Melbourne Cup 2007

Very interesting stuff everyone, thanks - and welcome, Wenona!

Scorpion 16 on Betfair now, quid that is, and Mahler 18, so I've had a little nibble at both. They would probably rather Scorpion won this year but his temperament may go against him - I think they will run on their merits and not as the usual Ballydoyle 'team'. The field is surely too large, let alone the pace too strong, for pacemaking!

It's surely the best chance Ballydoyle will have for a while, given the quarantine situation
 
Has someone at the RP been reading this thread? :P

Mahler allotted feather-weight for Melbourne Cup bid

by Racing Post staff

IT IS very rare for a Northern Hemisphere-bred three-year-old to tackle the Melbourne Cup, but the Australian weight for age scale makes concession for those born above the equator, and Irish-raider Mahler looks well treated in this year's renewal.

The Australian handicapper uses a separate scale of allowances for horses foaled between 1 January and 31 July, which means that all horses can compete off a reasonable mark regardless of which side of the line they were born.

The Argentinian-bred Asiatic Boy wasn't afforded quite such a luxury when he raced in Britain this summer, having to race as an older horse and shouldering more weight than he would have in an equivalent race in the Southern Hemisphere.

Mahler is set to receive a 4kg age allowance down under, which is roughly the same as the 9lb he would get from senior horses under the British system.

The Ballydoyle colt has been allotted a feather-weight of 50kg for Australia's premier race and, judged on the Racing Post Ratings he has achieved this season, he should have a leading chance.
He showed he has the requisite stamina by landing the Group 3 Queen's Vase over 2m in June and he improved on that effort to finish just a length behind Lucarno in the St Leger last time out, picking up a career best RPR of 119.

A repeat performance would make him a leading player in the Flemington feature, where he currently ranks among the top four contenders on adjusted RPRs.

Scenic Shot heads the field after picking up a mark of 118 for his close second behind Devil Moon in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes over 1m2f on Saturday.

The five-year-old is also engaged in the Caulfield Cup on 20 October, where he could face a number of other Melbourne Cup hopefuls, including recent Mornington winner Annenkov, who isanother with a good chance on the figures.

Top adjusted RPRs

Scenic Shot 133
Annenkov 129
Mahler 129
Tungsten Strike 129
Blutigeroo 128
Princess Coup 128
Cinque Cento 127
Douro Valley 127
Railings 127
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lol ..... Oh boy, I just hope they're right.

Good days racing at Caulfield today with a couple of horses standing up in relation to the Cups.

Maldivian again showed he is the up and comer of the moment, winning the Group 1 WFA race over 2000m. Now around $3.30 for the Caulfield Cup and with 52.5 looks thrown in. Never run at 2400m but he's just been so dominant his last two runs I wouldn't go against him. Into around $18 in the Melbourne Cup. Two miles obviously the big query here, but he is by Zabeel. Looks by far the best weighted local in either Cup.

Master O'Reilly is the other who stepped forward today wining the Group2 2400m handicap race. That now qualifies him for both Cups and I assume he'll get a penalty for the Melbourne Cup which should see him into the final field. Another progressive local who has a chance.


On Mahler - does anyone know when he and Scorpion are leaving for Australia?
 
Originally posted by Wenona@Oct 13 2007, 03:43 AM

On Mahler - does anyone know when he and Scorpion are leaving for Australia?
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From the RP ...O'Brien also confirmed that, all being well, Melbourne Cup hopefuls Mahler and Scorpion will be setting off from Ballydoyle to Flemington on Saturday.
 
Damien Oliver will replace Kerrin McEvoy aboard Purple Moon.

Nice to see an experienced proven Melbourne Cup winning jockey on the horse.

Surely a huge boost to his chances considering the other possible names been mentioned to replace McEvoy.
 
More terrible news for the O'Brien stable - Scorpion's lame and it looks like he's out of the Cup.
 
Arse.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/horseracing/sco...3618779783.html

Scorpion out of Cup

October 29, 2007 - 4:15PM

Leading Irish stayer Scorpion is set to be withdrawn from the $5m Melbourne Cup continuing a disastrous couple of days for global breeding giant Coolmore Stud.

The six-year-old stallion, which was set to carry the No.1 saddle cloth in tomorrow week's Melbourne Cup, pulled up lame after trackwork at Sandown this morning with trainer Aidan O'Brien ordering the Coronation Cup winner to be X-rayed.

An announcement is expected later this afternoon.

Scorpion was one of 39 horses left in the Melbourne Cup at today's third declaration stage and was on the fifth line of betting at $13 with Sportsbook.com.au.

Stablemate Mahler remains in the Melbourne Cup with local jockey Stephen Baster set to ride.
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What a lovely weekend for connections. Mind you he is still around so given the events of the weekend it could be worse.
 
From one of the Aussie reports:

INTERNATIONAL raider Scorpion is out of the Melbourne Cup after pulling up lame following a track gallop yesterday.

While the injury to a hind leg is not career-threatening, there is not enough time for Scorpion to recover to take his place in next Tuesday's $5 million Emirates Melbourne Cup.

It was a further blow for Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien, who is still coming to terms with the horrific fallout from Sunday's Breeders' Cup meeting in the US in which his champion George Washington had to be euthanised.

Just hours before he was due to board a plane in Los Angeles bound for Melbourne, O'Brien, considered the world's best trainer, was told the news.

O'Brien arrives today and will inspect his three-time Group 1 winner at the Sandown quarantine centre.

Lumbered with the top weight of 58.5kg for the Cup, bookmakers rated Scorpion -- runner-up to stablemate Yeats in the Irish St Leger at his most recent start -- a $13 chance.

O'Brien will now be represented only by Mahler, aged three by northern hemisphere time and the youngest horse in the Cup. Mahler is a $10 chance in TAB Sportsbet's readjusted market.

Travelling foreman Andrew Murphy made two calls to O'Brien yesterday.

The first was to inform him Scorpion and Mahler had worked extremely well in their first serious gallop at Sandown since they arrived six days earlier.

Respected track clocker Les Obriem timed Scorpion to run the final 1200m of his 1400m workout with Mahler in 1min 20.25sec; his last 600m in 39.25sec and his last 400m in 24.5sec.

Obriem described it as "nice, strong work"Six hours later Murphy called O'Brien again. This time the news was not good. "It was not a nice call to make," Murphy said.

"One minute everything is great, then the next this happens. That's the uncertainty of it," Murphy said.

Scorpion was identified last year by jockey Kieren Fallon as the ideal Melbourne Cup horse.

The six-year-old was considered sharper, more adaptable and more versatile than Yeats, who finished seventh last year in O'Brien's first Cup tilt.

Murphy told O'Brien that when Scorpion was taken from his box in the afternoon, he was lame.

Breeding giant Coolmore sent its own vet Ciara Gibney out with the horses. It was immediately apparent Scorpion would not be a Cup starter.

The prognosis was that while the injury was significant, Scorpion would be able to continue racing next year.

X-rays will be taken today and every measure taken so Scorpion is right to travel back to Ireland with Mahler after the Cup.

"At least we still have a horse unlike yesterday when one had to be destroyed," Murphy said.

"If there's one consolation, it's that we brought out two horses and we still have one of them.

"We still have six days of exercise to get through. Hopefully, we can manage to get him (Mahler) there. We still have a chance."

Mahler may be the most lightly raced horse to run in a Melbourne Cup, having started only six times. But Murphy said that would be no disadvantage.

"He's only a young horse, but he's got a handy weight," Murphy said. "He's got some speed and he sticks on, so he can run a race for sure."

Murphy said Mahler had made great improvement in the week he has been in Australia.

"He looks a lot healthier now. He was a bit hairy when we arrived," he said.
 
I'm glad it's not borderline, they might have risked him a la Horatio Nelson, and the MC can result in a lot of injuries. It would be great after this weekend if Mahler could pull it off - I'd be really thrilled for AOB after this dreadful few days
 
Only good thing about Scorpion being out is my best friend's horse is now definitely guaranteed of a run.

The name for all concerned: DOURO VALLEY.

He was 2nd in the Caulfield Cup 2 weeks ago, and although I am not convinced he will stay 3200m, you have to be in it to win it. Plus he is running this weekend in a final lead up to Tuesday, the MacKinnon Stakes. Back him for value folks.
 
Grand Armee said:
Only good thing about Scorpion being out is my best friend's horse is now definitely guaranteed of a run.

The name for all concerned: DOURO VALLEY.

He was 2nd in the Caulfield Cup 2 weeks ago, and although I am not convinced he will stay 3200m, you have to be in it to win it. Plus he is running this weekend in a final lead up to Tuesday, the MacKinnon Stakes. Back him for value folks.



Hi ,I have Douro Valley on my list of possibles, I didn't realise that there was a doubt about him staying. I had better back him before the Mackinnon, Do some of those horses have to run well or win to get into the Melbourne Cup?

Any view on Maybe Better, Gallic , Blue Monday, The fuzz? sorry to bombard you with questions :shy:
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Douro Valley's sire, Encosta De Lago is a wonderful stallion, one of the best in the world, but he doesn't get too many who stay beyond 12f, and there's little in the bottom half of DV's pedigree to suggest he'll get the 2 miles.
 
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4258162a17395.html

Personal touch gets Mahler back on track

The Melbourne Cup preparation of the heavily-backed Irish hope Mahler is back on track after some personal grooming and in-depth analysis.

As well as being pleased with his horse's overnight improvement, trainer Aidan O'Brien had his Cup hopes boosted when he inspected the Flemington track yesterday, declaring it one of the best in the world.

Sporting a new, summer coat Mahler did his usual pair of canters at Sandown today with O'Brien again beside him every step of the way.

O'Brien had been concerned with the horse after seeing him exercise for the first time in two weeks yesterday.

Mahler sweated heavily after only light work and was far from relaxed during his training.

The trainer duly ordered the winter coat that the horse had begun to grow before leaving Ireland to be clipped and for a few subtle changes to be made to his routine.

"I'm much happier today, he relaxed well, he wasn't tense like yesterday," O'Brien said.

So pleased was O'Brien with the improvement in Mahler's attitude that he will put his Cup rider Stephen Baster on him for his final piece of fast work tomorrow.

The trainer had been wary about allowing Baster to familiarise himself with the horse, fearing it may cause Mahler more anxiety.

But after calling Baster to Sandown this morning to watch Mahler exercise, he was as happy with the rider as he was with his horse.

Baster accompanied O'Brien as he tailed Mahler stride-for-stride in a car around the Sandown track.

"It was very important to have him here this morning," O'Brien said.

"He could see what we were doing and how we were thinking.

"I'd say he's a very bright fellow, a very sharp fellow."

O'Brien was almost ecstatic about Flemington after seeing it for the first time yesterday.

"It's some track," he said.

"I was really impressed, I couldn't believe it.

"I didn't know what to expect, there's not many tracks better than that in the world."

English trainer Luca Cumani, a Melbourne Cup veteran, gave second favourite Purple Moon another quiet morning at Sandown.

Cumani said he would decide day-by-day what work to give Purple Moon, but he doubted he would have another gallop before Tuesday.

The third member of the international team, Tungsten Strike, had two canters this morning and is likely to gallop tomorrow in his final piece of serious work.
 
Purple Moon in stall 15
for Tuesday's big race

by PA Sport Staff

PURPLE MOON will start from stall 15 as he chasesa landmark success in Tuesday's Emirates Melbourne Cup at Flemington.

Although Irish trainer Dermot Weld has won the Australian feature twice, a British-based handler has yet to taste glory in 'the race that stops a nation'.

Purple Moon, winner of the Ebor, will bid to buck that trend when he represents trainer Luca Cumani in the two-mile event.

The four-year-old is the 4-1 joint-favourite for the race with Stan James along with local runner Master O'Reilly, who has been drawn in 17.

Aidan O'Brien's Mahler will start from stall six while the Amanda Perrett-trained Tungsten Strike should be able to take up his usual prominent role after drawing stall two.

The well-fancied Zipping will have to overcome an unfavourable position in 22 while impressive Mackinnon Stakes winner Sirmione also drew poorly in 21.

Sirmione will be bidding to give trainer Bart Cummings a 12th win in the Cup and emulate the handler's Rogan Josh who completed the Mackinnon-Cup double in 1999.

Tuesday's contest will see an extra slice of history being made as two female jockeys take part for the first time.

Top New Zealand rider Lisa Cropp will partner SAAB Quality winner Sculptor, while South Australia's leading lady rider Clare Lindop will ride Dolphin Jo
 
Well Aidan O'Brien has come out and said he is scared of Bart Cummings, and what he saw on Saturday with Sirmione was freakish.

It was, the horse looked like a no chance type, at 80/1, comes out and blows them away with fast sectionals and an amazing win in the Group 1 WFA, LKS Mackinnon Stakes. His only problem is the barrier, but being in the hands of one of the best trainers the world has ever seen, and whom is attempting to win his 12th Melbourne Cup, its looking like a matter of him just going around.

I am going to be backing Princess Coup, Tungsten Strike, Blue Monday, Mahler and Sculptor. The latter also won well on Saturday, and is placed up to 3200m.

Also having a bit on my friend's horse, Douro Valley.
 
Grand Armee said:
Well Aidan O'Brien has come out and said he is scared of Bart Cummings, and what he saw on Saturday with Sirmione was freakish.

It was, the horse looked like a no chance type, at 80/1, comes out and blows them away with fast sectionals and an amazing win in the Group 1 WFA, LKS Mackinnon Stakes. His only problem is the barrier, but being in the hands of one of the best trainers the world has ever seen, and whom is attempting to win his 12th Melbourne Cup, its looking like a matter of him just going around.

I am going to be backing Princess Coup, Tungsten Strike, Blue Monday, Mahler and Sculptor. The latter also won well on Saturday, and is placed up to 3200m.

Also having a bit on my friend's horse, Douro Valley.



Good Luck, I really hope you are on a winning streak, you have my 3 picks in there.
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