Novice Chasers 2011-12

clivex said:
Bit of a difference between a novice hurdler (and right they should often be taken on) and a near champion hurdler whos taken well to fences though. Im with slim in not being bothered about past betting trends but one thing the arkle stat does throw up, is that its rarely a surprise winner
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Even if the novice ran quicker over the same course and distance little more than an hour earlier?
 
Im lost.... ??

But is everyone dismissing For non stop a little too readily? Every chance Al Ferof beat a horse being underrated as an up and coming chaser here. Always looked more of a chaser and wasnt that where expectations lay with this one?
 
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RP standard time - Arkle Course 2m = 3m 52secs
RP standard time - Champion Hurdle course adj to 2m = 3m 44s

Same track,same day,same distance, same ground - one race run (on average) 8 secs slower than the other - go figure which pace is more likely to suit which type of horse.
 
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granger said:
Must say that I thought favourites would have a better record in the Arkle
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The fancied ones (although not necessarily the outright favourite) usually take it though... single digits 8/1 or less is a pretty good rule of thumb. But it's generally the rule with novices (where form at the discipline is scant)... it's a little more open to a dark(ish) horse taking it.
 
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Hamm said:
Even if the novice ran quicker over the same course and distance little more than an hour earlier?
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As I said before, there are so many parts that go into creating a record breaking time. It's not all about ability, but about pace through the race. The same horse could run in two races over 2 miles and not clock the same time, as the pace would be different in both. You cannot simply compare times. It is a useful tool, but should not be looked at in isolation. You should know that.
 
He does know that, I am sure.

But it is still a useful tool. Just because times aren't the solution to all life's problems, doesn't mean they can't be used. Last year's novice race was a fast race. It means horses that ran well in it are likely to go well again in another fast race.
 
Bar the Bull said:
But it is still a useful tool. Just because times aren't the solution to all life's problems, doesn't mean they can't be used. Last year's novice race was a fast race. It means horses that ran well in it are likely to go well again in another fast race.
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I'd agree with you there but a fast run race does not always produce a fast time either if they are on the go from the outset compared to a race where they run a more even time. How much would you consider time? It's a big thing in the point to points "fastest time of the day" but I wouldn't place too much emphasis on it. 20%?
 
Bar the Bull said:
He does know that, I am sure.

But it is still a useful tool. Just because times aren't the solution to all life's problems, doesn't mean they can't be used. Last year's novice race was a fast race. It means horses that ran well in it are likely to go well again in another fast race.
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Exactly...
 
Per Colin Phillips piece the BHA handicapper has Al Ferof at 153 and Peddlers Cross off 160+. I'd probably have them a little closer maybe 2lbs or so. Al Ferof obviously was re-assessed after his Supreme win to 154 over hurdles so probably has some some scope to better that mark over fences. Still leaves him with a bit to find with Peddlers who finished with a mark of 170 albeit having two seasons over hurdles in which to achieve that mark. The question of whether Peddlers would have won a Supreme in his novice year as Al Ferof did is one that probably leaves less between the two as some including myself would like to believe.
 
...Almost irrespective of how quick Al Ferof is though, Peddler's looks to have the greater scope as a chaser to me, which would stretch the difference in Peddler's favour.
 
Hamm said:
Exactly...
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Doesn;t the fact that Peddlers ran so well in a slower run race against the best hurdlers around show he has more than enough pace for an Arkle? Al Ferof the opposite?

If the supreme had been run in the same time as the CH i'd be willing to bet Al Ferof would not have won it.
 
Aragorn said:
Doesn;t the fact that Peddlers ran so well in a slower run race against the best hurdlers around show he has more than enough pace for an Arkle? Al Ferof the opposite?

If the supreme had been run in the same time as the CH i'd be willing to bet Al Ferof would not have won it.
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This is the opposite of how I see it - a fast run race increases the chance the best horse will win a race, and the slower the pace, the higher the chance of a surprise result.
 
Hamm said:
This is the opposite of how I see it - a fast run race increases the chance the best horse will win a race, and the slower the pace, the higher the chance of a surprise result.
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A faster pace increases the chances of the strongest stayers, rather than "the best horse in the race" winning, surely?
 
Wonderful debate.
I agree with much of the above and from both sides of the argument.My own angle is that a class horse wins the Arkle,something that travels well and won't be taken off his feet.Just by looking at the past 10 years will tell anyone this.My opinion is that the winner will come out of the first few in the market...again.I have backed peddlers ante post and continue to back him at 4's.Al ferof has shown the better jumping (cheltenham round) for me at the moment but potentially PC has more scope.My opinion is that anything that get's as near to "Hurricane Freak" as he did in CH will take world of beating.The real answer is we don't know as PC is running at weaker tracks,in supposedly weaker races.Something that I thought of Al ferof in his novice hurdling season.
Position- Balls deep in PC.would like to see him run at Christmas at Haydock.
 
The Champion Hurdle probably wasn't run as quickly as Overturn didn't set a solid enough gallop early - which resulted in Peddlers Cross having to force the pace from quite a way out. Those who think PC has speed to burn might ask themselves why his jockey felt that necessary?
 
links781 said:
My own angle is that a class horse wins the Arkle,something that travels well and won't be taken off his feet
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Assuming this is the case look no further than Peddler's Cross. He's one of the classiest young chasers I've seen and you just can't run like he did in the Champion Hurdle and be taken off your feet as a novice chaser.
 
reet hard said:
The Champion Hurdle probably wasn't run as quickly as Overturn didn't set a solid enough gallop early - which resulted in Peddlers Cross having to force the pace from quite a way out. Those who think PC has speed to burn might ask themselves why his jockey felt that necessary?
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In my view, this was a tactical decision to try and run the finish out of Hurricane Fly, reet. I don't think there's any more to it than that.

Anyone got the comparative times for the CH and Supreme from the top of the hill? It might paint a slightly different picture.
 
I was as scientific as I could be.....stopwatch and re run video.

Supreme 3.57.16 secs race total
Champion 3.53.08 secs race total

From 3 out (to winning line) the comparative times were:
Supreme 56.54
Champion 55.58

From 2 out (to winning line)

Supreme 39.20
Champion 38.39
 
To be honest, Links, I've no idea why I even asked the question. I've no clue how to interpret these numbers! :lol:
 
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