Noted in Running: Jumps 21/22

I've been holding back for a week with this one, waiting to see what new mark The Galloping Bear would get following his win at Lingfield last Sunday, 23 January.

The horse was strong in the market through the morning from its early 14/1 into roughly half those odds but drifted again late back out to 12s. In softish ground off top weight it made or disputed the running over 3m5f before keeping on very strongly all the way to the line.

He's gone up 5lbs to 140 so if he can get into another Class 3 he won't have to carry any more weight than he did last week as he'll be top-weight off that mark and I can see him putting up a similar performance in a similar test. If he goes up to Class 2 he could get into a good race closer to the 11-0 mark, which might be worth trying to see if he can cope with taking on better horses.

But he's a lightly raced type who might just be on a decent curve. I'll certainly be watching his progress with interest but will only back him if my figures suggest it's worth the punt.

But I like this horse.
 
Got an entry - 19-02-22 HAY 14:40 WILLIAM HILL GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL HANDICAP CHASE (Grade 3) (1)
 
I saw that, bj, but didn't realise it was an early-closer. I'd presumed it was this weekend and reckoned it would be too soon.

No Grand National entry so could afford to go and win at Haydock if it's recovered.
 
Marb said:
Will he receive any weight on Saturday?

Its a listed race but I would like to see the weights. I was hoping they would keep him for a race like the Imperial Cup.
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Buveur was rated 172 Ros kk ana a mere 142 and he only gave 7lbs...no idea what actual weight conditions are but it won't be much...got something to do with how many grade 1 and 2 races you have won that determines how much you carry
 
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Post #22 Pic D’Orhy runs tomorrow Sandown 2:20, early price 15/8 - has won since post
Post #75 Dans Le Vent runs tomorrow Sandown 2:55, early price 10/1
Post #84 Global Citizen runs tomorrow Sandown 1:50, early price 7/1

Upl 3rd/5
3rd 13/2
Upl 3rd/5
 
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In the stuff I sent out yesterday I wrote about Global Citizen:

I can’t quite fathom why they are running Global Citizen in this. I think he is ridiculously well-handicapped and could be competitive in any top handicap. Surely they won’t blow his mark for a piddling £17k that he’s unlikely to win anyway? I think 3/1 Goshen is a great bet. His mark relates to his recent run at Lingfield when he fought Moore the whole way round the left-handed track and he’ll surely be much more amenable going this way. The slight concern is the drop back in trip but the stiff finish might help. I certainly wouldn’t back any of the others to beat him.


Pic D'Orhy:

This looks an interesting head to head. L’Homme Pressé (5/6f) has lived up to name but I’m a big fan of Pic D’Orhy(15/8). I just worry that he might be one of those Nicholls horses that got his flu jab in January and needs a bit of time to get back to form. Nicholls doesn’t seem to target this race. I think I’ll just watch because I wouldn’t put it past Hendo to pull a rabbit out of the hat with Mister Coffey.
 
Re Pic D'Ohry, he will swerve Cheltenham, and I figured he would be trained to the minute for this today. I'm therefore mildly surprised to see him drifting.
 
Grasshopper said:
Re Pic D'Ohry, he will swerve Cheltenham, and I figured he would be trained to the minute for this today. I'm therefore mildly surprised to see him drifting.
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I wonder if he's being trained for Aintree.

There's also that big 2m4f hcap chase at Newbury that Nicholls is so fond of winning.
 
I think the Manifesto is definitely the spring target, DO. It's guesswork whether he's fully-wound up for this today, but with Cheltenham just round the corner, it's perhaps L'Homme Presse that will have been left with a little something to work on (also guesswork!)?

I think these are two promising young chasers with not a lot between them on form, imo, and I'm not convinced the market is reflective of that. At 5/2, I'll be taking my chance on the Nicholls runner.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I think these are two promising young chasers with not a lot between them on form, imo, and I'm not convinced the market is reflective of that. At 5/2, I'll be taking my chance on the Nicholls runner.
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My figures are saying the same thing and were pushing me towards backing PDO but the fact that Nicholls's horses don't seem to be firing - presumably the ones that have had their flu jab - and his not making a serious impact on this race over the years are enough to have me just watching the race.
 
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He's supposedly going to the Pendil and Aintree after today. He's a proper horse on his day, but the yard form is way beyond just being 'jab season'. They are running as badly as I've seen in a long, long time.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the stuff I sent out yesterday I wrote about Global Citizen:

I can’t quite fathom why they are running Global Citizen in this. I think he is ridiculously well-handicapped and could be competitive in any top handicap. Surely they won’t blow his mark for a piddling £17k that he’s unlikely to win anyway? I think 3/1 Goshen is a great bet. His mark relates to his recent run at Lingfield when he fought Moore the whole way round the left-handed track and he’ll surely be much more amenable going this way. The slight concern is the drop back in trip but the stiff finish might help. I certainly wouldn’t back any of the others to beat him.
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I'm enjoying today's racing :)

I'm hoping the handicapper goes easy on Global Citizen. He's given him more reason to bump him up. Crazy stuff from connections having him run so well in this.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
My figures are saying the same thing and were pushing me towards backing PDO but the fact that Nicholls's horses don't seem to be firing - presumably the ones that have had their flu jab - and his not making a serious impact on this race over the years are enough to have me just watching the race.
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Kept my powder dry with this one. Glad I did. But this one will win something decent.

The Ultima, maybe?
 
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Bonjers said:
He's supposedly going to the Pendil and Aintree after today. He's a proper horse on his day, but the yard form is way beyond just being 'jab season'. They are running as badly as I've seen in a long, long time.
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I thought when Dolos won that the Nicholls horses were regaining some form but we’ve seen the ones after that running well below form. PDO, Frodon, Kapcorse, Real Steel, Highland Hunter all very disappointing (perhaps not Real Steel who’s probably gone at the game anyway)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
viking said:
I thought when Dolos won that the Nicholls horses were regaining some form but we’ve seen the ones after that running well below form. PDO, Frodon, Kapcorse, Real Steel, Highland Hunter all very disappointing (perhaps not Real Steel who’s probably gone at the game anyway)


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Very odd isn't it - Dolos the only one who has run to the line in about two weeks now.
 
Post #7 Brorson runs tomorrow 2:40 Musselburgh, early price 9/4 - uplWW since post
Post #57 Saint Roi runs tomorrow 3:00 Leopardstown, early price 14/1 - up against Honeysuckle :)
 
Post #57

Desert Orchid said:
Leopardstown 29 December - Saint Roi - Deserves a huge mark-up for going a suicidal pace up front and still not beaten far at the line with the other front-runner Petit Mouchoir fading out the back of the telly.

There's a fair chance he won't actually go for the Champion Hurdle but if Epatante is the best JP has over here then I don't see why Saint Roi shouldn't be allowed to take his chance. He might also have a shout off likely top-weight in the County off 155, assuming the handicapper leaves him alone.

Either way, it will be very interesting to see where they go with him now.
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That was enough to have me take 40/1 for the Champion Hurdle and I'm onside with that but I'll be surprised if he's good enough to trouble Honeysuckle tomorrow. I might look at the without market but I also have Zanahiyr at 33s for the CH so I'll probably just watch the race.
 
RIVIÈRE D’ETEL

Leopardstown 5th February
Patrick Ward & Co Solicitors Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
2m1f, €88,800
Going: Yielding

In think RIVIÈRE D’ETEL was a very unlucky loser. Looked in command coming into the last she pecked fairly badly losing momentum and a length or so. Got herself going again only to be crossed by the winner - Blue Lord - when she was checked losing getting on for another length and momentum. Two lengths down by the time she got going again she started pulling it back, but still had half a length to find at the line.

I think Blue Lord was lucky to keep the race and I’ll back Rivière D’Etel to reverse the placings if they meet again.
 
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Pedant alert...

RDE is a mare.

Other than that I agree but she might be kept to mares-only races going forward. Easy pickings in races like that.
 
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