Noted in Running: Jumps 21/22

Post #52 Tiny Tantrum runs tomorrow 1:52 Fakenham, early price 11/4 - has run 3rd/7 since post.

Another poor run - out of list now
 
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Post #34 Fern Hill runs tomorrow 1:15 Newbury, early price 11/1 - has run 2nd since post and up against Bravemansgame now
Post #50 Authorised Speed runs tomorrow 4:45 Newbury early price 5/2 - has Won since post
 
ASLUCKWILLHAVEIT 215Naas.
Never put in the race and finished 7th. Probably needs further and one for hcaps.
JP Horse.
 
barjon said:
Post #34 Fern Hill runs tomorrow 1:15 Newbury, early price 11/1 - has run 2nd since post and up against Bravemansgame now
Post #50 Authorised Speed runs tomorrow 4:45 Newbury early price 5/2 - has Won since post
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Non runner
Upl
 
Outsider said:
ART APPROVAL Just my opinion but I thought Brennan gave this an awful ride today and I will be interested if this now runs in a pertemps qualifier and would probably need to win.rated in the 120s.
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Runs in the 330ex tomorrow,a pertemps qualifier.rated 128.
 
Early price for Art Approval (above post) 7/2
Post #27 Triple Trade runs tomorrow 2:30 Exeter, early price 5/6 - has won since post
Post #62 Destinee Royale runs tomorrow 4:00 Exeter, early price 9/2 - has pulled up since post

Upl
3rd 8/11
Upl
 
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Unfortunately those last three just tip the thread into the red on starting prices (still black with early prices). Win rate is marginally above 50%, but there have been too many odds-on shots coming through.
 
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barjon said:
Unfortunately those last three just tip the thread into the red on starting prices (still black with early prices). Win rate is marginally above 50%, but there have been too many odds-on shots coming through.
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I wouldn't worry too much about that, barjon. On a number of occasions it wouldn't make too much sense to actually back the horse.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't worry too much about that, barjon. On a number of occasions it wouldn't make too much sense to actually back the horse.
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Yes that’s true, but they would be personal decisions. In reporting on the thread I think giving the worst case scenario is best. Just to rub it in Run to Milan won today after being taken out of the list (he did have a 28/1 4th place which paid out, but not counted in the stats which are win only based).
 
Post #34 Fern Hill runs tomorrow 3:20 Lingfield, early price 11/2 - has run 2nd/7 since post

Non-runner
 
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Post #75 Up for Parol runs tomorrow 2:05 Wetherby, early price 2/1

3rd 13/8
 
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Shannon Bridge also in the 2.05 Wetherby gets in off 129 4lb lower than when he won a good race at Ascot last year. I’m convinced he has a good race in him and will be following over the cliff today


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barjon said:
Post #75 Up for Parol runs tomorrow 2:05 Wetherby, early price 2/1

3rd 13/8
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My only doubt was I thought it didnt stay in the lanzarote and it appears I was right.
I would like to see him in the county hurdle at a big price off 132.
 
viking said:
Shannon Bridge also in the 2.05 Wetherby gets in off 129 4lb lower than when he won a good race at Ascot last year. I’m convinced he has a good race in him and will be following over the cliff today


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Well that was a **** poor effort. Won’t be backing him again


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Four running tomorrow, weather permitting.

Post #34 Fern Hill Ascot 1:50, early price 6/1 - has run 2nd/7 since post
Post # 48 Adrimel Haydock 1:00, early price 8/11
Post # 58 Hillcrest Haydock 3:50, early price 11/8 - unseated rider since post
Post # 126 The Galloping Bear Haydock 2:40, early rice 10/1
 
My take on The Galloping Bear's race:

HAY 2.40 WILLIAM HILL GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) (GBB RACE)
[TABLE="width: 770"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
173
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12P-P3
[/TD]
[TD] Bristol De Mai
[/TD]
[TD]11-12
[/TD]
[TD]Sam T-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]174
[/TD]
[TD]179?
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P-UP26
[/TD]
[TD] Lord Du Mesnil
[/TD]
[TD]11-3
[/TD]
[TD]Kielan Woods
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[TD]p?
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]/3-732
[/TD]
[TD] Sam Brown
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[TD]A Coleman
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]46-511
[/TD]
[TD] Blaklion
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]? vv
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]/F11-5
[/TD]
[TD] Secret Reprieve
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Adam Wedge
[/TD]
[TD]138
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]129
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2-8214
[/TD]
[TD] Mint Condition
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]Brian Hughes
[/TD]
[TD]137
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[TD]nov
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]32-715
[/TD]
[TD] Kalooki
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]Tom O'Brien
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]211-F1
[/TD]
[TD] The Galloping Bear
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Ben Jones
[/TD]
[TD]140
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD]+
169p
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15P-51
[/TD]
[TD] Enqarde
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]C Hammond
[/TD]
[TD]137
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-4111F
[/TD]
[TD] Sidi Ismael
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]David Noonan
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[TD]p nov
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3411-0
[/TD]
[TD] Time To Get Up
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]J O'Neill Jr
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


This is a good race. I’m working on the assumption that nothing below 145 will make the cut for the big race in April and I’m not sure those above that mark will want a slog in a bog even though seven weeks is time enough to recover. Secret Reprieve, it turns out, wasn’t ready for the Welsh National last time so the disappointing run is forgivable. The trainer has said he was delighted with the run. If they have genuine aspirations for the big one he’ll need to win well enough to get his mark up at least 7lbs and keep it at that kind of level until this time next season so his place as 11/4f is justified. He was about 5/2 for last season’s Welsh National. I’ll probably look at the market without him now. The two I’d be interested in there would be Bristol De Mai and Mint Condition. The former could do a Royale Pagaille to a field of handicappers while the latter has only had three runs over fences and falls into the ‘could be anything’ category. I do have concerns, though, about his seeing out the trip but the booking of Hughes suggests the stable likes his chances.
 
The Galloping Bear beat a 109 rated chaser at Lingfield lto. This is different gravy. Today The Mighty Arc was fancied against proper horses after a win at Sedgefield. They are just meeting better horses as they step up in grade.
 
Euronymous said:
The Galloping Bear beat a 109 rated chaser at Lingfield lto. This is different gravy. Today The Mighty Arc was fancied against proper horses after a win at Sedgefield. They are just meeting better horses as they step up in grade.
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Seems all the rage - down to 4/1 now.
 
Pricewise...

... which I haven't read but I imagine his reasoning wold be similar to mine: an improving hunter towards the end of last season and a dark horse for staying chases this time.

From Post #126:

Desert Orchid said:
The horse was strong in the market through the morning from its early 14/1 into roughly half those odds but drifted again late back out to 12s. In softish ground off top weight it made or disputed the running over 3m5f before keeping on very strongly all the way to the line.

He's gone up 5lbs to 140 so if he can get into another Class 3 he won't have to carry any more weight than he did last week as he'll be top-weight off that mark and I can see him putting up a similar performance in a similar test. If he goes up to Class 2 he could get into a good race closer to the 11-0 mark, which might be worth trying to see if he can cope with taking on better horses.

But he's a lightly raced type who might just be on a decent curve. I'll certainly be watching his progress with interest but will only back him if my figures suggest it's worth the punt.

But I like this horse.
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I do think he has a tough task today against these types but he might be more consistent than some of them.

The win wouldn't be a surprise at all but I just fancy others a wee bit more.
 
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Proper staying performance. I shoulda kept the faith.

2023 Grand National? Will go up to about 146 for that so they don't need to go mental with it, just keep it around that mark.
 
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barjon said:
Four running tomorrow, weather permitting.

Post #34 Fern Hill Ascot 1:50, early price 6/1 - has run 2nd/7 since post
Post # 48 Adrimel Haydock 1:00, early price 8/11
Post # 58 Hillcrest Haydock 3:50, early price 11/8 - unseated rider since post
Post # 126 The Galloping Bear Haydock 2:40, early rice 10/1
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Upl
Won 4/6
Won evens
Won 9/2
 
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