Novice Chasers 2009/10

Captain Cee Bee certainly looks to be well over his injury. You've got to respect his chances now.
 
Agreed Bobbjo - I did not fancy him today but he travelled with alot of class today. I cannot see how either Sizing Europe or Captain Cee Bee could be ruled out of Cheltenham based on that effort. Granted a clear round they should be there or there abouts.
 
Capt Cee Bee got to the front line going easily enough. I think he would have won but it would probably have been a battle.
 
Still finding it near impossible to form a concrete opinion of Sizing Europe one way or the other. On the one hand he has comprehensively outpaced a very decent horse in Osana turning in (despite the fact he almost certainly needs a stiffer test imo) in a race run at a generous gallop. On the other hand I still have my doubts about the way he was finishing off today's race (wasn't convinced by the manner in which he ran to the line after the last, nor by his head carriage). Though my above post was over the top, I wouldn't have any qualms opposing him at 7/2 for the Arkle.

Such a pity Captain Cee Bee didn't stand up.
 
Galileo said:
Agreed Bobbjo - I did not fancy him today but he travelled with alot of class today. I cannot see how either Sizing Europe or Captain Cee Bee could be ruled out of Cheltenham based on that effort. Granted a clear round they should be there or there abouts.
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I was the same Gal, i didn't fancy the captain today but felt he'd run a good race without threatening and i was ready to line up a bet for the arkle. He ran far above my expectations at this stage of his comeback. I think that was the worst case scenario for the horse today. I hope i'm wrong, but it could affect his confidence after that fall. Could have been worse, granted, but a clear round was a high priority. I hope he doesn't need a confidence booster over hurdles this close to Cheltenham.

He'd have out battled Sizing Europe if he'd stayed up imo.
 
I thought Sizing Europe ran very well to the line and won comfortably. Captain Cee Bee might well have beaten him today if he had stood up but it would be no sure thing imo.

Sizing Europe came off the bridle today and did not fall into a hole - thats a big plus in my book particularly when he did not jump well today - erratically even Steve!!
 
I liked alot of what SE done today. CCB cruised up no doubts but he is clearly no mug and I think SE would have found more if needed

If anything I think SE needs more than 2 miles but its best to keep him over the minimum trip this season
 
Galileo said:
Long Run could be a freak if he learns to jump British fences correctly - looks to have a monster of an engine. Really really impressive.
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Nothing wrong with his jumping on the whole Sam WC (as I mentioned elsewhere) was like a 14 pound penalty with his repeated attempts ti fall off. Lets hope they put a proper jockey up next.

If so, this horse is unbeatable this season.
 
If they sort his jumping out SWC will do fine on Long Run - as an AP backer of him at big prices I'm already having nightmares about the run to two out and memories of Japhet et al.

I like Punchestowns - but tend to agree with Hamm that he won't get near Long Run if the latter's jumping holds up and like with Kauto Star before him there's plenty of time to sort it out. He's had 5 starts over fences and only one in the UK, there's 3 months until Cheltenham and the acide test :)
 
I also have fancy prices about Long Run, but the suggestion that Punchestowns "wouldn't get near him" is massively presumptive.

The latter was much the better hurdler of the pair, won head-in-chest in his one chase start to date, and it's far too early to be stating he won't be as good as his stable-mate.
 
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Tataniano out in 2days at Newbury, will try and make a trip to see the future Arkle winner.
 
Grasshopper said:
I also have fancy prices about Long Run, but the suggestion that Punchestowns "wouldn't get near him" is massively presumptive.

The latter was much the better hurdler of the pair, won head-in-chest in his one chase start to date, and it's far too early to be stating he won't be as good as his stable-mate.
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My comment was a touch tongue in cheek based on the previous poster's assertion that Long Run would give Punchestowns a race; for me Punchestowns has a lot to prove as a novice chaser and it's clear who should be favourite for the RSA at this point in time.
 
Grasshopper said:
I also have fancy prices about Long Run, but the suggestion that Punchestowns "wouldn't get near him" is massively presumptive.

The latter was much the better hurdler of the pair, won head-in-chest in his one chase start to date, and it's far too early to be stating he won't be as good as his stable-mate.
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Punchestowns had an entire season hurdling whilst Long Run had a year at most - and that was against his own age group. Long Run never had the chance to take on his elders and to be fair even if he was still over hurdles in his native country now he wouldn't be running against them until February.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Punchestowns had an entire season hurdling whilst Long Run had a year at most - and that was against his own age group. Long Run never had the chance to take on his elders and to be fair even if he was still over hurdles in his native country now he wouldn't be running against them until February.
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Not sure I see your point, Martin.

If Long Run's hurdling form can't be properly judged because he 'never had the chance' to prove himself, then how can we properly judge Punchestowns as a novice chaser after only one outing?

We can't have it both ways, can we?

Hamm, it's pretty evident that Long Run is the one they have to beat at this stage, and he deserves to be favourite for the race - but that isn't the same as writing-off Punchestowns as a no hoper who won't get to within "7/8 lengths of Long Run is there is a proper jockey up" (acknowledge that your comment was made toungue-in-cheek).

Put it this way, I'd be disappointed if Punchestowns couldn't beat Tazbar 15L if he was receiving 7lbs.
 
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As you say it would be wrong to judge Punchestowns on the back of one run but the form of that run with Marty's Mission in second isn't all that over fences and Punchestowns only did what you'd expect him to do based on his hurdling rating and with some disappointing horses in behind (notably Dee Ee Williams who appears to be particularly poor over fences relative to how I'd expected him to be). The horses that Long Run beat were a fair bit better than those Punchestowns beat - I was particularly impressed by Tazbar on his chasing debut at Musselburgh and Ogee was a Grade 1 novice hurdler last season.

Hopefully there'll be a strong turnout for the Dipper Novices so that Punchestowns will get a true test :)

Martin

Will Long Run be receiving some kind of 5yo allowance in March?
 
GH,

the assertion that Long Run is the one to beat is not shared by most based on current markets, hence my postings.
 
Euro, I know the 5yo wfa allowance has disappeared for spring races over 2m.......but (and I'm not entirely certain) I've a feeling that they might still receive a couple of lbs over trips in excess of 3m?

Not that Long Run will likely need the concession, mind you.
 
Anyone know if young Waley-Cohen will keep the ride or whether it will go to someone like Barry Geraghty?
 
I think they did originally say he was “slightly lame” and due out at Xmas
Can only guess he had another setback, as am certain the column said out for the season now and that’s backed up by his Betfair price of 170/1 for RSA
 
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