Novice Chasers 2011-12

And he is an infintely better jumper. He is the archetypal 2 mile chaser, one we don't see that often, and McCain should recognise that. I thought Peddlers Cross didn't look a chaser next to him, and wondered whether they may go back for the Champion Hurdle, especially with big doubts about Hurricane Fly.
 
Why back Sprinter Sacre at 5/2 when Al Ferof has better chase form, better hurdling form, and is 7/1. Give me a horse that finds plenty as opposed to a flashy sort that does it all on the bridle for a race like the Arkle. A Captain Chris rather than a Finians Rainbow you could say.
 
Hamm said:
And he is an infintely better jumper. He is the archetypal 2 mile chaser, one we don't see that often, and McCain should recognise that. I thought Peddlers Cross didn't look a chaser next to him, and wondered whether they may go back for the Champion Hurdle, especially with big doubts about Hurricane Fly.
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Exactly as you saw it before the race - Can't see McCain going back over hurdles with PC though. The 2 and a half mile route may be the way to go. There are a couple of serious looking 3 mile novices in Grand Crus and Last Instalment.
 
davidjohnson said:
Why back Sprinter Sacre at 5/2 when Al Ferof has better chase form, better hurdling form, and is 7/1. Give me a horse that finds plenty as opposed to a flashy sort that does it all on the bridle for a race like the Arkle. A Captain Chris rather than a Finians Rainbow you could say.
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I have been advocating them both for months, since they were both 10s.

I also think Al Ferof's Henry VIII win was very impressive.
 
davidjohnson said:
Why back Sprinter Sacre at 5/2 when Al Ferof has better chase form, better hurdling form, and is 7/1. Give me a horse that finds plenty as opposed to a flashy sort that does it all on the bridle for a race like the Arkle. A Captain Chris rather than a Finians Rainbow you could say.
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I’d agree about Captain Chris vs Finians (just about), but with all due respect to his form Al Ferof wouldn’t get near Sprinter Sacre with a block and tackle. We don’t need the form book to tell us how good SS is. He isn’t flashy just brilliant. The best Arkle prospect I’ve seen in a long, long while of looking. Al Ferof, on the other hand, is simply entitled to line up compared with this one.
 
davidjohnson said:
Why back Sprinter Sacre at 5/2 when Al Ferof has better chase form, better hurdling form, and is 7/1. Give me a horse that finds plenty as opposed to a flashy sort that does it all on the bridle for a race like the Arkle. A Captain Chris rather than a Finians Rainbow you could say.
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Largely my take on things as well, David.

I imagine it's the visceral and visual impression given in his two wins so far which has taken Sprinter Sacre at least two points clear of Peddlers Cross, and four clear of Al Ferof, in most ante-post shows for the Arkle.

Whether that's predicated on enough besides those two victories may be another question entirely. I've not checked Timeform as yet, but certainly there's virtually nothing between them on their best chasing RPRs so far:

Sprinter Sacre 160
Peddlers Cross 159
Al Ferof 159

...and if I were in the Al Ferof camp I'd be taking the most comfort from the fact that his personal best chasing RPR was recorded at Cheltenham - and over the Arkle C&D in a strongly run race, at that - compared to the Kempton and Bangor over which the other two gained theirs.

Al Ferof's win in the Henry VIII at Sandown clearly wasn't by as stunning a margin as some victories in the division this term, but there was apparently too little cover for him that day - leading as soon as the Pond Fence was not by design - and the neck verdict over For Non Stop on the day flatters the runner-up to an extent.

The jumping of Sandown's back line of seven fences looked better than adequate to me, and has been the most revelatory factor of both chase starts, given his occasional clumsiness (and in the worst case scenarios, chewing of turf) in Points and over hurdles.

None of which should be taken to dismiss Sprinter Sacre lightly, and that Doncaster debut did leave a great impression on me. The Nicholls gelding just strikes me as having been campaigned the more bravely of the trio so far, however, and has done so early enough in the winter that connections can now keep him under wraps until March safe in the knowledge of what they've got - a genuine Arkle aspirant proven in some of the Arkle trials that bear closest topographical (as well as qualitative) similarity to the real thing.

At the current prices, I'd want Al Ferof over Sprinter Sacre, definitely.

Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)
 
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SteveM said:
This horse is everything you would wish to see for the Arkle.
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Except for the fact that he dribbled up the hill in the Supreme . . .

I just cannot get that out of my head and would not wanting to be taking 5/2 about him as a result. He beat nothing at Doncaster, albeit impressively, and I think he is hugely flattered by the Kempton result despite the fact that his performance on the day was right out of the top drawer. Everything went right for him round a speed track, which would not have suited his main rival, for whom pretty much everything went wrong.

I am not saying he can't win the Arkle but the way he came up the hill in the Supreme is a huge concern for me and more than enough to put me off him.

If you look at the last 5 winners of the race (Captain Chris, Sizing Europe, Forpadydeplasterer, Tidal Bay and My Way De Solzen) there is one thing that jumps out. It is not raw pace, it is not slick jumping, it is the ability to stay further than 2m. I agree entirely with you that Sprinter Sacre scores very highly indeed in many desirable attributes but in this apparently crucial ability he scores very lowly indeed (on current evidence at least).

The Supreme has a far greater emphasis on speed and yet he still didn't have the stamina to get himself home.

He is very fast and very free. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him running all over his field coming down the hill and one, maybe two, of the field running all over him back up it.
 
He stumbled over the last flight. The Supreme has feck all to do with this horse as a chaser. It's like going back in time and not fancying Denman for the RSA because he didn't win his novice hurdle.
 
Hard to envisage defeat for Sprinter Sacre unless there's a catastrophe. He should be able to burn them all off.

Only minor grumble is he's only raced in small fields over fences but that would be rendered irrelevant if he bounced off in front like the other day. His jumping looks exceptional but maybe another trainer could cynically look to run a pacemaker and see if that unsettled him.

I doubt it though. Machine.
 
Euronymous said:
He stumbled over the last flight. The Supreme has feck all to do with this horse as a chaser. It's like going back in time and not fancying Denman for the RSA because he didn't win his novice hurdle.
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He went from cantering to legless very quickly. I don't care whether it was over hurdles or fences I'd like to see him come up the hill far better before I was backing him for the Arkle.

I am prepared to give horses the benefit of the doubt (eg Hurricane Fly) if there is no evidence to say they won't come up the hill but when all the evidence says that he won't, I'd like to see something to the contrary before backing him, especially as Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross will be flying up it.

Of course hurdles form is important when assessing their chances. It is not the be all and end all and some will be far better over fences than hurdles and some the opposite but it still provides valuable evidence.
 
Bobbyjo said:
Hard to envisage defeat for Sprinter Sacre unless there's a catastrophe. He should be able to burn them all off.

Only minor grumble is he's only raced in small fields over fences but that would be rendered irrelevant if he bounced off in front like the other day. His jumping looks exceptional but maybe another trainer could cynically look to run a pacemaker and see if that unsettled him.

I doubt it though. Machine.
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Good to see you post again.
 
Zenyatta said:
He went from cantering to legless very quickly. I don't care whether it was over hurdles or fences I'd like to see him come up the hill far better before I was backing him for the Arkle.

I am prepared to give horses the benefit of the doubt (eg Hurricane Fly) if there is no evidence to say they won't come up the hill but when all the evidence says that he won't, I'd like to see something to the contrary before backing him, especially as Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross will be flying up it.
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He was hardly legless. If that were the case Cue Card and Recession Proof would both have done him.

I appreciate that AF and PC will be flying up the hill. But I anticipate that Sprinter's jumping would have given him such a buffer that it won't matter about Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross will be winging it in a different race.
 
Euronymous said:
But I anticipate that Sprinter's jumping would have given him such a buffer that it won't matter about Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross will be winging it in a different race.
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Now that might well be the case. However, I can't have him as being that much better than Peddlers Cross. I think Peddlers is perfectly capable of jumping well, perfectly capable of travelling in the Arkle, perfectly capable of quickening when the pace does, and perfectly capable of coming up the hill. If Sprinter Sacre can do those things better then fair play but I wouldn't bet on it.
 
Krizon's post on the length of their strides is key - Sprinter Sacre made Peddlers Cross look wrong for chasing.
 
Thanks for noticing, Hamm! Thing is, PC's great for a sharp track or where the fences come up in a quick row - you could imagine him zipping round Fontwell's figure-eight while SS might need to go a bit wide to accommodate his stride, and if there is a blunder, a sharp-actioned horse like PC can often find a foot a bit more readily. The snag with PC is that he doesn't have a seriously long take-off if it's needed. SS would be able to soar - just like KAUTO did - a full stride 'wrong' and clear a jump with ease. PC would have to fiddle one in, which, as we all know, chops time off as the horse is having to brake a bit to accommodate the shortie. PC can go fast, yes, of course he can. But it's with more clipped strides than SS, who can also go fast - with longer ones.

I don't know what to make about a duel uphill - other than if SS had been lobbing along with his ground-devouring stride, I'd put him enough ahead of PC to keep his nose in front. That's allowing for their jumping skill, and liking for the going, etc. being equal.

Very interesting discussion, anyway!
 
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Wouldn't disagree with any of that Krizon, except for the fact that I don't think Peddlers is suited by a tight track at all. He has shown all his best form on stiff galloping tracks (like Cheltenham) which brings his stamina into play, regardless of his physical make-up.

I have just watched the race again and it is impossible not to be really taken with Sprinter Sacre. He looks very good indeed. If I was on at 7/1 then I'd be delighted. I'm not so would I back him at 5/2? Absolutely not.

The way he came up the hill in the Supreme is a massive concern for me. He might have strengthened and cope better this time around and I'll gladly accept that I'm wrong if he does. However, he lost at least 7 lengths from the last to the finish line with Al Ferof which simply must be a worry. If anything can stay with him until the bottom of the hill, and it is perfectly plausible to think that nothing will be able to, then I think there is at least reasonable doubt about what he will find. I bet AP couldn't believe he didn't win the Supreme and that is the worry for me.

Don't get me wrong in every other department he looks to hold all the aces but given the history of past winners it suggests that stamina for further is a key attribute and one that he looks to be lacking on current evidence.
 
It's a good old discussion, Zen - I don't at all dispute PEDDLERS handling good galloping tracks, not a bit, just think he'd be handier on tighter ones than SPRINTER, while SPRINTER will be able to max his stride on the less wiggly ones!

If all goes well, we're going to be in for some great battles in the Spring. Just as we're waving goodbye to some of the stalwarts who've lit up NH racing, it's lovely to think we may have some more top types on their way to savour for - let's hope - a good while to come. And to keep debating alive and well!
 
Sprinter Sacre was very exciting to watch and is the one to beat but in no way can Peddlers Cross have performed to his true ability otherwise we are saying he is not much better than Lightening Rod, personally I think DMc took it to heart too much in the aftermath and has finally taken sometime to think again.
 
Jakers said:
Sprinter Sacre was very exciting to watch and is the one to beat but in no way can Peddlers Cross have performed to his true ability otherwise we are saying he is not much better than Lightening Rod, personally I think DMc took it to heart too much in the aftermath and has finally taken sometime to think again.
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I also think that Peddlers didn't perform to his true ability. He clouted the first and never looked comfortable after that. The point is though that nothing we have seen to date from Peddlers Cross (and I'm a fan) is as good as what we have just witnessed from SS.
 
Euronymous said:
He stumbled over the last flight. The Supreme has feck all to do with this horse as a chaser. It's like going back in time and not fancying Denman for the RSA because he didn't win his novice hurdle.
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Wasn't the point being made about stamina, rather than jumping? In which case, it is relevant, and it's perfectly fair to have concerns about the horse, if you hold the position that he 'emptied' rather than simply 'lost momentum'.

I'm largely in the 'lost momentum' camp myself, but I don't think it's unreasonable for others to have a different interpretation, based on how Sprinter Sacre got home after the last in the Supreme.
 
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