Melbourne Cup 2007

Whispers are this morning that its not all good news in the David Hayes camp. From rumours (and they are from strong sources) I have heard, the mare has snapped a tendon and will be immediately retired.

Whether this is true or not...........................god only help us.
 
The people I am friends with whom own Douro Valley, are now searching for a jockey that can make the weight of 50.5kg. Darren Beadman is off to Hong Kong for 3 months, so won't be back, plus he cannot ride that low.

Craig Newitt, whom is one of the best light weight jockeys in Australasia, will not ride him either because he will be committed to the Mike Moroney horse, Eskimo Queen.
 
Hi all (first post),

I'd really like to discuss Mahler with people who know him.

Firstly, he's a certainty to gain a start. There's already at least ten above him who are confirmed non-starters.

I'm no expert on UK form but I've already backed him for a stack because I think he's the best weighted UK horse I've ever seen.

The weights were issued before the St Leger and he's been given 50kg (7-12). On his St Leger run I'm sure the handicapper would be giving him probably 2.5kg (6 Lb) more if he could have another crack at him. He's showing big improvement each run too isn't he - another good sign.

How do you think he compares to Scorpion here. Scorpion has to give him 8.5kg (19 Lb). That's 9 Lb more than he would meet him at WFA. Scorpion is the shorter priced of the two, but can he really beat Mahler over two miles under those conditions? Gee, 7-12 for a lightly raced improving horse that ran an unlucky second in a Group 1 St Leger - it's a dream come true isn't it?

I'm also interested in his pattern of racing. Does he need to lead? That's a tough ask in a Melbourne Cup. However, Delta Blues proved last year you don't need a turn of foot to win the Cup. He raced in third on an OK pace, but the key was he started applying the pressure before the 800m mark. I get the impression Mahler could do the same. Race handy then quicken well out and just grind them into the dust. With a feather weight I doubt any Australian horse could run him down. Holding him up and sprinting would just play into the Australian horses hands I think.

Do you think he can do this?

I was interested to read that there's an opinion that Scorpion might struggle with the atmosphere. It's something that shouldn't be under estimated. They saddle the runners up very early and they're parading in front of a very noisy crowd of over 100,000 people for a very long time.

Ok, lastly, Tungsten Strike is already here. He also looks well placed on his last win, but his form looks very inconsistent. Is there any key to him or is he simply an in and out customer with ability on his day?
 
Some good points Wenona. One thing I'm wondering though, is whether Mahler might be out there - at least in part - to try and set a decent pace for Scorpion.
 
Food for thought, Wenona, and there's at least one other person on this thread who already agrees with you.

By the way, he is trained in Ireland, not the UK.

Where are you based yourself? I might be looking for advice on the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate.
 
My apologies for referring to him as a UK horse.

Do you think it's a given that he'll lead? Traditionally it's nearly impossible to lead all the way in the Cup however given the lack of quality and depth here at the moment and the effects of the EI crisis, I have a suspicion he could be an exception.

Surely the stable is bright enough to realise he's beaten the handicapper here. Would they really sacrifice a genuine chance to help the other runner? Do they have a history of that sort of thing? Remember horses being used as pacemakers is illegal here.

Grey, I'm in Brisbane. The form around many of the Cox Plate fancies is pretty up and down at the moment. It will be interesting to see how Purple Moon goes in the Caulfield Cup. He's a 20/1 shot here at the moment. I would say the strength of the mile and a half brigade is a lot stronger here than the true two milers at the moment.
 
Another thought - the early pace is usually pretty genuine in the Cup and a genuine Australian pace is pretty quick compared to the UK. There's a long run to the first turn but it's the tightest turn on any major Australian racecourse. So what happens is you've got 24 horses trying to get in and get a position - there's always a few that will push forward rather than get trapped wide. What usually happens is once they've got around that turn the speed will slacken. If they're looking for Mahler to ensure a good pace this is where he'll need to take over.

Personally, I'd prefer him to try and sit close on the pace until around the 5f mark, then wind him out. Delta Blues did that last year to great effect and with 7-12 if he was right, I think he'd be near impossible to catch.
 
If the stewards thought a horse was simply used as a pacemaker, they could find the jockey didn't let the horse run on its merits. If the trainer was implicated in the plan, they'd both get a long holiday.

There's also rules about notifying changes in riding tactics. If the horses performance wasn't in keeping with the way it has been usually ridden there'd be an inquiry as well.
 
What's the record of younger horses in the race? Mahler is still a 3yo while previous challengers from Europe have generally been older.

I'd imagine they will try and get him up near the front, ready to go on going into the final turn.

I haven't heard of his jockey before. Is he a good judge of pace?
 
Thanks Wenona. Over here there's a huge grey area surrounding how pacemakers can be allowed whilst jockeys must simultaneously ride horses on their merits.
 
There really should be no grey area where a potential pacemaker is taking a genuine contender's place in the field. I can't believe there is any need for a pacemaker in the Melbourne Cup anyway.
 
That was my point Melendez. You just don't get 24 horses hacking up the straight to that first turn. I'd imagine the early pace would be at least as quick as anything Scorpion has had in the past. That's why it's near impossible to lead all the way, you'd have to go too quickly early.

They water the track these days. On a Dead track I'd imagine they'll run something around 3.21.0 for the 3200m.

Grey, I don't recall a Northern Hemisphere 3YO running. Local 3yo's rarely run these days but remember they have only turned 3yo on August 1st, so they're just 3 months into they're 3yo season when the cup is run. Mahler will be seven months older than the local 3yo's won't he? Just 2 months off turning 4?
 
Grey his jockey is a well established senior Melbourne jockey. I think his local knowledge and experience will be an advantage.
 
Originally posted by Colin Phillips@Oct 9 2007, 11:33 AM
On the basis that pacemakers are illegal in Australia, Gareth, do you think that you should delete your post? :P :D
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No, but I might forward Wenona's post to Ballydoyle just in case :D
 
Mahler will come into the race classified as a "4yo" because of the age difference. It was the same when Choisir raced in the UK, he was actually a 3yo, but classified as a 4yo getting the weight of an older horse.

With 50 kilograms on his back, and if he does come (fingers crossed, it could be Ballydoyle's year this year), he will give the race an almighty shake. Plus I believe they are using local knowledge and have booked Stephen Baster for the event.

Pacemakers are illegal here, the classified term by Racing Australia is "team racing." Which it is, a horse should be able to win a race on its own genuine merrits, and not with the help of an inferior stablemate.
 
Watch for Douro Valley in the Caulfield Cup in 2 weeks time. He ran 4th last Saturday over 2000m at Group 1 level. He beat some handy ones in El Segundo, Blue Monday and Marasco.

The horse I like for the Cup is Scenic Blast.
 
Mahler has made the running in the past and can win from the front so I don't think they could argue sucessfully that he was employed as pacemaker.

Last run he almost made all to come second in the G1 St Leger. I hope he runs and tries to make all. Often the Melbourne Cup has a fast start and then the pace slows down and picks up again for the finish.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Oct 11 2007, 12:03 PM
Mahler has a super chance to win this if he runs his race.
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On paper he has fantastic form, 2nd in the St Leger by a length over 15f, and winning that Group 3 over 16f.

I actually do like him, but want to see what unfolds in the coming weeks. This weekend is the Group 2 Winning Edge Stakes over 12f, the following weekend is the Caulfield Cup, followed by the Cox Plate/Moonee Valley Cup, and the Derby weekend.

Unfortunately I am not going to be in Australia for the next 2 weeks, as I am in Hong Kong. However do get to see Vengeance of Rain most likely resume not this weekend, but the following weekend. :clap:
 
Just last week it was easy to get matched at $30 on Betfair for Mahler, now he's into around $18.50.

I think the more the UK form is analysed the shorter he'll get. I'm pretty confidant he'll be a shorter price than Scorpion on the day.

Perhaps Scorpion will make the pace for Mahler? :)
 
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