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NH 2010-2011: Weather Watch

Claisse would say he was 'very optimistic' of racing if the track were under ten foot of water an hour before the first.

Not wishing to get involved in the argument - and I'm not fundamentally against trials for it - but the main argument for not hurdling on polytrack amongst trainers and jockeys is generally that they just go far too fast in their races which leads to more, and nastier, falls.
 
I did get the chance at lunch today - hey, anyone visiting Brighton, I do most sincerely recommend the lovely marquee restaurant overlooking the ice rink bang outside the Royal Pavilion (£9.50 inc skate rental for an hour) - to ask Ed Arkell (CotC Brighton and Fontwell Park) what he thought about hurdling on Polytrack. He's still convinced that horses can slide on even the dryest grass if they fall, and can't on Poly.

Anyway, thanks for the thoughts, Rory - even if I disagree with you on most of it, at least it is an idea aired, and Shadz. There is enough of fired-up novices on the grass, so ferk knows how bad it'd be if they went even more harum-scarum on the alternative.
 
On the other hand, I'm still an advocate of AW cards for jumpers when the proper racing isn't on - I wrote a letter to the RP months before Southwell staged their AW bumper card which was hailed as such a good idea; my letter wasn't even bloody printed! I'm also with my good friend Geoffrey Deacon who wrote a letter to the RP last winter (and got it published!!!!) who suggested they stage point to point races on the AW......even if the suggestion was slightly tongue in cheek (or more like wishful thinking)
 
Well, you've gone a step further than I was thinking - I'd have kicked off with stuffed hurdles first (I do like those so much more than the flip-top variety, especially when that damn foam gets caught between their legs), seen how they went. I can't see it being any worse per se for chasers/ptp's, and I think the concussion would be considerably less likely to cause fractures than the firm summer jumping ground. You just deep-harrow it, and it's really very nice.

If you want to get up an 'AW jumps now!' campaign, let me know - I'd like to see it at least trialled. As for the sliding bit - if you rotate, you ain't gonna slide. Chances are you're nailed for a broken neck or back, even if you fall into marshmallows. There are so many ways to incur a fatality which doesn't involve sliding, that I don't see it as a valid reason to NOT trial AW.

But racing's still full of reactionaries, even young ones, even in the face of using the surface for so many other equine activities - at speed, over obstacles, blah, blah. By the way - did they use AW in Australia for their jumps racing? I know they incurred fatalities, but when you see the crap they were jumping over, and it was all speed, speed, speed, I'm not bloody surprised. That pic which someone put up (last year?) of a horse flying through what looked like a large nylon mop was appalling. No respect for such flimsy contrivances, and therefore no safety for the horse. Born out of 'welfare concerns', it had the exact opposite effect.
 
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Update...

Though prospects for racing in the immediate future are improving - Cork and Plumpton racing today and Catterick optimistic for tomorrow, it seems any thaw has come too late for Punchestown which has once again abandoned the John Durkan card.

They must be out of time for this one unless they can transfer the race to Fairyhouse on Wednesday which at least sounds more confident.

Very bad weather seems set to come in from Thursday for a few days - Ascot and Uttoxeter are sounding optimistic at present and are doing the fleece routine though how effective these are with a few inches of snow on them is of course questionnable. Newcastle is waterlogged after a rapid thaw and it doesn't sound as though snow OR rain will be of any help.

Navan are due to have two days of racing at the weekend - perhaps the John Durkan Chase could move there as a second thought ?
 
Punchestown gone and I believe Fairyhouse has little enough chance too. Hope I'm wrong as we would have a runner but not looking positive. It's the freeze that happened before the snow that is causing the problem. Simply hasn't had a chance to get out of the ground and now that the snow has melted it's freezing too.
 
4 Grade 1s now scheduled for Wednesday

Following the cancellation of the Punchestown Meeting scheduled for tomorrow and the Hilly Way Steeplechase due to be run today at Cork, Horse Racing Ireland has announced that both The John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Steeplechase and The O’Connell Group Hilly Way Steeplechase will now be held at Fairyhouse on Wednesday 15th December.


The distance of the O’Connell Group Hilly Way Steeplechase will be now be two miles and one furlong.

This means that The John Fowler Memorial European Breeders Fund Mares Steeplechase and The Bar One Racing Porterstown Handicap Steeplechase have both been deleted from the original Fairyhouse programme.
Declarations for the Fairyhouse Meeting on Wednesday must be made by 10am tomorrow Tuesday 14th December.
 
Peter Roe, acting manager at Fairyhouse, said on Monday: "The course was raceable this morning when clerk of the course Joe Collins inspected it and we'll give an updated forecast after lunch."
 
stodge said:
Though prospects for racing in the immediate future are improving - Cork and Plumpton racing today and Catterick optimistic for tomorrow, it seems any thaw has come too late for Punchestown which has once again abandoned the John Durkan card.

They must be out of time for this one unless they can transfer the race to Fairyhouse on Wednesday which at least sounds more confident.

Very bad weather seems set to come in from Thursday for a few days - Ascot and Uttoxeter are sounding optimistic at present and are doing the fleece routine though how effective these are with a few inches of snow on them is of course questionnable. Newcastle is waterlogged after a rapid thaw and it doesn't sound as though snow OR rain will be of any help.

Navan are due to have two days of racing at the weekend - perhaps the John Durkan Chase could move there as a second thought ?
Click to expand...

Towcester's chances?
 
The Hilly Way is a grade 2 chase - Or at least it was last year. It's role of honour wouldn't make me think it was due an upgrade.
 
Aragorn said:
I play golf right near Towcester and the course was open for the first time in 2 weeks over the weekend if that helps..
Click to expand...

Thank you. Weather forecast for Wednesday night/Thursday doesn't look great and their definition of 'soft' leaves a lot to be desired at the best of times.
 
A bit of hope for Irish Christmas racing?

On Tuesday, a band of snow will give more prolonged and heavy snowfall, with eastern and southeastern areas most at risk. It will probably stay cold on Friday, Christmas Eve, but milder weather with rain and wind is approaching from the southwest, however it is not certain yet whether this milder weather will spread countrywide on Christmas day or that it will stay cold for the day.
Click to expand...
 
Weather Forecasts...

The UK Met Office is also suggesting the transition to milder weather will begin over the Christmas weekend - will it be enough and in time for next Sunday ?

My early thought is that places like Limerick and Wincanton have the best prospects next Sunday.

However, the nature and timing of the transition is still not clear - it WAS going to be as early as Wednesday/Thursday this week a few days ago but has been gradually shunted back with time and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if that happened again.

It will also take time for snow to melt and frost to clear from uncovered tracks so even a change to warmer air will need a day or two to have an impact at the very least.

Oddly enough, I think the Welsh National meeting is in a better position as is the Cheltenham New Year meeting.
 

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