Novice Chasers 2009/10

Hamm said:
I'm thinking along similar lines and think Mad Max is well worth an interest.
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Mad Max wouldn't be in the first three Nicky Henderson horses on my list; thought he was pretty laboured in beating a notoriously weak finisher at Kempton and he's virtually guaranteed to go in his wind again at some time.
 
Hamm said:
Did they not have an operation to sort that out?

Which 3 would you have ahead of him?
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Wind ops are frequently partially successful, but rarely correct a problem permanently. Plenty of horses have more than one, for example.

In terms of which Henderson horses I'd have in front of him, the point was used to demonstrate that he isn't at the top of the pecking order at Seven Barrows IMO, and I'd have him down as extremely unlikely to achieve what he looked like he might a year ago. Riverside Theatre would be my clear choice but Long Run, Punchestowns, French Opera and even Dave's Dream would have arguably stronger claims if they were sent that route.

I'm aware that Henderson won't be sending more than two to the race, if that, and I'm not suggesting that any of those I mention would be worth an interest, but they illustrate my opinion.
 
Galileo said:
Ruby will be riding the Mullins horse over Take The Breeze in the Arkle on Sunday.
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Is there a case of Ruby choosing the Mullins horse over the Nicholls horse to keep the ride from Townend in the future moreso than on merit of him being the likeliest winner?

For instance if Ruby chose to ride Take The Breeze and Sports Line beat him, there'd be a strong case for Townend to keep the ride going forward. However if Take The Breeze beats Sports Line on Sunday, Ruby's not going to lose the ride on the horse the next day.

I could be stating the obvious here but i just wonder how much is down to the horses respective merits and Ruby covering all angles.
 
I'd imagine Ruby wouldn't look much past this race. Even if he lost the ride on an impressively winning Sports Line, he'd be sure to be on something decent come March.
 
Think that price is about right. Can't see him getting competetive at his age in the RSA. I would love to be wrong but there will be plenty of younger horses who have too much zip for the old boy.
 
Easy win for Mighty Man.

I see your point but he gave Big Bucks a good race at Aintree on his last start over hurdles. I think he would be competitive.
 
Aintree much more Mighty Man's kind of track imo, Hamm. Alongside all the other possible negatives, I'm not convinced he can run to his very best at Cheltenham. I personally couldn't have him for the RSA Chase.
 
Do you not think 5/6 the place is value? He'll almost certainly run his race, and in such an attritional race as the RSA, this is the first part of the equation. Don't disagree with you about Aintree and clearly it would be a surprise of sorts were he to win.
 
I couldn't be betting odds-on a place about a 10yo in the RSA - not in such a competitive field, and on a track which historically hasn't played entirely to his strengths.

The race is too hot to be taking a punt on Mighty Man, imo.
 
Can't have it that Mighty Man isn't just about as good at Cheltenham. Placed in 2 World Hurdles and would have given Inglis Drever even more to think about but for a poor ride from Johnson.

Haven't seen recent quotes but I read at one stage this season that Daly was running him over fences pre-spring because it was easier to find easy races for him before going back over hurdles with the Grade 1 at Aintree his main aim.
 
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davidjohnson said:
Can't have it that Mighty Man isn't just about as good at Cheltenham. Placed in 2 World Hurdles and would have given Inglis Drever even more to think about but for a poor ride from Johnston.
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I wouldn't necessarily dispute that, DJ, but for my money, Aintree suits him better - albeit by only a handful of lbs. Besides, the track is not my main issue regarding his chances - it is more to do with his age, and the apparent strength of the race - where a 'handful of lbs' will be the difference between placing and finishing 7th.

For me, the RSA Chase is possibly more competitive than the Arkle.
 
I'm not sure Kasbah Bliss was put in his place as such. He's won a Group 3 race on the Flat this year and also been placed in a Group 1 over 10f. For some reason, possibly a lack of stamina, I don;t think Kasbah Bliss was at his best last year.

Would be great to see Big Bucks give him a rematch. It might be Big Buck's best chance of ever winning a Gold Cup, in one at Ascot where there are no obstacles in his way.
 
I would be surprised if Mighty Man were to place in the SunAlliance Chase. Have not been impressed with him over fences and does not have the profile of a novice chase winner at Cheltenham.
 
Hamm said:
Do you not think 5/6 the place is value? He'll almost certainly run his race, and in such an attritional race as the RSA, this is the first part of the equation. Don't disagree with you about Aintree and clearly it would be a surprise of sorts were he to win.
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Hes 9.6 on betfair to place. Bit of value
 
Grasshopper,
Sorry, I meant to say 5 or 6 to 1 to place was great value - of course not 5/6!

If you take an objective view of the race and look at those ahead of him in the market

Punchestowns - bizarre he is favourite - only run once over fences where all he proved is he still has 4 legs.

Long Run - impressive in the Feltham. Not a confirmed runner.

Diamond Harry - impressive chasing debut. I think he'll fade at the business end, and this won't be down to the jockey.

Weapon's amnesty/Pandorama - impressive at Leopardstown and much more likely to appreciate track and likely ground at Cheltenham than Pandorama, who i don't rate.

I don't think Benselam is the horse people thought he might be.

Weird Al i find hard to weigh up, due to early season form often being a little questionable (not a great argument of course).

Mighty Man - 2 bloodless victories over fences, and has jumped well and quick. His return last year (1 real run when you consider his Cheltenham run was essentially a prep) at Aintree had him running to a very similar level of form as before his injury. Nothing that has happened since has shown the injury has affected his form.

Now, I am not suggesting he should be favourite but he is 50 on BF to win and as Littlelad says, 9.6 to place. This is more than twice as big as I think he should be in each market, and there is nothing to suggest he won't run to around 160 or thereabouts, which should be right in the mix for a place.
 
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Not sure what is bizarre about the 170 hurdler that is a proven stayer that has the looks to be just as good over fences being favourite.
 
How has he looked to be just as good over fences?

The exact same could be said of Mighty Man.
 
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