MCR Hurdle - Leopardstown 9th Jan

EC1 said:
maiden wins tell you very little about a horse's ground preference imo - i tend to ignore them tbh.
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Suoday will be a race where plenty of horses will go off too short. The Martin horse that is second fav is a million in my opinion, you could give Prima Vista another stone and he would finish in front of him. If any horse has pounds in hand it's Prima Vista, not anything that finished in behind.
 
Personally, if a horse wins on it, no matter how poor the maiden maybe, you know at least he acts on it, especially in extreme circumstances, the ground was terrible that day at Leopardstown.
 
I would have serious stamina doubts about Tijuana Dancer. Can't see the likely testing ground being up his street ~ will prove best with the emphasis firmly on speed imo.

Some Slam would be interesting on better ground. Possibly one to bear in mind for handicaps come the Spring, having been transferred (like Time Electric - perhaps Duffin is finally copping on) from the care of Tom Mullins.

Will have a proper look tomorrow night, though this is a race that has never been kind to me.
 
sunybay said:
McCoy on any horse is a negative for me nowdays.
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Gearoid said:
Suoday will be a race where plenty of horses will go off too short. The Martin horse that is second fav is a million in my opinion, you could give Prima Vista another stone and he would finish in front of him. If any horse has pounds in hand it's Prima Vista, not anything that finished in behind.
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That's my reading of it too - going to have a decent bet on him tomorrow.
 
Look it's one of those races. I would respect most peoples opinion on the race. I just don't understand how a horse like Fosters Cross was initially put in at 12/1 by Ladbrokes. The first thing that came to mind was his win on the flat. I assumed the 2nd or 3rd must have won over hurdles but that's not the case. He is rated around his chase mark so can someone please explain how he is handicapped to win the hottest Irish 2 mile handicap of the season?
 
Gearoid said:
Look it's one of those races. I would respect most peoples opinion on the race. I just don't understand how a horse like Fosters Cross was initially put in at 12/1 by Ladbrokes. The first thing that came to mind was his win on the flat. I assumed the 2nd or 3rd must have won over hurdles but that's not the case. He is rated around his chase mark so can someone please explain how he is handicapped to win the hottest Irish 2 mile handicap of the season?
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He's not the only one - there "seems" to be a lot of badly handicapped and past their sell by date contenders in this field. Not a race to go wild in but PV has the right profile - is in form - has a decent weight and is from a stable in form. 5/1 is very fair.
 
Prima Vista is running with a 15 pounds penalty,
just a point , because it looks people think he is running with the same weight of his last race.

about the irsh system
it is so absurd that it would not work even in France

how a horse can run with a very different weight in a race where the weights were public well before.

just imagine a situation like this
Prima Vista beats Tijuana by half a lenght and the 3rd finish 65 leghts behind
and PV is put 25 pounds and Tijuana runs in the same mark, simply absurd



this Prima Vista remembers me to Mullins Imperial Hills when winning that day and ruinning his mark for the Pierse



also another thing difficult to explain
is the jockey booking
why P. Carberrywas on Martins the other day when almost every people in Ireland was backing him and now the jockey switched to this one.
 
Only time I think I ever picked the winner of this was Adamant Approach. Feeling old realising that was 2002.
 
johnjdonoghue said:
Personally, if a horse wins on it, no matter how poor the maiden maybe, you know at least he acts on it, especially in extreme circumstances, the ground was terrible that day at Leopardstown.
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but you don't really know it acts on it in a maiden..they are introductory/learning races where horses are not pushed to their maximum.

a horse's real ground preference will only be seen when fully pushed in a proper horse race.

i've fell for this in the past..thinking a horse likes X going because it won a maiden on it..in my experience its a mistake to assume it..thats why i ignore them..similarily.. judging a horse's trip on a maiden win is also a fatal error.
 
EC1 said:
but you don't really know it acts on it in a maiden..they are introductory/learning races where horses are not pushed to their maximum.

a horse's real ground preference will only be seen when fully pushed in a proper horse race.

i've fell for this in the past..thinking a horse likes X going because it won a maiden on it..in my experience its a mistake to assume it..thats why i ignore them..similarily.. judging a horse's trip on a maiden win is also a fatal error.
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There's plenty of sense in this. The Chepstow bumper today is a case in point, I suspect, even though it was a tight finish.
 
Fair enough EC, I will bear this in mind for the future.

For what its worth I think Final Approach is the one I like in tomorrow's race.
 
If you look at a lot of the top horses we discuss John..you can see it regularly..when they first start in novice hurdles where the oppo is probably poor in comparison to an above average hurdler..a decent horse can win just because the oppo ain't good enough...the ground is just an aside ..not relevant at that stage.

Denman could be an example..won a number of nov hurdles on good ground..but it could be argued his favoured ground is with give when running against proper oppo later in his career.
 
johnjdonoghue said:
For what its worth I think Final Approach is the one I like in tomorrow's race.
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Was very interested to read Mullins's thoughts on the horse's chances on his website, particularly given that the owner was responsible for the D Four Dave "coup" over the summer:

"Final Approach (Paul) is owned by the sponsor and has been trained with this race in mind. He has had only one run in a handicap but we are expecting a big run here."

I'm actually surprised Final Approach is as big as 14's considering his profile.
 
Shows the strength of support for Prima Vista, though 14-1 about a horse who I think is a head of the handicapper based on his third at the Punchestown festival in April.
 
trackside528 said:
Was very interested to read Mullins's thoughts on the horse's chances on his website, particularly given that the owner was responsible for the D Four Dave "coup" over the summer:

"Final Approach (Paul) is owned by the sponsor and has been trained with this race in mind. He has had only one run in a handicap but we are expecting a big run here."

I'm actually surprised Final Approach is as big as 14's considering his profile.
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He's not anymore - you would have to be taking a lot of things on trust with this fella - very little experience would be one - I don't think Mullins knows himself which is his best chance in the race but I will save on this one. He has the most scope for improvement beyond Prima Vista and us still a little bit of value at 12/1. I don't think he will be any more than 10/1 at the off - more like 8/1. Both he and PV will be punted tomorrow.
 
Laziness on my part, OTB! He arguably travelled as well as any through the race at Fairyhouse last time as well, only to weaken on the run-in. I would certainly have him ahead of the likes of New Phase and Tijuana Dancer anyway.

Will be interesting to see which way he goes in the market tomorrow.
 
trackside528 said:
Laziness on my part, OTB! He arguably travelled as well as any through the race at Fairyhouse last time as well, only to weaken on the run-in. I would certainly have him ahead of the likes of New Phase and Tijuana Dancer anyway.

Will be interesting to see which way he goes in the market tomorrow.
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Do you fancy him Track?
 
Very difficult to be dogmatic about anything in this but he certainly looks to have the right profile for the race. Had a small bet at 14's.
 
Just going through the race here myself. Anyone know much about New Phase?

Looking at his form he should like the ground conditions, looks on the improve and stable would have to be respected. 56 days since his last run, this may have been the plan for some time.
 
Two things about the bumper tomorrow. How does Willie Mullins not have a runner and has anyone else been hearing the cliches being banded about for Waaheb, Cheltenham bumper, catching pigeons, machine etc.
 
Gearoid said:
Two things about the bumper tomorrow. How does Willie Mullins not have a runner and has anyone else been hearing the cliches being banded about for Waaheb, Cheltenham bumper, catching pigeons, machine etc.
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Heard he gets back to his box before the others have pulled up!!
 
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