Newbury Hurdle entries.

Ian_Davies said:
overrated Berkshire gaff
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If you've never been to Newbury, honestly, don't bother, you're missing nothing.

I always thought it looked like racing nirvana when watching the Hennessy and the Lockinge on the telly as a kid, but the reality is it's stuck on the back of an industrial estate and nowadays has gentrified appartments and a housing development lining it.
 
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I've already have a little on Favour + Fortune at 25s.
However, I've been drawn to Spirits Bay at 33s. Obviously an impossible task lto, but he did split 2 horses rated 144 + 148. Possibilities here off 125.
Stable have won the race 3 times since 2014.
 
Ian_Davies said:
If you've never been to Newbury, honestly, don't bother, you're missing nothing.

I always thought it looked like racing nirvana when watching the Hennessy and the Lockinge on the telly as a kid, but the reality is it's stuck on the back of an industrial estate and nowadays has gentrified appartments and a housing development lining it.
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My local course. Can’t but agree - used to be lovely, now half the course is ringed by blocks of flats and the centre of the course is one bloody great car park.
 
Robicheaux said:
I've already have a little on Favour + Fortune at 25s.
However, I've been drawn to Spirits Bay at 33s. Obviously an impossible task lto, but he did split 2 horses rated 144 + 148. Possibilities here off 125.
Stable have won the race 3 times since 2014.
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Especially if he puts a claimer on.
 
A couple of observations...

None of the Irish entries have been confirmed. Should we read anything into that? Have they heard that JP expects to win with one of his UK trained runners?

Is this race declining in quality?

This year the top weight is rated only 144 (last year it was lower at 140) but in 2023 it was 148) but back in the day Rooster Booster was short-headed (I never will forgive Johnson for for giving it a harder race than necessary) off 166, no less. Bear in mind that winners tend to go up 5-7lbs and it puts RB in the 170+ category. In other words, on official ratings it was deemed better then than State Man currently is.

Can anyone imagine State Man turning up at Newbury off his current mark?

It seems gone may be the days when horses had to win a fair race to get up the handicap enough to make the cut off a mark in the 130s. It effectively means trainers can plot/school in public/run them unfit etc and get in off a Class 4 mark.

I'm surprised trainers don't leave good horses in the race to put these bandits out of the handicap, Burdett Road, for example. But then I checked the Champion Hurdle and take out the solid contenders for that and we're left with... Burdett Road. on 150. That's a pretty damning indictment of the level of hurdler we're dealing with these days.
 
The world....changes.

In 2025 a horse like Sea Pigeon wouldn't have gone hurdling - he'd have been sold to race in Hong Kong.

And there are an absurd number of Pattern jumps contests now - gone are the days of top class horses contesting valuable handicaps.

But we are where we are, it is what it is, and it's what we make of it that counts.

In the same way I look for a different kind of horse for the Grand National than I would have done 40 years ago, I look for a different kind of horse in races like this nowadays too.

Btw, you just ignored the OP's plea not to run the race down. 😂
 
Just my two cents worth.

If a young hurdler in the U. K is thought to be a 150+ horse in waiting, most trainers would seem to go for a grade two novice hurdle with about three runners, win that on the bridle, blow it's mark, and see the horse predictably fluff it's lines in grade one company subsequently.

Either that or do something along similar lines with an older horse, E.G Kihavah earlier in the year, when his trainer ran him in the Fighting Fifth off a mark in the high 130's, rather than target a handicap hurdle.

Happens a lot on the flat too. Where it's listed and group races that are more fashionable to run well in than showcase handicaps for obvious reasons, stud value, etc.

There's always one or two who evade the net. From memory Mullins and Elliot have progressed the odd good handicap hurdler into a proper graded horse. Just look at State Man winning the County Hurdle three years ago.

I'd bet hypothetical money if an English trainer had the same horse with the same form going in to that festival he/she would have run the horse in the Supreme Novice Hurdle.
 
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I've had a look at the race and I think mirabad 20/1 looks to have a big chance.
Dr Newland knows the time of day and hasn't run it since its win.
I'm going to wait and see if it drifts.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
The world....changes.

In 2025 a horse like Sea Pigeon wouldn't have gone hurdling - he'd have been sold to race in Hong Kong.

And there are an absurd number of Pattern jumps contests now - gone are the days of top class horses contesting valuable handicaps.

But we are where we are, it is what it is, and it's what we make of it that counts.
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That's why I often question the premise that the modern day horses must be better than the old ones [due to breeding and training methods]. It isn't necessarily the case and back in the day your Night Nurses, Lanzarotes, See You Thens etc were all rated in the mid-high 170s. Today we rave about Constitution Hill because of what he does to the opposition but he's still only rated about 175 and the reigning champion is only 168 and the top handful are a stone better than everything else.

I think I've just sent myself into a spiral of depression...
 
Marb said:
There's always one or two who evade the net. From memory Mullins and Elliot have progressed the odd good handicap hurdler into a proper graded horse. Just look at State Man winning the County Hurdle three years ago.

I'd bet hypothetical money if an English trainer had the same horse with the same form going in to that festival he/she would have run the horse in the Supreme Novice Hurdle.
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Yes, and before that the word came out just before the County that earlier in the season Saint Roi was their Supreme horse before he met a minor setback. Then he turns up in the County off 137, hacks up and goes up to 151 for it and eventually 156. Irish runners filled the first four places and were nearly four lengths clear of a Hendo job.
 
I am still amazed that they allowed my Secret Weapon to win and pick up a 5 lb penalty. Guess it was a case of a bird in the hand. Nico Switches to his stables Joyeuse without a moments hesitation...looks like another Schweppes Gold Trophy is heading to Seven Barrows.....with a touch of Rosyth about Joyeuse's form
 
I didn’t check the Warwick entries yesterday but have now noticed King William Rufus is in the 1.30 with Freddie Gordon jocked up
 
Cashed out for my full stake back just in case.

Charlie Maggs (5) is on the RP card for Newbury and I see Freddie's minimum weight is 10-3 so he'd maybe make it with nothing to spare.

Maggs hasn't ridden for the stable this season but Chris Gordon is not beyond putting up misleading riding arrangements ahead of a race. He really targets this race so I wouldn't put anything past him. His boy has a far better strike rate for him this season than Rex Dingle who has had the most rides.
 
It's a cracking card on Saturday at Newbury and I can't wait, especially for this contest.

There's about as much chance of me attending as there is of me ever going to a Cheltenham Preview Night (ie NONE), but I'll enjoy watching it at home and if Navajo Indy wins I'll try not to let his OR compared with past winners spoil it for me.
 
I think I might have said at the time, I backed Navajo Indy last time and felt it wasn't really there to win that race so it's fair to assume the words 'off for its life' will cross my lips at some point on Saturday.
 
I couldn't recall the Gordon horse (something like Remiluc) that placed at big prices in the race so did a bit of googling.

This is a quote from him after Aucunrisque won a couple of years back:

“This race meant a lot to me growing up. It was the old Schweppes Hurdle. I just always remember that Ryan Price thing (trained four of the first five winners). I always thought ‘those clever trainers’ – and I must hasten to add I’ve proved the whole philosophy wrong – those shrewd trainers won it and now I have. I thought my other horse would win, so I’ve proved that completely wrong.

“I went to Josh Gifford’s when I was 14 years old on work experience from my school. Because I was such a delinquent at school, they used to send me off on special escapades. So they sent me to Josh’s. That Ryan Price/Josh Gifford (was the jockey on all of Price’s winners) thing means it is a very important race to me,

“This ranks right up there on memorable days, especially with my son winning the earlier race. It is a special day, a really special day.”

He added: “We were going to go for the Lightning Chase at Doncaster, but I thought if I get lucky and go and win it, he might go up a couple of pounds. So I thought let’s have a go at a proper race and it has worked out.”

He quipped: “I told Nick to tuck in and let them make it, and burst through at the second-last. Maybe if he’d have done that, he might have won by 10 lengths!”

Tells you all you need to know about why he targets it.
 
Hansard ( 10/1 ) - Gary Moore. Won the 2023 Gerry Feilden by 3/4l off 138 and running off 141 here. Owned by the Noel Fehily Racing Syndicates whose website provided this quote.
" Hansard made his comeback at Kempton on December 27th under Niall Houlihan. He had no easy task off top weight against race fit rivals but did us all proud by finishing 4th. Niall said he jumped superbly, travelled well but just got tired jumping two out. We were delighted with his effort. However his next run at Windsor can be consigned to the dustbin, we've learned this new track doesn't suit ' hold up ' horses and that was certainly the case as he found more traffic than in Piccadilly Circus. We'll move on to the Newbury Hurdle on 8th February with optimism."
Trainer Gary Moore said on one stable tour that the Betfair Hurdle [ race's old name ]would be on the radar - sportinglife.com on 13/11/24 - and in another that " he is just a very badly handicapped horse " - attheraces.com.

One plus is that the trainer has won the race previously - three times, I think. And the home straight at Newbury should be wide enough.
 
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