Novice Chasers 2009/10

French Opera wouldn't be without a chance in the Arkle were he to line up, and I think he may well have the highest OR in the field. His form was massively boosted by Free World running behind Kalahari King last time out, with Free World only receiving around 5 pounds from the Champion chase contender. On a line through this form, he must have every chance and has good course and distance form. Seems to act on all types of ground, and at 25/1 NRNB, I'm beginning to think this is one of the best bets at the festival.

If there was no such thing as media bias, and hype, this horse could be much less than half his current odds.

Edited to say the form of those he beat at Cheltenham in December has worked out really well.
 
Last edited:
One of the reasons that French Opera looks to have such a good form chance is because he has had the opportunity to show how good he is by racing in handicaps. Granted he may still be getting better, but of those at the head of the betting in the Arkle, I'd have expected them to win Cheltenham handicaps off 147 with more in hand that what French Opera did when last seen. That said, I'm hardly sticking my neck out on a 25/1-on shot.
 
Probably, yes, but I'm not sure the way the race was run the last day gave him a chance to fully extend his superiority.

Wouldn't his form with Free World put him in the mix though?

Perhaps not the scope for improvement but certainly better form than a lot of those ahead of him in the betting - Tataniano, Sports Line and Riverside Theatre for example.
 
Isn't Free World both exposed and inconsistent?

He's not a horse I would want propping-up my argument, I have to say, Hamm.
 
Then that doesn't say a lot for Kalahari King though, does it?

Perhaps before I would agree with you, but since they have started riding him differently he seems to have improved a lot.

I'm not saying he has the best form/most likely to win, but he is certainly capable of running to mid 150s which would be close on good enough for at least a place.
 
Hamm said:
Then that doesn't say a lot for Kalahari King though, does it?

Perhaps before I would agree with you, but since they have started riding him differently he seems to have improved a lot.

I'm not saying he has the best form/most likely to win, but he is certainly capable of running to mid 150s which would be close on good enough for at least a place.
Click to expand...

Kalahari Kingwas top-weight in a competitive handicap, first-time-out, and still won with a fair bit up his sleeve. Free World's proximity doesn't hold-down KK's performance on iota, imo.
 
Free World only received 5 pounds. Clearly, Kalahari King was fit enough to do himself justice, and Free World must come out of that race around the mid 150s (maybe slightly slower). Regardless, that would put French Opera right in there in the mid 150s with perhaps a little more to come.

What would you say Kalahari King ran to the last day?
 
I had KK on 161+ after the race, reckoning there was likely more to come after a series of minor setbacks.

That would put Free World on around 151, meaning that if he has run to a similar mark at Cheltenham, the French Opera is perhaps capable of a similar level (all other things being equal). If he ran to that rating in an Arkle, he would have a decent chance of placing, I concede - but Free World is too easily beaten, imo, and I'd worry about how much FO actually achieved when accounting for him.
 
On RUK's Cheltenham Preview show today it was mentioned that Paul N was keen to run Tataniano in the Grand Annual rather than the Arkle but that the owners are probably more keen to run in the Grade 1. Suggests he does not think the horse is good enough and that Ruby will ride Sportsline.
 
Very weak on Betfair last night-must be a doubt.
I could see Woolcombe Folly being a springer in the Arkle market.
 
Interesting articles in the Post today for fans of Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee.

De Bromhead's comments about SE would worry me if I was a backer:

“If you look at Sizing Europe at Leopardstown, he jumped the first like he normally jumps a fence, accelerating through the air, which is why he is so good over fences. Then he fiddled a few and Andrew had to really get at him to jump the final few. “That’s not Sizing Europe, there was just something at him. He’s had
physios and chiropractors and everything else since and seems very well. He’s schooled well and is freshened up for this, so hopefully we’ve ironed out whatever was amiss at Leopardstown.”​
Click to expand...
 
Hamm said:
Interesting articles in the Post today for fans of Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee.

De Bromhead's comments about SE would worry me if I was a backer:
Click to expand...

That's pretty common knowledge - hence he did not run since and was freshened up. Definitely strikes me as the type of horse that goes well when hard fit first time out. I would be more worried if they thought that was as good as he was.
 
The official handicapper rates Sizing 2lbs superior to Captain Cee Bee-Harry thinks it should be 20lbs.We find out next Tuesday.
 
I didn't think he was anywhere near fully wound up at Leopardstown Hamm. I'd be agreeing with Gal on this. Comments are positive if anything, as long as he is ready to roll on Tuesday
 
Galileo said:
That's pretty common knowledge - hence he did not run since and was freshened up. Definitely strikes me as the type of horse that goes well when hard fit first time out. I would be more worried if they thought that was as good as he was.
Click to expand...

Even the physio and chiropractor part? I never saw that.
 
To be honest physio and chiropractor are more and more common for these type of horses - particularly one that has had problems in the past. I am sure Kauto Star has had a physio check him over during the season.
 
granger said:
I didn't think he was anywhere near fully wound up at Leopardstown Hamm. I'd be agreeing with Gal on this. Comments are positive if anything, as long as he is ready to roll on Tuesday
Click to expand...

I'm unsure - i would be worried whatever was hurting him before or causing him to not finish his races could have returned. Hearing a chiropractor has been down wouldn't fill me with glee.

I was very against this horse earlier in the season, but at least his price factors in elements of doubt re finishing his race. Captain Cee Bee is priced like a near good thing - he's not a good jumper, and 9 year olds generally don't win an Arkle. Added to that I expect he'll be off the bridle a long way from home and I think he's the worst value favourite of the week.
 
Captain Cee Bee (IRE) 9.g
Fosters Cross (IRE) 8.g
I'm Delilah 8.m
Kangaroo Court (IRE) 6.g
Leo's Lucky Star (USA) 8.g
Mad Max (IRE) 8.g
Nicanor (FR) 9.g
Nomecheki (FR) 8.g
Osana (FR) 8.g
Quiscover Fontaine (FR) 6.g
Riverside Theatre 6.g
Shakervilz (FR) 7.g
Shoreacres (IRE) 7.g
Sizing Europe (IRE) 8.g
Somersby (IRE) 6.g
Sports Line (IRE) 7.g
Woolcombe Folly (IRE) 7.g
 
Galileo said:
To be honest physio and chiropractor are more and more common for these type of horses - particularly one that has had problems in the past. I am sure Kauto Star has had a physio check him over during the season.
Click to expand...

Did you hear this? Apart from a routine check all horses would get, i wouldn't see why.

The worry for SE supporters is what happened (& continued to happen after) his Champion Hurdle run. My only point is I would be worried to hear he has been visited by a chiropractor (& physio).
 
Back
Top