Novice Chasers 2011-12

I hope many more think like you Grasshopper, for all that they won't write in such an eoloquent way, and I get bigger odds on Al Ferof, and Sprinter Sacre, who I waill wait and watch first (hopefully this week).
 
One favourite has won in the past 15 runnings:

Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2011 Captain Chris 7 P Hobbs 6/1
2010 Sizing Europe 8 H De Bromhead 6/1
2009 Forpadydeplasterer 7 T Cooper 8/1
2008 Tidal Bay 7 J Howard Johnson 6/1
2007 My Way de Solzen 7 A King 7/2
2006 Voy Por Ustedes 5 A King 15/2
2005 Contraband 7 M C Pipe 7/1
2004 Well Chief 5 M C Pipe 9/1
2003 Azertyuiop 6 P F Nicholls 5/4F
2002 Moscow Flyer 8 Mrs J Harrington 11/2
2000 Tiutchev 7 N J Henderson 8/1
1999 Flagship Uberalles 4 P F Nicholls 11/1
1998 Champleve 5 M C Pipe 13/2
1997 Or Royal 6 M C Pipe 11/2
1996 Ventana Canyon 5 E J O'Grady 7/1
 
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Grasshopper said:
I honestly think 7/2 Peddlers Cross is fair enough, to be honest.

A certain amount of progression is probably factored into his price, I'd concede, but he has not put a foot wrong over fences, and of all the hurdlers going chasing, he is the most obvious one for the bookies to want to duck.

Some people are, imo, too quick to dismiss Peddlers' hurdle form as irrelevant when it comes to novice chases. Whilst that may be true to an extent, it's fair to say that most novice chasers near the top end of the scale probably run to within +/- 5lbs of their hurdles rating, when sent over fences. Even if Peddlers Cross is anchored near the bottom-end of that scale, he'd still be the one to beat for me.

I'm a believer when it comes to Peddlers Cross, and I've no emotional tie to him, having under-rated him almost all the way through his career. Quibbles about the tracks and opposition aside, in every other aspect of his character, he looks a tremendous Arkle prospect, and I personally think he is as good a thing as you are likely to get in a race like this.

I'm on at 6/1 (evidence that I still missed the boat a bit on him), and therefore have no interest at 7/2. But I do reckon we could see him going off shorter on the day. For me, he remains thoroughly unexposed over fences, and has already run to a level of form that would entitle him to take his chance in the Arkle. A win at Haydock would see his price contract further, and if he went into the Arkle undefeated, I think he would be a steamer on the day; him being a very obvious choice as a shortie, given his potential for further progression and track record.

There's a few if's in my theory :whistle: but I can honestly see him starting a 2/1 shot on the day, and all he needs to do is win at Haydock to make it so. And even if he's turned over, I can't see him drifting out to anything bigger than 5/1........and I'd still expect to see him backed to near favouritism from there. I actually think 7/2 is a traders price, and wouldn't really discourage anyone if they wanted to take a piece of it.
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4/1 is available and is being taken. The 5/1 was smashed into last week. You have to respect it when punters think a price is too big.
 
SlimChance said:
4/1 is available and is being taken. The 5/1 was smashed into last week. You have to respect it when punters think a price is too big.
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What about the punters who backed favourites in 14 of the last 15 Arkles - were they not as clever as the ones backing the machine? :confused:
 
...Peddler's may not be the favourite though, which would make him an even bigger certainty according to this.:)
 
SteveM said:
Difficult to say how good Bog Warrior is, but he looks at least very decent. RSA chance?... i.e. does he need it soft?
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Seems to be the opinion. I wouldn't take the 6-1 (or was it 8?) some are offering. The horse is more interesting on the other side of the Irish Sea for me.
Still a very nice horse, though, and clearly loves his jumping. One to keep an eye on in conditions like those he faced on Sunday.

I think at this stage, I'm still a Grands Crus girl, though I liked Bobs Worth too. If those two face each other on Boxing Day, that'll be a good race.
 
Katharine said:
Seems to be the opinion. I wouldn't take the 6-1 (or was it 8?) some are offering. The horse is more interesting on the other side of the Irish Sea for me.
Still a very nice horse, though, and clearly loves his jumping. One to keep an eye on in conditions like those he faced on Sunday.

I think at this stage, I'm still a Grands Crus girl, though I liked Bobs Worth too. If those two face each other on Boxing Day, that'll be a good race.
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Thanks Kath. That's pretty much how I see it.
 
SteveM said:
...Peddler's may not be the favourite though, which would make him an even bigger certainty according to this.:)
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Peddlers will be favourite as he'll win on the bridle in his race(s) to come, and hence will only get smaller in price.

Thank god. Last year we had Cue Card, the year before Dunguib, this year, I need a horse to make a market for me!
 
Hamm said:
What about the punters who backed favourites in 14 of the last 15 Arkles - were they not as clever as the ones backing the machine? :confused:
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You have to take every race on it's own merits. It's certainly not a good enough reason to take Peddlers Cross on.
 
Katharine said:
Seems to be the opinion. I wouldn't take the 6-1 (or was it 8?) some are offering. The horse is more interesting on the other side of the Irish Sea for me.
Still a very nice horse, though, and clearly loves his jumping. One to keep an eye on in conditions like those he faced on Sunday.

I think at this stage, I'm still a Grands Crus girl, though I liked Bobs Worth too. If those two face each other on Boxing Day, that'll be a good race.
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I'd say its unlikely BW will run at Cheltenham, but we will see. He is clearly adaptable trip wise and doesn't have jump a fence
 
Hamm said:
Peddlers will be favourite as he'll win on the bridle in his race(s) to come, and hence will only get smaller in price.

Thank god. Last year we had Cue Card, the year before Dunguib, this year, I need a horse to make a market for me!
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There was nothing wrong with the price Dunguib and Cue Card were sent off. They both had by far the best form going into their races.
 
Hamm said:
What about the punters who backed favourites in 14 of the last 15 Arkles - were they not as clever as the ones backing the machine? :confused:
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I think you're bang-on with your stats, Hamm - a heavily-backed winning jolly is long overdue. :D
 
granger said:
I'd say its unlikely BW will run at Cheltenham, but we will see. He is clearly adaptable trip wise and doesn't have jump a fence
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Yes, Tony Martin suggested as much.

I wouldn't want a repeat of Pandorama if they feel that way about the horse.
 
SlimChance said:
There was nothing wrong with the price Dunguib and Cue Card were sent off. They both had by far the best form going into their races.
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Not at those prices. I said so strongly on here, and laughed at the prices people were backing them at. For the record, I wouldn't put PC in anywhere near their bracket, but I felt people had screws loose backing the two of them, and Cousin Vinny 3 years running in the Supreme.
 
Bit of a difference between a novice hurdler (and right they should often be taken on) and a near champion hurdler whos taken well to fences though. Im with slim in not being bothered about past betting trends but one thing the arkle stat does throw up, is that its rarely a surprise winner
 
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