New Members- Welcome To Talking Horses

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NTF has been posting over at another forum for some time. Welcome to TH Ben - we're naturally rather cynical of new members over here due to past experience (particularly with the link in the sig).

Martin
 
initiation, at least they didn't send you for a 'long stand' a 'bucket of steam' or a kiwi shaver.
 
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Hi again everyone

SL - No problem, I'm fully aware Dosage is not for everyone,

Krizon - I'm not originally from Kirkcaldy so please do not hold that against me! We are only here as my wife works here.

IS - Hi Martin - I understand the cynicism (especially due to the sig) but believe me I would be here regardless of having a book to promote or not. I was directed here by 'viewfromthecouch' (Colin) who is a member on here.

I promise I won’t just be posting about Dosage on here (much)!! In fact I talk about it enough on my own blog so I will be rambling about plenty other racing points over here.

Ben
 
krizon said:
Welcome, NTF - even if you do live in Kirkcaldy! Don't worry about Shadow Leader - she is the Rottweiler of the forum at times, while the most the rest of us get to be are snappish Jack Russells! But she's highly knowledgeable, one of the fully hands-on horseys on here, so to be trusted with the facts, when she's not kickboxing one of us into bloodied submission.
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Do me next, Kri... :p
 
Why, what could I possibly say about a charming, erudite, insightful and innately fair-minded person like you, tracks? :whistle:







Whoaahhh... this is weird. My nose just got several inches longer...
 
Narrowing the Field said:
Hi everyone

I hope to be a regular poster on here.

Look forward to 'meeting' you all.

Regards

Ben Aitken
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Hi Ben,

Who is your publisher?

I’d be fascinated to learn of your approach/methodology.

In essence Dosage is simply a stamina index, so there is nothing for people to get upset about.

I’ve been asked many times to apply Dosage to the NH, but had to explain that’s not what it is set up to do. The stallion roster does not supply meaningful data for NH horses and it was never intended that it should.

If you intend setting up a stamina index for NH horses it should not be associated with Dosage, which is applied to Flat races through qualifying chefs-de-race.
 
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Hi Steve

Thanks for the interest.

I'm extremely busy today so cant give an in-depth reply to your query at the moment.

Apologies for that but I promise you a reply soon.

My publisher is High Stakes publishing.

Speak soon

Ben
 
Narrowing the Field said:
Hi Steve

Thanks for the interest.

I'm extremely busy today so cant give an in-depth reply to your query at the moment.

Apologies for that but I promise you a reply soon.

My publisher is High Stakes publishing.

Speak soon

Ben
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That’s okay Ben. It’s not an enquiry as such simply a friendly pointer as to what’s what. I recall you contacted Steve Roman who passed the enquiry on to me in October 2006 and April 2007… neither of us have heard from you since then and the publication of your book has caught us by surprise.

I’ll reserve judgement until I have read your book. Of course I would hope that you have not simply applied Dosage criteria to the National Hunt but come up with some viable basis of analysis to overlay the Dosage system. The five categories of the Dosage system, ranging from Brilliant to Professional, correspond (as I am sure you are aware) to a range of distance potential for Flat race performers.

If you (or your publisher) forward me a copy I’ll review it for the paper. In the meantime the best of luck with it.
 
Assuming you believe that dosage is valuable in ascertaining how good a horse will be at staying, I don't see a problem with applying it to National Hunt races*. Stamina is an attribute, and although the categories correspond to distances on the flat, the CD and DI give an indication of how good a stayer a horse is, so it should be applicable to National Hunt.

However, I would strongly doubt whether there is a high enough reading in many NH bred horses.

*Assuming you believe that dosage is valuable in ascertaining how good a horse will be at staying
 
Bar the Bull said:
Assuming you believe that dosage is valuable in ascertaining how good a horse will be at staying, I don't see a problem with applying it to National Hunt races*. Stamina is an attribute, and although the categories correspond to distances on the flat, the CD and DI give an indication of how good a stayer a horse is, so it should be applicable to National Hunt.

However, I would strongly doubt whether there is a high enough reading in many NH bred horses.

*Assuming you believe that dosage is valuable in ascertaining how good a horse will be at staying
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There are a number of problems. Not least that the system is not calibrated for NH performers and that the chef-de-race data would not supply enough figures for the points to be meaningful (with attendant large gaps)... it's not simply the case that those individuals with the most stamina make the best NH horses.

To apply the Dosage scale to National Hunt performers is akin to a financial analyst using an inappropriate set of valuation tools in valuing a company. The system simply was not designed to analyse NH horses.
 
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But there are lots of mathematical problems that work in different environments for which they were designed.

Linear regression was initially used to measure the distance of astronomical bodies from the earth; it is now used in econometrics.

I am not sure what Gaussian copulas were used for initially, but they certainly weren't used for that I need them for (pricing collateralised debt obligations) or indeed for assessing the strength and reliability of bridges.
 
Hi Steve/BTB

Looks like you guys have been partaking in some friendly sparring without me!

I have to say Steve, what BTB has been suggesting is very much the view I have taken in applying Dosage to National Hunt.

Just because a method of study has been formulated for one discipline does not mean it should be discounted for other disciplines.

An equine example would be the great Red Rum. Rummie was bred to be a miler on the flat but turned out to be a below average flat performer. Instead of giving up on the horses connections thought outside the box (and his breeding) and he turned out to be (arguably) the greatest National Horse of all time.

Whether or not Dosage was designed to work solely on the flat is of no concern to me - the facts are that it does work over the jumps and my publication supplies the stats to back up this theory.

I fully understand it was never intended to analyse National Hunt races and indeed this is what led to me apply the Dosage theory to the races I have. To succeed at this game you need to be open to alternative angles of study and willing to think outside the box.

Prior to the publication of the book I did actually try and contact Steve Roman on a couple of email addresses but had no response.

Many thanks for offering to review 'Narrowing the Field', I would be more than happy to have my publishers send you a copy. If you want to send me a PM with your contact details that would be great.

Regards

Ben
 
Narrowing the Field said:
Hi Steve/BTB

Looks like you guys have been partaking in some friendly sparring without me!

I have to say Steve, what BTB has been suggesting is very much the view I have taken in applying Dosage to National Hunt.

Just because a method of study has been formulated for one discipline does not mean it should be discounted for other disciplines.

An equine example would be the great Red Rum. Rummie was bred to be a miler on the flat but turned out to be a below average flat performer. Instead of giving up on the horses connections thought outside the box (and his breeding) and he turned out to be (arguably) the greatest National Horse of all time.

Whether or not Dosage was designed to work solely on the flat is of no concern to me - the facts are that it does work over the jumps and my publication supplies the stats to back up this theory.

I fully understand it was never intended to analyse National Hunt races and indeed this is what led to me apply the Dosage theory to the races I have. To succeed at this game you need to be open to alternative angles of study and willing to think outside the box.

Prior to the publication of the book I did actually try and contact Steve Roman on a couple of email addresses but had no response.

Many thanks for offering to review 'Narrowing the Field', I would be more than happy to have my publishers send you a copy. If you want to send me a PM with your contact details that would be great.

Regards

Ben
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Thanks Ben. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with any of that. Like I say I'll let you know what I think when I've read it. I'll PM you.

BTB is very amusing. :)
 
Hello to all. Still finding my feet around the racing front. Like all forms. Yes...even AW. I know that goes down like a lead balloon. First love is NH however. I am a genuine fan of Turtle Island who, in my opinion, is underrated as a stallion hence the name.
 
Incidentally Sheikh, I have a print of that particular Whittaker picture of Danehill on my wall. Hope it doesn't put you off. Personally, I'm very fond of the picture as it was a present. I really like the story that Mr W tells as to how he managed to take that picture. Nice choice.
 
Turtle's fan said:
Incidentally Sheikh, I have a print of that particular Whittaker picture of Danehill on my wall. Hope it doesn't put you off. Personally, I'm very fond of the picture as it was a present. I really like the story that Mr W tells as to how he managed to take that picture. Nice choice.
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I have one on my own wall I hope you don't mind ;) It's a peach.
 
News from RP on TURTLE ISLAND !

TURTLE ISLAND, sire of Sunday's Irish Arkle Chase winner An Cathaoir Mor, will stand this season at Allevamento Torre di Canicarao in Sicily.
The Irish 2,000 Guineas-winning son of Fairy King has stood in recent seasons at Coolmore's Beeches Stud in County Waterford.
He has carved out a good reputation as a dual-purpose sire, having supplied 2,000 Guineas winner Island Sands in his first crop and going on to provide high-class jumps performers including Scolardy, Liskennet and Bensalem.
His latest star in the jumps sphere is An Cathaoir Mor, whorocketed up ante-post betting lists for the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival after shooting down better fancied rivals Sports Line and Take The Breeze to win the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown.
Turtle Island will command a fee of €5,000 this year and will stand alongside Imperial Ballet.
 
Aren't they always kidnapping horses in Italy and holding them to ransom? And Sicily. Dearie me. Hope he can swim. Mind you: as a lover of all things Italian I have a better chance of seeing him there then I did in Co Waterford.
Thanks for the info Songsheet. Back to fretting about another horse's fate ;)
 
Hi - I'm the proud owner of the retired Royal Predica - he's a proper gent most of the time! - love me racing, betting etc and we're parading at Cheltenham - hope I'm not too much of a pain after the yard arm beckons! X
 
Welcome, RoyalP. Pleased to hear you have the old boy - he was a popular horse and has a few fans on here who will be glad to know hes doing well.
 
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