Noted in Running: Jumps 21/22

Post #56:

Desert Orchid said:
Leopardstown today (29 December), G1 3m novice chase - Vanillier

That looked a hot race. I had Fury Road second-top rated (to Run Wild Fred) but the fav had already shown improvement from his hurdles form and I half-expected Fury Road to improve past him but I wanted more from Vanillier who still ran well until the jockey stopped asking him to have a go at his fences about a mile from home and he repeatedly lost ground and momentum thereafter, bar maybe at one fence. It's entirely possible Vanillier softened RWF up for the challenge from FR.

I wouldn't give up on Vanillier. He is a lot better than the bare result and will show it as he gets braver at his fences. He's a year younger than the first two, after all.
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Just a 'watching brief' for me today. I still have high hopes that this one will win whichever novice chase he contests at the festival but there's no need for him to show his hand today, certainly not when he's having to give away 8lbs to decent animals. All he needs is an education in jumping at pace.

There's a chance he won't really take to fences at the top level but I believe in this horse's engine.

A win today, though, would fair put a cat among the pigeons.
 
Pretty much what I was expecting so can't say I'm disappointed.

In the big scheme of things today wasn't too important and at least it was a little step forward from last time. Don't forget the weight he was giving away either.
 
Just watched the replay the whole way through and am more encouraged by what I saw of Vanillier than just reading the result.

He jumped better than last time, especially in the last mile and was kept honest until eased down n the run-in.

I can't imagine he was 100% race-fit - I'd be disappointed if he were - and I'm clinging to the belief that festival form takes on extra significance when horses that run well there return.

Vanillier was very impressive in the Albert Bartlett and I had him well into the 150s for it, an above average winner. He's entitled to go on to be a mid-160s novice over fences and that should be good enough for at least a place in whichever race he goes for.

I'm mulling over the idea of punting him for the 2023 Gold Cup :)
 
viking said:
Bit disappointed with Vanillier there


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Amazingly he hasn't drifted after that, There was just nothing you could cling on to, to build up your hopes.

I suppose because he has form at the course the bookies are being cautious but he was off for his life today and had nothing to offer in the closing stages

The AB race fell apart last year and he's going to find the NHC a damn sight tougher IMO

The winner has gone past him way too easily to think that a 7lb pull would be nearly enough to reverse places and he may not even be the best horse in the race.
 
I don’t get this bet, DO.

Vanillier is a 20/1 chance for the RSA/Brown Advisory. Your bet - if its 50/1 price-tag is predicated by Vanillier winning at this Festival - is effectively like taking under 2/1 in the double for the 2023 Gold Cup, isn’t it?

Edit: He’s a 12’s chance for the NHC, which would boost GC odds a little, but not to anything like 10/1.
 
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Haha sometimes, vary rarely it has to be said, I see DO's punting as more of an art form as opposed to a serious money making exercise. I think this is one of them..

I chuckle writing this as I am guilty of it myself.

Henceforth I would willingly take 10,000/1 I am born into royalty in my next life. No particular reason either. I simply like the idea...
 
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Grasshopper said:
I don’t get this bet, DO.

Vanillier is a 20/1 chance for the RSA/Brown Advisory. Your bet - if its 50/1 price-tag is predicated by Vanillier winning at this Festival - is effectively like taking under 2/1 in the double for the 2023 Gold Cup, isn’t it?

Edit: He’s a 12’s chance for the NHC, which would boost GC odds a little, but not to anything like 10/1.
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He doesn't need to win, though. He just needs to run to a mark in the mid-160s as a novice, regardless of where he finishes in the race. He could even miss the festival and win or run very well at Aintree or Punchestown.

Last year I took 33/1 Zanahiyr for this year's Champion Hurdle before it ran in the Triumph. It didn't win that either but is 10/1 (with a run) at this stage and it's only won a G2 at odds-on in the last 13 months.
 
Marb said:
Haha sometimes, vary rarely it has to be said, I see DO's punting as more of an art form as opposed to a serious money making exercise. I think this is one of them..

I chuckle writing this as I am guilty of it myself.

Henceforth I would willingly take 10,000/1 I am born into royalty in my next life. No particular reason either. I simply like the idea...
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I had a ruch of blood to the head and thought maybe he's right and tried to get a lay price of 11/4but no one would entertain me.....how the hell does he get these prices matched and from who?
 
I spent half the night sitting up because my statin tablet lodged in my gullet and wouldn't shift!

Lots of ironic thoughts swimming around in my head this morning...
 
Outsider said:
They are supposed to keep you alive not kill you��
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That's one of them...

Another is, I don't really think I need them. My cholesterol count was always around the 3.0 mark until one iffy six-month spell a few years back when I wasn't eating well and it crept up to 4.2, which is when the doc started prescribing them, despite saying, "Your bad cholesterol count is higher than it was but still lower than average, which is a good thing, and your good cholesterol level is very high, which is even better, but your overall count is 4.2 so I think you should go on to statins..."

I didn't object because I'd been told by a vascular consultant that an American study had concluded that if I took one statin and one small aspirin each day "you'd live forever" before adding "metaphorically speaking, of course".

What they didn't tell me was that declaring statins on my travel insurance application would fvcking double the premium :mad:
 
Global Citizen is entered up for the Contenders on Saturday along with Goshen

Goshen actually never ran too badly at Lingfield thanks to his jockey being wise to his every move
Sandown is right handed so it should help him keep his mind on the job.

As for Do' and Marb's Global Citizen he is sadly for Ben Pauling about the best hurdler he has so why not shoot for the moon and with luck you might hit a cloud on the way down.

Worst thing that can happen is the H'capper drops him another few pounds and they find a really bad race for him later but I'll be amazed if he poses any threat on Saturday
 
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Will he receive any weight on Saturday?

Its a listed race but I would like to see the weights. I was hoping they would keep him for a race like the Imperial Cup.
 
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barjon said:
Post #32 Demachine runs tomorrow 3:20 Doncaster, early price 8/1 - has run since post, unseated 1st.
Post #58 Hillcrest runs tomorrow 3:40 Cheltenham, early price 6/4
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Just been reading that Demachine made respiratory noises in the home straight which may explain why he stopped as if shot after cruising along beforehand. He’ll probably have another op, but not to be trusted atm.
 
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