Lockinge

If Frankel is going to be beaten today is the big chance for his opponents.

Firstly, there is the fact that this is his seasonal debut and his debut last season was a fair bit off the rest of his form.

Then there is the interrupted preparation. Can't possibly have helped and I take gallop reports with a pinch of salt.

My ratings for Frankel fall a long way short of the commercial firms although I do believe he is better than my bare figure but several reliable-looking lines with Rio De La Plata suggest Frankel is seriously over-rated at 143 by Timeform.

Queally is a major negative on any horse, let alone a good one.

Excelebration has had a run and can be expected to improve for it.

Frankel has form in soft but Excelebration arguably has better form in soft.

Frankel will probably win but I'll be very surprised if it is the walk in the park that most people seem to be anticipating. I think there might be less than a length in it either way, in which case Excelebration is the better value.
 
If Frankel is ever beaten it is probably today (although I don't expect that to happen).

Excelebration 1.34 the place on Betfair is probably slightly preferable to the win on Frankel. Forecast looks straightforward.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
If Frankel is going to be beaten today is the big chance for his opponents.

Firstly, there is the fact that this is his seasonal debut and his debut last season was a fair bit off the rest of his form.

Then there is the interrupted preparation. Can't possibly have helped and I take gallop reports with a pinch of salt.

My ratings for Frankel fall a long way short of the commercial firms although I do believe he is better than my bare figure but several reliable-looking lines with Rio De La Plata suggest Frankel is seriously over-rated at 143 by Timeform.

Queally is a major negative on any horse, let alone a good one.

Excelebration has had a run and can be expected to improve for it.

Frankel has form in soft but Excelebration arguably has better form in soft.

Frankel will probably win but I'll be very surprised if it is the walk in the park that most people seem to be anticipating. I think there might be less than a length in it either way, in which case Excelebration is the better value.
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A very good post and coherent argument. I hope Excelebration wins, but if every bet is as well argued as that, you can't go wrong.
 
My opinion hasn't changed on this. Excelebration still the one for obvious reasons. Unless you believe Frankel is a clear cut superior animal based on their 3yo form you have to think Excelebration could win at them prices.
 
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I cannot understand the opposition to Frankel, especially with Excelebration at that price.

Frankel to win as he has done in his last 9 races.
 
Frankel will win. Excelebration will be second. Watch the race without a bet, back Frankel to win, do the forecast or Excelebration in the w/o market, any other investment in the race comes straight from the Greek book of fiscal management.
 
Marble said:
My opinion hasn't changed on this. Excelebration still the one for obvious reasons. Unless you believe Frankel is a clear cut superior animal based on their 3yo form you have to think Excelebration could win at them prices.
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do you think Excelebration would beat Frankel 3 times every 12 times they run against each other?

i think the only time E would bet F is when F isn't 100%..1 in 20..1 in 30

3/1 is a poor price imo..real bad value
 
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I am not having a bet,

Frankel is the best horse I have seen,
I was surprised they leave him in training, and given he is in one of the shrewest operations it is likely they improve or at least train on, but you can not know until you see it in the racecourse.
The ground should not be a problem and his form is quite solid in 140 or better


But today is not a cakewalk
Excelebration is the best miler apart Frankel in the last 5 o 6 seasons with Golddikova and there is a chance he improves once he is now with a better trainer, he also has a race in the body this seaosn and has course and ground form, he will be a stallion but today could be his main target of the season trying to beat the mighty horse.
 
sunybay said:
I am not having a bet,

Frankel is the best horse I have seen,
I was surprised they leave him in training, and given he is in one of the shrewest operations it is likely they improve or at least train on, but you can not know until you see it in the racecourse.
The ground should not be a problem and his form is quite solid in 140 or better


But today is not a cakewalk
Excelebration is the best miler apart Frankel in the last 5 o 6 seasons with Golddikova and there is a chance he improves once he is now with a better trainer, he also has a race in the body this seaosn and has course and ground form, he will be a stallion but today could be his main target of the season trying to beat the mighty horse.
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I'm not betting..but i think E will be getting a 3 to 4 length view of Frankels backside
 
Steve T said:
Watch the race without a bet,.
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I do that all the time and I'm hardly a bet thirsty person who just gives opinions and bets on here without fancying them.

You go on to say back Frankel and do a forecast! Only a Greek finance minister could claim that was having a bet FFS:)
 
Excelebration is a great price if he wins, that is surely the bottom line. It's a two horse race so you're not going to be getting 6/1 are you?
 
Marble said:
I do that all the time and I'm hardly a bet thirsty person who just gives opinions and bets on here without fancying them.

You go on to say back Frankel and do a forecast! Only a Greek finance minister could claim that was having a bet FFS:)
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:lol:

aye..just enjoy it...you can have a bet every day of your life..you won't be watching Frankel everyday though
 
Aye, lets enjoy what will hopefully be great race fellas.

And I ment to say, only a greek finance minister could think backing Frankel and doing a forecast was not having a bet.

Steve M, don't take up a career in politics, it will be like Gordon Broon all over again:)
 
Marble said:
Aye, lets enjoy what will hopefully be great race fellas.

And I ment to say, only a greek finance minister could think backing Frankel and doing a forecast was not having a bet.

Steve M, don't take up a career in politics, it will be like Gordon Broon all over again:)
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You clearly have difficult understanding, hence you're thinking of backing Excelebration to win. I don't have the time or inclination to explain it to you, everyone else seems to get it.
 
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