links781
Journeyman
I think cc would give peddlers a race in the Jewson.....Pc not the same horse over fences,nowhere near.
Novice Chasers 2011-12
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Last years supreme form is going to have a big say IMne champion hurdle winner,Arkle winner and Arkle second and cue card placed at worst. ;-)
It's going to go down as a legendary renewal. It's a race I've watched on tape more than any other I think - and I didn't even have a bet in it.
Cheers, Links. When results and ratings begin to look evens-stevens, I do think you've got to look at the running and jumping styles which will give Horse A an advantage over Horse B, C, and D, given the correct distance and the right sort of going for them all. (Easy enough to chuck out those you know won't handle the ground, not so easy when it's not going against anyone appreciably.) The jockey is also going to be an additional feature and I don't rate Tizzard as good enough to maximize every possibility. I don't know if he's been schooling CUE CARD himself, but if he has, he hasn't schooled out his bad habit, which is essential to correct for the horse to not lose simply because of decelerating into his jumps.
SPRINTER SACRE's stride is longer than PEDDLER'S CROSS and he can absolutely turbo over some jumps accurately, with a fast getaway from the landing side.
PEDDLER'S CROSS jumps much better than CUE CARD
AL FEROF jumps much better than CUE CARD, jumps tidily and accurately like PEDDLER'S but not as boldly as SPRINTER.
All things being equal and in their favour, I have SPRINTER SACRE ahead on his strong, bold and (fingers crossed!) accurate jumping skill. As for galloping style, he has - as we've noted - a long, fluid action. Longer than PEDDLER'S, who has a brisker stride, and equal to AL FEROF in mobility and agility. It could all come down to the last hundred yards if all jump accurately - who can simply outspeed the other to the line - what a prospect!
SPRINTER SACRE's stride is longer than PEDDLER'S CROSS and he can absolutely turbo over some jumps accurately, with a fast getaway from the landing side.
PEDDLER'S CROSS jumps much better than CUE CARD
AL FEROF jumps much better than CUE CARD, jumps tidily and accurately like PEDDLER'S but not as boldly as SPRINTER.
All things being equal and in their favour, I have SPRINTER SACRE ahead on his strong, bold and (fingers crossed!) accurate jumping skill. As for galloping style, he has - as we've noted - a long, fluid action. Longer than PEDDLER'S, who has a brisker stride, and equal to AL FEROF in mobility and agility. It could all come down to the last hundred yards if all jump accurately - who can simply outspeed the other to the line - what a prospect!
links781
Journeyman
I was firmly in the Pc camp before spiriter sacre came out,just can't see it beaten the way it won last time.That said at the prices I would rather back Al Ferof value wise as there's never 5 points between them in the betting.The value call for me e/w bet to nothing.
I mentioned to Flame that I had an a/c with Sunderlands, and he very rudely burst out laughing and was amazed they were still going. Anyway, ancient is as ancient does - do you recommend I venture several squid on AL FEROF e/w, Links??
links781
Journeyman
Well I think it's the only one there that could trouble sprinter sacre other than peddlers(peddlers at his very best).I thought that al Ferof was very impressive at Cheltenham last time.my opinion is that sprinter sacre would turn over AF the majority of the time all things being equal.SS looks to have it all,athleticism,jumping,an engine and is fearless to standing off a fence(which ultimately could be his undoing).AF Nailed on each way for me.By the way who are Sunderlands!!!?
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On The Bridle
At the Start
Hamm is the man to ask Krizon, no disrespect to Links but Hamm has called the novices unbelievably accurately so far this season bar one little wobble in relation to Spirit River! I believe he would concur with a little ew on Al Ferof but if pressed will probably give you the exacta!
Zenyatta
At the Start
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- Nov 4, 2011
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- 587
Think it's far far too early to be saying this. He was massively disappointing at Kempton but had looked very good indeed at Bangor on both occasions. Nothing went right for him at Kempton and he was comprehensively outpointed by Sprinter Sacre in every department. However I cannot see how anybody can conclude that he is "not the same horse over fences, nowhere near" on the back of one disappointing showing, with valid excuses.
There is no way that the Kempton form is a true reflection of his ability and I find it surprising that he has been written off so quickly. It wouldn't surprise me if he bounced back to form at Cheltenham, provided McCain doesn't lose his bottle, in the Arkle.
You may be right but I think the horse is well worth another chance. If he comes out and jumps nicely once more before Cheltenham I would be confident of a good showing in the Arkle.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
SS and PC are more exposed over fences, especially now they've met but we could well be talking another Well Chief v Kicking King scenario here. KK lost nothing in defeat in their Arkle and went onto better things. We could well see a repeat.
On The Bridle
At the Start
Will McCain hold his nerve and go for the Arkle...... I hope so.
swedish chef
At the Start
"Tuesday was a funny day of highs and lows. Obviously we were very disappointed to see Peddlers Cross beaten at Kempton. Most importantly he has come home fine and in one piece. Although in hindsight we think we have been beaten by a very good horse, we still don't think that was the 'true' Peddlers' yesterday. Hopefully we will get to the bottom of it."
He already 'got to the bottom of it' after the race when his gut reaction was the horse needed further. Any subsequent view is an attempt to rationalise away the plainly evident (which quite a few are doing on here), or to ameliorate the owner.
Simon
At the Start
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- Dec 17, 2007
- Messages
- 1,314
I agree with that completely. It didn't look like a Peddlers performance at all. Whether he didn't like going that way round (only done it once before in a shockingly bad Morebattle at Kelso) or whether he didn't like the flat track (Aintree's flat and he ran badly there last year, although admittedly won the year before), or maybe he had an underlying niggle, I don't know, but I'd bet money on him not being at his best. I think he'll be back to his best for Cheltenham and he loves the track, and so I'll continue to bet on him in small amounts up until the race. 6/1 is a smashing price.
Zenyatta
At the Start
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- Nov 4, 2011
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- 587
I think McCain saying he needed further immediately after the race was an overreaction. He might not be as fast as Sprinter Sacre but he is most definitely fast enough for the Arkle.
I will be disappointed if McCain doesn't hold his nerve and go for the race.
I will be disappointed if McCain doesn't hold his nerve and go for the race.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I think he will, if only because the Jewson is still a bit of a second rate contest.
links781
Journeyman
Would be inclined to agree with that Euronymous,if I were the owner I would insist on the Arkle route.I've backed pc ante post and when I said earlier he was nowhere need as as good over fences,that was more through disappointment really.Nothing would please me more than them getting another good run into him before March.Weighing all things up at the moment I'm going for Sprinter to win Al Ferof And peddlers second and third respectively.Had a few quid each way AF today,just can't bring myself to back SS so short.Can't wait to see the three of them in the flesh come March.
On The Bridle
At the Start
Similar position to you links - love to see him running in the Arkle but difficult to see him turning it around with SS. Difficult but not impossible...
Which is exactly what I mean by rationalising away!
He was outjumped 3 times before they'd even turned a corner, has won on flat tracks such as Newbury, Haydock, Aintree and Bangor, subsequent scope and blood tests found nothing at all amiss and, all other considerations aside, was clearly outpaced from some way out in a race run at ordinary speed.
Allowing the Arkle will likely pose a greater test of both his pace and his jumping, it needs a massive leap of faith to even consider backing him, let alone deem his current price "smashing".
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...Peddler's may not be the favourite though, which would make him an even bigger certainty according to this.
...he can't lose now can he? :lol:
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prince regent
Conditional
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- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 588
heres two more stats for you Steve
not one winner in the last 15 years had won the neptune Hurdle (previously the RSA)
not one winner in the last 15 years had won the supreme hurdle
not one winner in the last 15 years had won the neptune Hurdle (previously the RSA)
not one winner in the last 15 years had won the supreme hurdle