Novice Chasers 2009/10

SWC would be a big negative for me, and I'd trade out a good proportion if he was definitely to ride. He lost Long Run a lot of momentum at fences in the Feltham, often taking time to re-organise himself after landing, and it's not possible to do this and win an Arkle.

Anyone with any views on his competence?
 
Competent and thats about it...he does not add anything to the horse. But I would not blame him for jumping errors at Kempton bar the second last. Looks a horse that just takes a chance at them...when he meets them right he is fine.
 
I think he is as capable an amatuer as there is out there, but that might be because he only ever seems to get on decent horses.

If Long Run wins the Scilly Isles with SWC up, I will be looking to trade out for a nice lump of profit, with some left running for me. The horse is a high-class individual, but there are a some question marks about his jumping (less of an issue than some suggest, imo), the track (undulating course a complete unknown, imo) and the level of the competition (the biggest obstacle to victory, imo).

The Arkle is shaping to be the best renewal in years (even without CAJ) and the winner is going to have to put up a pretty-much flawless display to win. That seems less likely to happen with SWC in the plate, than with a pro, so I'm tempering my enthusiasm a bit.
 
Grasshopper said:
Absolutely fantastic news for myself (and I suspect, Irish Stamp). I have £19 riding at an average of just under 170 for the Arkle (alongside a similar amount at 30 for the RSA Chase).

Let's hope this switch of targets is confirmed very soon - it certainly sounds on the cards if Waley-Cohen and Henderson's remarks are to be believed.
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I traded out of my Arkle position at 30 the other day Grassy - still a massive winner though, marginally less than for the RSA Chase but I don't mind so much it's a negligible amount in the grand scheme of things and managed to cover my worst AP bet of the year on Dee Ee Williams for the Arkle too.

I don't think SWC is too much of a negative - he's likely to get more big race experience in the coming months courtesy of Long Run and Stravinsky Dance and whilst I'd prefer to see Barry G or another top jockey riding it could be much worse.
 
I think he's a definite negative and the horse will make a mistake that puts him out of the race
 
Willie Mullins hopes to have Mikael D'Haguenet back in action before the end of the month.
The brilliant six-year-old is unbeaten since joining Mullins, his six-race haul including last year's Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham.
However he is yet to see the racetrack this term after a splint problem - but his return is imminent.
"I had him up at the vets on Wednesday and they can't really find anything, maybe just a little stiffness behind but that might just have been caused by transferring weight from the front with the splint" Mullins said.
"We are going to carry on with him and the weather is now a bigger obstacle than anything else but hopefully he will be out before the end of the month."
Mikael D'Haguenet was expected to go over fences this term but was recently quoted for the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle after speculation he may stick to the smaller obstacles.
"At the moment he is novice chasing. He hasn't schooled recently but he's run over fences in France and is a natural jumper so we're not too unduly worried about that," Mullins added.
"I'm not even worried about targets yet - let's just get back to the racetrack first."

Willie Mullins is leaning towards the RSA Chase as Cousin Vinny's Cheltenham target.
The winner of the 2008 Weatherbys Champion Bumper at the Festival, the seven-year-old finished second to Roberto Goldback on his chasing debut at Navan in December.
With Cheltenhan in mind, Mullins is keen to get more experience over fences in to his star - and quickly.
"I was delighted with his jumping the other day. He was nice and careful," Mullins said.
"He is a horse I'd like to get two runs into before Chelteham but sadly it's getting tight. I may have to run him in one of the good novice chases rather than a beginners chase and as soon as the freeze stops I will be trying to get him out.
"He'll be entered for the Arkle but I'd imagine his target could be the RSA Chase."
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Good idea to send Cousin Vinny for the RSA - wouldn't have a chance in the Arkle.

Is Tatianano a little bit forgotten at the moment? Very hard to equate his form though with the others.

I have the Arkle down to 4 at the moment - Captain Cee Bee, Tatianano, Long Run and Mikael d'h.
 
Would be dissapointed if he did; I'm planning on place laying him as well as laying him in-running in the Arkle.
 
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Anything good enough to win this year's Arkle is almost certianly good enough to finish second in this year's Champion Chase provided the old Master Minded turns up. Given that horse is yet to prove he is capable of running to old form, there's a chance the Arkle will be a better race than the Champion. Poor work from any trainer of a leading Arkle horse not to have a Champion Chase entry I think.
 
He said he would give him an entry in the Champion but that the novice was far more likely option and I expect him to run in it.

Think it is mad place laying the horse with his sort of ability even if you think there is a hole in him. He is very likely to stay on his feet, sure to be travelling well for 90% of the race and is likely to be a good deal better than he showed the last day given it was probably his most unfluent round of jumping. Whats more he will have more experience than most of the novices in the race particularly now with so many meeting off.

Oppose the horse if you feel the need, but I would just find the horse you want to take him on with.
 
Galileo said:
He is very likely to stay on his feet, sure to be travelling well for 90% of the race and is likely to be a good deal better than he showed the last day given it was probably his most unfluent round of jumping. .
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Unfluent round of jumping or the first time he had taken on decent horses and was shown up as not all he's cracked up to be?
 
Hamm said:
Unfluent round of jumping or the first time he had taken on decent horses and was shown up as not all he's cracked up to be?
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He was poor jumping from the start - nothing to do with the competition.

Unfluent - rightly picked up on Grasshopper my apologies!!
 
A real pity Captain Cee Bee came down because it would have answered a few questions that remain unsolved. The first time I saw the race I went with the obvious conclusion that Captain cee Bee would have won, but on reflection I'm not 100% sure. It's more likely than not he would have, but Sizing Europe hadn't been asked for everything it was encouraging to see him at least maintain distance with Osana once off the bridle. He's still got a big shout I think.
 
davidjohnson said:
A real pity Captain Cee Bee came down because it would have answered a few questions that remain unsolved. The first time I saw the race I went with the obvious conclusion that Captain cee Bee would have won, but on reflection I'm not 100% sure. It's more likely than not he would have, but Sizing Europe hadn't been asked for everything it was encouraging to see him at least maintain distance with Osana once off the bridle. He's still got a big shout I think.
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Something that seems to be forgotten - he still thumped Osana 5 lengths.
 
I'm all over Captain Cee Bee for the Arkle. Sizing Europe will run out of puff, Tataniano is not quick enough (I think Foster's Cross would have given him a real race last time were it not for him coming down) and i'm struggling to see what else has a legitimate chance apart from maybe Long Run or Mikael D'Haguenet if they turn up.

Since taking to obstacles Captain Cee Bee has only lost twice, once due to injury and the last day due to a fall. He jumps well (In the main) and stays every inch of a strongly run two miles which I think will be key come Cheltenham. The only thing which will stop me backing him is if the ground came up quick, which is unlikely.
 
Agree with you - I think he'll be better on relatively quicker ground than he's had thus far over fences in Ireland.
 
Dropped a bit of a rick there, there is one horse that I would fear. Somersby. Not sure he'll have the speed but then I didn't think he'd have the speed to beat Crack away Jack and he did, comfortably.
 
Don't think we should lose perspective of the Leopardstown race either way. A 5 1/2l beating of Osana (albeit over a sharper test than ideal) is the second strongest form on offer (behind only Somersby's performance in the Henry VIII) and an improvement on Sizing Europe's prior form. Equally, though he produced his least fluent round of jumping to date, it was by no means a bad round (with a mistake at the fourth and being slow over three out the primary blemishes I saw). To suggest he will improve massively on that jumping is a pretty dangerous assumption.

He didn't do enough to prove conclusively the doubts I've already expressed about what he will find but, at the same time, I'm not looking to take him on at 13/2. I will probably look to lay him IR (place lay depends on the price on the day - though it probably won't be substantially different if he goes straight there) and have Somersby (8's about the most likely winner is a decent bet I reckon) and Tataniano running for me.
 
If anyone was in any doubt Punchestowns will be prepared exclusively for the RSA Chase. I get the feeling they would not want to put Long Run up against him, so perhaps the Arkle would be the target for him.
 
The PA has put an item out suggesting the RSA Chase is more likely than the Arkle for Long Run and that the yard would not worry about keeping them apart (contrary to what they seemed to be saying a short while ago).

So at the moment the RSA Chase is a definite target for Puchestowns and a probable target for Long Run.
 
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