Novice Chasers 2009/10

I've just been watching the Arkle contenders again (busy day!) and one thing is for sure - nothing has jumped better this season than Somersby. Watching him jump at Sandown was fantastic, and I remember seeing him in the parade ring and thinking he was carrying quite a bit of condition. He doesn't seem to have any negatives against him either.
 
Somersby was my ante post each way choice for the Arkle, and I'm happy enough to leave the race at that.

I'm hoping that jumping won't be a problem for him. I do have some reservations about the form of his Henry VIII win, but if he can at least grab a place that will more than do for me.
 
SunAlliance Chase -

Bensalem (IRE)
Burton Port (IRE)
Chasing Cars (IRE)
Citizen Vic (IRE)
Diamond Harry (GB)
Flight Leader (IRE)
Hey Big Spender (IRE)
Knockara Beau (IRE)
Lenabane (IRE)
Little Josh (IRE)
Ogee (GB)
Punchestowns (FR)
Shakervilz (FR)
The Nightingale (FR)
Weapon's Amnesty (IRE)
Weird Al (IRE)
Long Run (FR)
 
Hamm said:
He doesn't seem to have any negatives against him either.
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Have a look at how Hen Knight's novices have been ridden in Championship races at Cheltenham if you want to find a possible negative about Somersby's chance. She doesn't like them being involved in the hurly burly and I believe instructs whoever rides to keep them wide and out of trouble. That's fine if you want to look after your horse, but not great if you actually want to win the race. It's occurred to me that she's had several placed horses in Cheltenham races which have had to get going late and wide in order to get involved (Best Mate in the Supreme, Racing Demon in the SA Hurdle and Somersby in last year's Supreme). I may be barking up the wrong tree, but it puts me of Somersby even though I think he's the best horse in the race. Am I mental, or has anyone else noticed this?
 
rorydelargy said:
Have a look at how Hen Knight's novices have been ridden in Championship races at Cheltenham if you want to find a possible negative about Somersby's chance. She doesn't like them being involved in the hurly burly and I believe instructs whoever rides to keep them wide and out of trouble. That's fine if you want to look after your horse, but not great if you actually want to win the race. It's occurred to me that she's had several placed horses in Cheltenham races which have had to get going late and wide in order to get involved (Best Mate in the Supreme, Racing Demon in the SA Hurdle and Somersby in last year's Supreme). I may be barking up the wrong tree, but it puts me of Somersby even though I think he's the best horse in the race. Am I mental, or has anyone else noticed this?
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Interesting view Rory. Perhaps with one, or even two, you could say it's mere coincidence, but all 3 does seem a lot.

On another Somersby related point, Tom Segal wrote in the Weekender he wasn't including Somersby in his shortlist as he thinks he's a 3 miler. Now, he may well stay further next season, but the Sandown race (& the the test of jumping at pace it provides) could not have been won by a 3 miler - also, the time of that race was faster than Twist Magic's Tingle Creek, iirc. I like reading his opinion pieces but would very much disagree with him on this one.
 
Hamm said:
On another Somersby related point, Tom Segal wrote in the Weekender he wasn't including Somersby in his shortlist as he thinks he's a 3 miler. Now, he may well stay further next season, but the Sandown race (& the the test of jumping at pace it provides) could not have been won by a 3 miler
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Not even Long Run?
 
Forgot about him! (for once)

I guess I was thinking more of a typical 3 miler, more a traditional staying type.
 
The Punchestown v Long Run form looks likely to be tested at Sandown tomorrow with Tchico Polos taking on King Edmund and Joe Jo Star in the 2m novice chase. Joe Jo Star is fit and well, and if he jumps like he did at Warwick I'd be hopeful that he could give Tchico Polos a real scare. Hopefully he and King Edmund will take each other on and if that's the case, Joe Jo will be suited by sitting off them.
 
I don't think we saw the real Tchico Polos in the Feltham - it was possibly one of the worst rides of ruby's life going so fast on a doubtful stayer.
 
Wouldn't right off King Edmund - was always going to be a much better chaser than a hurdler (ran The Betchworth Kid close earlier in the season - possibly would have won but for a mistake at the last) and won a decent enough novice chase on his fencing debut.
 
rorydelargy said:
...it puts me of Somersby even though I think he's the best horse in the race. Am I mental, or has anyone else noticed this?
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:lol: Totally barking rory... I agree that Hen is very protective, but if you think Thornton will nurse him round in the Arkle I'm worried for you. ;) Don't back him for any number of reasons... but not because they'll be looking after him here!!!
 
Hamm said:
On another Somersby related point, Tom Segal wrote in the Weekender he wasn't including Somersby in his shortlist as he thinks he's a 3 miler. Now, he may well stay further next season, but the Sandown race (& the the test of jumping at pace it provides) could not have been won by a 3 miler - also, the time of that race was faster than Twist Magic's Tingle Creek, iirc. I like reading his opinion pieces but would very much disagree with him on this one.
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You'd be right to... Those who think Somersby can't win this should remember he was quick enough to be placed in the Supreme Novices.
 
'Expected to win'

Does the trainer/camp have an inside line on all others horses then?
 
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