Novice Chasers 2011-12

It was indeed, BTB - by 1.61 secs, which means they went 2.57s slower in the CH to 3 out. As I said earlier, it would appear Overturn didn't set a strong enough pace.
 
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Hamm said:
This is the opposite of how I see it - a fast run race increases the chance the best horse will win a race, and the slower the pace, the higher the chance of a surprise result.
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I agree with that Hamm but its not the same as the point I was making.
 
I am a huge fan of Peddlers Cross and have been for a long time now. I backed him when he won the Neptune and was all set to see him chasing the following year. Connections decided to take the Champion Hurdle route and were vindicated after he found only the exceptional Hurricane Fly too good, with a fair gap back to the rest.

He has proven himself top class over hurdles, and would have been a Champion Hurdler in many years, and yet he has always been the type to make up into a better chaser. The very fact that McCain has spurned some seemingly easy pickings in the 2m Hurdle division (he'd have been an odds on chance for the Fighting Fifth and the International for example) tells you all you need to know.

He has pace, he stays really well, he jumps really well and at pace too (Bangor win was "sensationally fast" - Nick Mordin), he is tactically versatile, he settles, he's a straightforward ride and so on. To my eye he has it all and I would be confident of him coming out on top in March. I am on at 9/1 and will be 'investing' a few more pennies before the big day. I really think the sky is the limit for him.
 
BHA Handicapper’s view:

“Ruby Walsh had taken the earlier Grade 1, the newly-promoted Henry VIII Novices Chase, on the 4-11 favourite Al Ferof. Running to 153, similar to the mark he posted on his impressive Cheltenham chase debut, the classy grey momentarily looked vulnerable as For Non Stop (151) loomed up after the last.
Thankfully forhis supporters, he pulled out a bit extra close home. More will be needed if he is to upset Arkle favourite Peddlers Cross (160+) at Cheltenham in March”.
 
reet hard said:
It was indeed, BTB - by 1.61 secs, which means they went 2.57s slower in the CH to 3 out. As I said earlier, it would appear Overturn didn't set a strong enough pace.
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reet, how do you interpret these times? Both the overall time and the sectional from 3 out?

I confess I genuinely wouldn't know where to start, beyond a very rudimentary analysis - and even then there could be fundamental errors in my application of the data.
 
Grasshopper said:
reet, how do you interpret these times? Both the overall time and the sectional from 3 out?

I confess I genuinely wouldn't know where to start, beyond a very rudimentary analysis - and even then there could be fundamental errors in my application of the data.
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Grassy
From the limited information available, neither race was run at a breakneck pace early (assuming 3 out to be 1/2 a mile from home, the last quarter was probably the quickest, in both cases). The Arkle was run (relatively) almost a second quicker, according to RP standards.
The sectional from 3 out isn't too revealing either, as the 1 sec. gain in the CH could be almost wholly attributed to the class gulf, without any consideration of the slower pace early. For any detailed analysis, you'd need furlong-by-furlong sectionals, and for each horse.
What Links' sectionals do tell us though is, despite being strongly ridden from quite a way out, PC ran the last half mile not much quicker than the novices.
Nothing in the above changes my view that speed will be his Achiiles Heel in the Arkle - if he has one.:D
 
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Every horse has a stamina limit, either way the final time will always be a result of a horse using his energy the most efficiently so why would you want to start comparing the two races together like you're going to find anything exceptional in there that no one else could have found.

I really dont understand the point of this exercise.
 
In regards to stamina, I was reffering to how long a horse can sustain his highest point of energy excertion for not the longest distance a horse can run for which in truth, 8 out of every 10 horses could probably run 4 miles if they were conditioned to at home - to a reasonable standard.

Unless you've seen Peddlers Cross physically, had jockey feedback and what he's done at home you can't put a marker on his distance limits.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
In regards to stamina, I was reffering to how long a horse can sustain his highest point of energy excertion for not the longest distance a horse can run for which in truth, 8 out of every 10 horses could probably run 4 miles if they were conditioned to at home - to a reasonable standard.

Unless you've seen Peddlers Cross physically, had jockey feedback and what he's done at home you can't put a marker on his distance limits.
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Mmmm! Trainers and jockeys would rarely know a horse's limit until he's reached it on a racecourse, and it's a fair bet that PC's is still unknown.
Doesn't follow that gauging pace and time aren't useful tools though, to them and the punter.
 
reet hard said:
Mmmm! Trainers and jockeys would rarely know a horse's limit until he's reached it on a racecourse, and it's a fair bet that PC's is still unknown.
Doesn't follow that gauging pace and time aren't useful tools though, to them and the punter.
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Not for or against Peddlers for the Arkle just yet although ultimately I don't think he will win it. Reckon Henderson has this one covered this year. But PC did reach his limit in the CH last year, I think he ran to his absolute maximum in terms of speed and stamina. Not sure if that hasn't left a mark?
 
trefflich said:
Not for or against Peddlers for the Arkle just yet although ultimately I don't think he will win it. Reckon Henderson has this one covered this year...
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I tend to keep a blue-print horse in my head as a sort of template for certain races (not necessarily the best horse in the world but one that’s suited). The one I’ve got for the Arkle is Remittance Man. When a horse starts to remind me of him I start to take notice. I’m not sure I’ve seen one yet who reminds me totally of him. If there is one it could be Sprinter Sacre, but I need to see more of him (seems the type who should take very well to fences). Peddler’s is hugely talented in his own way though.
 
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SteveM said:
If there is one it could be Sprinter Sacre, but I need to see more of him. Peddler’s is hugely talented in his own way though.
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Agreed, PC is a top horse and I think this could be Henderson's best prospective 2m chaser. Here's hoping we see him soon.
 
Sam Winner getting 12lbs from Solix today. Has to be winning this if going to be doing anything worthwhile in March. Anyone any opinions?
 
I agree with you, hezz. That's a lot of weight. I think there's considerable room for improvement with Solix and Sam Winner in the jumping department. The latter definitely needs the step up in trip to my eye.

Not a race I'd want to have a bet in, these small field novice chases never are.
 
Same Katherine, I like Sam Winner but will let him take his chance at the price.

Watching brief for certain.
 
Solix looks to be something quite promising, he just needs to jump better - when you consider how, for me, his jumping was barely adequate, he really did well to win as he did.
 
Is running at Doncaster first time out a negative for Hendersons in the next.I have a theory about trainers sending novice chasers and hurdlers to Donny d
for a soft race-usually when they have difficulty winning elsewhere.
 
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