hurdle around a bend, 12f at Newmarket, and finally a coursing-style buckle where they compete, in a confined space and without jockeys, to be the first to trample the next jockey to be suspended for whip abuse .
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This would send crowd attendances through the roof. Excellent initiative! I like the best of three suggestion... very fair.
 
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