NH 2010-2011: Weather Watch

You just didn't believe me, did you, SteveMmmm? Now that the Press Ass announces the covers will be hell to move with the snow on them, it's probably correct. I put it up and I get you saying they'll have the 'manforce' (is that like a workforce, only more butch?) in place to whup 'em off. That's the last time I tell you anything, do you hear?
 
Cover problems...

Indeed, frost covers are far from being the panacea. Ascot had huge problems on Friday after it put the covers down. The idea was sound but the rain which fell on Thursday froze leaving the covers covered (so to speak) in ice and welded to the grass as Mick Fitz demonstrated on ATR.

The covers are fine IF there is no snow and ice and daytime temperatures can be relied on to get above freezing. As Uttoxeter discovered, covers are fine until they get a couple of inches of snow on them. The problem for covered courses is getting rid of the snow before the covers can be moved - the problem for those without covers is whether a) the melting snow will cause waterlogging and b) the frozen ground will thaw in time.

Kempton need to get rid of the snow first (a very slow thaw in London this morning but more snow forecast) and then hope for some rising temperatures. At the moment, I'd say 50/50 for Sunday but no better. Overall, some of the more bullish comments from the usual suspects fly in the face of reality and a number of courses must already be in the "need a miracle" camp.

The forecast models are still very confused - all seem to confirm it will take until at least Boxing Day for temperatures to begin any sustained recovery though better and quicker out west (which offers hope for Limerick, Chepstow and Ffos Las). Thereafter, it COULD become progressively milder up to New Year or it COULD be a very brief milder blip before a return to colder conditions as early as the 29th.
 
Update...

Confirming a slow but steady thaw in London and the south-east this morning. It may well be that frosts will remain a problem and there may yet be a sharp frost on Christmas Night but overall there are clear signs of improvement.
 
krizon said:
You just didn't believe me, did you, SteveMmmm? Now that the Press Ass announces the covers will be hell to move with the snow on them, it's probably correct. I put it up and I get you saying they'll have the 'manforce' (is that like a workforce, only more butch?) in place to whup 'em off. That's the last time I tell you anything, do you hear?
Click to expand...

:) If it is possible to go ahead the workforce is the last of their worries. They'll shift it if they need to.

As regards the state of the ground, I have been quite sceptical about what the racecourse had been saying, thinking it much more unlikely that racing will take place than the earlier received wisdom, so I was actually swayed toward believing it is in jeopardy (rather than resistant to the idea) after what you said.
 
KEMPTON HAVE GROUND FOR OPTIMISM
By Tom Peacock, Press Association Sport
Kempton's clerk of the course must now worry mainly about the weather forecast after a peek under the covers on the jumps course revealed good news.
Clifford has kept the grass under wraps for some days now in an attempt to thwart the cold in time for the William Hill King George VI Chase on Boxing Day.
"I had a look with some of the jockeys, including Sam Thomas, and the ground is perfectly raceable," said Clifford.
"As a going report I would say it is just on the slow side of good.
"Now we've got the other problems to deal with, such as the snow, but I would say at least half the volume of snow has melted.
"It could be snowing or sleeting tonight and we're taking the same approach of taking it day by day, as it's a moveable feast."
It has been reported that the King George, in which Kauto Star bids for a record fifth victory, could be shifted to the following afternoon should Boxing Day fall victim to the
 
clivex said:
KEMPTON HAVE GROUND FOR OPTIMISM
By Tom Peacock, Press Association Sport
Kempton's clerk of the course must now worry mainly about the weather forecast after a peek under the covers on the jumps course revealed good news.
Clifford has kept the grass under wraps for some days now in an attempt to thwart the cold in time for the William Hill King George VI Chase on Boxing Day.
"I had a look with some of the jockeys, including Sam Thomas, and the ground is perfectly raceable," said Clifford.
"As a going report I would say it is just on the slow side of good.
"Now we've got the other problems to deal with, such as the snow, but I would say at least half the volume of snow has melted.
"It could be snowing or sleeting tonight and we're taking the same approach of taking it day by day, as it's a moveable feast."
It has been reported that the King George, in which Kauto Star bids for a record fifth victory, could be shifted to the following afternoon should Boxing Day fall victim to the
Click to expand...

...if it were possible to switch it to the following day it seems that the chances of it going ahead on either the 26 or 27 are quite high. However, the racecourse itself would be ultra optimistic at this stage.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I don't know about the UK, but this snowfall in Dublin is becoming epic.

I would be amazed if Leopardstown were to race on Stephen's Day, as I mentioned in the other thread.
Click to expand...

Indeed you predicted a dramatic turnaround and betting has shifted dramatically.

After being ultra confident they are now saying (...someone's made money):

Leopardstown manager Tom Burke said: "I'm concerned that the track will not be raceable in time for racing on Sunday if current conditions persist."
Jason Morris, Horse Racing Ireland's director of racing, said the ideal contingency plan would be to run Sunday's card on December 30.

He added: "We leave that day blank in the calendar so that, should a Christmas racing day be abandoned at Leopardstown, Limerick or Down Royal, we can switch it to December 30."
 
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Update...

The outlook from the UK Met Office model is actually much colder than the American model I put links to a few minutes ago.

To update, TOWCESTER has already been abandoned, DOWN ROYAL has been postponed until December 30th and MARKET RASEN inspect at 12pm tomorrow.

More positive noises from Kempton and Fontwell today.
 
This side of Cheltenham is under at least 1 foot of snow, so the racecourse will be similar.

Daytime temperatures currently not expected to get above freezing until Thursday (though it did feel a fair bit warmer this morning), when they should make about 2 degrees average, with a possible (brief) high of 6 at mid-day on Friday.

The weather reports earlier this week showed much worse situations in Hereford and Wales.

Any of our Welsh forumites able to give an assessment of Chepstow's chances?
 
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Amy Starkey, Kempton's managing director, added: "We will be doing everything we can to get racing on for Boxing Day.
"Luckily we've had to deal with snow before, so we've been able to build up relationships.
"We would be able to get three JCBs in to clear snow if we needed to, and everyone here is so committed to work as hard as possible.
"If Boxing Day has to be abandoned, there can be arrangements made to run the King George and the Christmas Hurdle the following day."
 
Bar the Bull said:
My reading is that 26th is a goner in Dublin.

27th is 50/50.
Click to expand...

See earlier post it seems the 30th is the slot:

Leopardstown manager Tom Burke said: "I'm concerned that the track will not be raceable in time for racing on Sunday if current conditions persist."
Jason Morris, Horse Racing Ireland's director of racing, said the ideal contingency plan would be to run Sunday's card on December 30.

He added: "We leave that day blank in the calendar so that, should a Christmas racing day be abandoned at Leopardstown, Limerick or Down Royal, we can switch it to December 30."
 
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