Bar the Bull
At the Start
He said it was rubbish because you said McCain admitted there was no physical problem. McCain said there was a physical problem.
It was rubbish.
Novice Chasers 2011-12
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
He said it was rubbish because you said McCain admitted there was no physical problem. McCain said there was a physical problem.
It was rubbish.
Yes... 16 + the 5 that Zen reckons Peddlers will beat SS by = 21. i.e. a 21 length turnaround (and that's conservative given SS wasn't asked to beat anything).
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Okay Steve.
And the rest of my post?
And the rest of my post?
...quite right. Let's have no talk of anyone buggering off. This forum is more robust than others I wouldn't waste my time on and all of you make valued contributions.
Eh, I would have thought labelling someone abusive is personal so please don't start going down a route you have no time for.
Let me take a step back and put things into context - my intention was not in any way to be abusive to Zenyatta. I didn't appreciate having my points called rubbish, so responded with tit. Hardly a swear word or abusive. If it was interpreted as such, apologies. Ciao.
Are you incapable of reading anything I have posted? I know it's difficult but do try. I said I don't believe that, as he has given no details whatsoever. There is no proof there is something wrong with Peddlers Cross, hence my post can only be a point of view in terms of whether you take McCain at his word. I don't.
The rest of your post I agree with. I have said myself that it is possible Peddler's could win the Arkle precisely because Peddler's has less than this 21 lengths to find on best form. I still think it is far more likely that SS will win. But to claim Peddler's will win by five lengths is opinion rather than analysis. As Hamm said earlier it's a huge leap of faith (nothing more). And as I said to Zen I respect it as such as long as he doesn't try to justify or dress it up as analysis.
Zenyatta
At the Start
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This is going to take a while . . .
But please do tell me why it is as you say. All you do is say that is what you think. Why? What evidence? Etc? I have explained my own reasoning in great detail.
Absolutely but I would ammend the word 'criticism' with 'counter-argument'. I have received plenty of the former but disappointingly little of the latter. In fact all I have received is subjective statements saying I am 'wrong'. I would dearly love somebody to offer a detailed account of the opposing argument. It would be interesting to see how you were thinking.
I think this is far too low. It is easy to give Peddlers Cross a mark of 160 for his Bangor success and I am quite sure that Sprinter Sacre's Kempton effort was superior. The likes of Cue Card are on marks of 155 so I think having Sprinter Sacre 10lbs superior on 165 is perfectly plausible.
They are absolutely not. I supported Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle last year because I thought it ludicrous that he was being written off because of the fact that he had never seen the track. I am more than happy to give horses the benefit of the doubt.
In contrast, Sprinter Sacre has been to the track and he has proven that he did not get up the hill in the Supreme. Al Ferof gained around 10 lengths on him from the second last when Sprinter Sacre was still on the bridle.
I am not being sensitive at all. I am getting frustrated that nobody seems willing to put forward a convincing counter-argument. All I get in response is 'I don't agree' or 'this is wrong'. As I keep saying, I would very much like somebody to offer an argument with which to support the alternative viewpoint.
I might have yes! Amended accordingly!
Hamm, like it or not, the point you made was indisputably rubbish. It went in direct conflict with what the trainer had said. Calling me a 'tit' in response doesn't bother me but I would suggest that it doesn't reflect well on your good self.
I must admit that this would be a worry. He always strikes me as an intelligent horse and it might be that he 'remembers' that tough race at Cheltenham. It is a small risk but one I am prepared to take.
I think the Aintree run was definitely a mistake.
This will be the last time I promise. Please please pretty please do come up with an argument to support this assertion. I have made a detailed case for my viewpoint supported with evidence. You might disagree but that is neither here nor there because the argument and my thinking process is there for all to see.
This statement is exactly the thing that is frustrating. I can handle being called a 'tit' no problem, I don't mind you thinking I am 'upset' at all, but I do wish you would come up with and explain your argument rather than make generalised subjective remarks such as this.
For example, "I cannot accept that 21 length turnaround in form is based on any sort of analysis of the form of either of these horses" - I have done the analysis, I have shown you why it is possible. If you cannot accept it then do explain why.
I hadn't actually realised that I think Sprinter Sacre is more better (does that make any sense) than Peddlers Cross than any of the above. How ironic. :lol:
That will do for now.
But please do tell me why it is as you say. All you do is say that is what you think. Why? What evidence? Etc? I have explained my own reasoning in great detail.
Absolutely but I would ammend the word 'criticism' with 'counter-argument'. I have received plenty of the former but disappointingly little of the latter. In fact all I have received is subjective statements saying I am 'wrong'. I would dearly love somebody to offer a detailed account of the opposing argument. It would be interesting to see how you were thinking.
I think this is far too low. It is easy to give Peddlers Cross a mark of 160 for his Bangor success and I am quite sure that Sprinter Sacre's Kempton effort was superior. The likes of Cue Card are on marks of 155 so I think having Sprinter Sacre 10lbs superior on 165 is perfectly plausible.
They are absolutely not. I supported Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle last year because I thought it ludicrous that he was being written off because of the fact that he had never seen the track. I am more than happy to give horses the benefit of the doubt.
In contrast, Sprinter Sacre has been to the track and he has proven that he did not get up the hill in the Supreme. Al Ferof gained around 10 lengths on him from the second last when Sprinter Sacre was still on the bridle.
I do think Zen is being a little sensitive Grey. It's not like we're forming a lynching party for him (...yet
I am not being sensitive at all. I am getting frustrated that nobody seems willing to put forward a convincing counter-argument. All I get in response is 'I don't agree' or 'this is wrong'. As I keep saying, I would very much like somebody to offer an argument with which to support the alternative viewpoint.
I might have yes! Amended accordingly!
Hamm, like it or not, the point you made was indisputably rubbish. It went in direct conflict with what the trainer had said. Calling me a 'tit' in response doesn't bother me but I would suggest that it doesn't reflect well on your good self.
I must admit that this would be a worry. He always strikes me as an intelligent horse and it might be that he 'remembers' that tough race at Cheltenham. It is a small risk but one I am prepared to take.
I think the Aintree run was definitely a mistake.
This will be the last time I promise. Please please pretty please do come up with an argument to support this assertion. I have made a detailed case for my viewpoint supported with evidence. You might disagree but that is neither here nor there because the argument and my thinking process is there for all to see.
This statement is exactly the thing that is frustrating. I can handle being called a 'tit' no problem, I don't mind you thinking I am 'upset' at all, but I do wish you would come up with and explain your argument rather than make generalised subjective remarks such as this.
For example, "I cannot accept that 21 length turnaround in form is based on any sort of analysis of the form of either of these horses" - I have done the analysis, I have shown you why it is possible. If you cannot accept it then do explain why.
I hadn't actually realised that I think Sprinter Sacre is more better (does that make any sense) than Peddlers Cross than any of the above. How ironic. :lol:
That will do for now.
I'm not trying to be difficult Zen, but I simply don't understand what you would like me to do. If you are under the impression that this proves anything you're wrong (...in my opinion, of course).
Indisputably rubbish? If you want to bandy around terms like that, don't expect any members to engage in anything but a negative manner with you. You don't seem to understand that just because a trainer says something that does not make it true. You also don't understand the difference between analysis and opinion, and I hope for his sake SteveM doesn't waste one more second of his time trying to explain this.
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Keep going, Zen, keep going! You effortlessly cruised past one that might've brought you down, steadied and corrected a small early error, and are giving a couple of posters a lot of late work to do. I've got you at 120 just on this evidence alone - and with further work on this forum, there's bags of improvement ahead!
Is there really a point to any more of this disagreement for disagreement's sake on here? Everyone's had a say by now, surely, and can't we just leave this particular bone alone?
Is there really a point to any more of this disagreement for disagreement's sake on here? Everyone's had a say by now, surely, and can't we just leave this particular bone alone?
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Zenyatta
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SteveM, you appear to be confused about precisely what analysis is.
As I have already said, "It might be opinion but that does not mean that it is not analysis; the two are not mutually exclusive. Another person can analyse the same topic area and arrive at a different conclusion by interpreting the available evidence in a different manner."
The definition of Analysis is "the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts to gain a better understanding of it".
I would argue, though I am sure that most of the population would disagree, that the Arkle and who will win is a 'complex topic'. I have broken it down into 'smaller parts'. This was achieved by treating each horse individually to try and come up with a rating that best reflected their current form.
The objective is to 'gain a better understanding' of the topic. This has been achieved because I now know what rating each horse deserves.
Now that I have done the analysis, and what I have done is undoubtedly analysis, I can then evaluate. Evaluation is "about using monitoring and other information you collect to make judgements". So I have done the analysis, I have 'collected information' (in the form of ratings for this argument), so I can now 'make judgements'.
So from the analysis I have done, I then need to make a judgement on what the outcome might be. Having done this I then arrive at the conclusion.
And there we have a copybook analysis of my analysis. :lol:
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Sprinter Sacre sails over his fences, but he stumbled over a few of the hurdles in that race. Sure he was on the bridle but he wasn't fluent at the second last and stumbled through the last. The momentum lost was crucial to his chances that day. I can understand people using his third place in the Supreme as a reason to oppose him this year but it really is clutching at straws.
A convincing counter argument to what? That Peddler's Cross will win the Arkle by five lengths?
A convincing argument might be that Peddler's Cross has not bettered SS in any of his chase appearances, so to say he will beat SS by five lengths assumes an improvement that is not demonstrable, but an opinion that you hold.
As I've said I can respect that as an opinion but not as anything else.
Zenyatta
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I understand that, and I don't think you are being 'difficult'.
What I would like you to do is make an argument, similar to my own, in support of your viewpoint. That being that the 21 length turnaround that I propose being "at best hopeful and at worst fanciful" (or similar. I regret to say that I couldn't find the precise quote quickly).
It is a 21 length turnaround on the Kempton form but if you take their best performances I think Peddlers Cross needs to find 5lbs, and obviously all the ratings boys think it is less. This is easily achievable up the Cheltenham hill for the reasons that I have outlined.
Anyhow, we don't seem to be getting anywhere now so I suspect the time has come to draw this to a close before any more handbags are thrown.
These are just words Zen. If you really don't understand the distinction I'm making between analysis and opinion I can't help you. If you want to call what you have done analysis do so.
I was under the impression I had done this already. There seems little mileage left in this I agree.
Zenyatta
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I'm sorry but I couldn't let this one go.
I am absolutely 100% certain of what analysis is, as I have explained in great detail.
I analyse the information available, which I can then evaluate, which then allows me to draw conclusions. Inevitably there will be opinions involved in that process which is why two people can draw different conclusions from the same information, especially when that information is as interpretable as the formbook.
Just because you disagree with the conclusion that I have drawn does not mean that it is not analysis. I hope you can understand this point.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Can you read my posts? I think you're probably right to doubt McCain. You said McCain said there was no problem. He said there was a problem.
Okay, who's won the Highest Testosterone Count? And that's putting it politely. I hope we're done with that contest? Can we move on, please.
Now that we all know who'll be among the first three or four past the post, shouldn't we be thinking about who else is in the mix, should any of the most-beloved come out for any reason? You'd think this was literally a four-horse race, but let's assume SS fails to eat up, Peddler's gets a stone bruise, and AL FEROF runs a temperature - all quite possible, of course. Where are we then? Kauto will fair bust his belt laughing if the first three get mugged (unlikely), but shouldn't we be widening the net of other possibilities if we do lose significant runners? Surely there's a stonking good e/w chance that no-one's talking up?
Now that we all know who'll be among the first three or four past the post, shouldn't we be thinking about who else is in the mix, should any of the most-beloved come out for any reason? You'd think this was literally a four-horse race, but let's assume SS fails to eat up, Peddler's gets a stone bruise, and AL FEROF runs a temperature - all quite possible, of course. Where are we then? Kauto will fair bust his belt laughing if the first three get mugged (unlikely), but shouldn't we be widening the net of other possibilities if we do lose significant runners? Surely there's a stonking good e/w chance that no-one's talking up?
davidjohnson
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McCain doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to make an excuse up for the sake of it. He trains a few for the Timeform Betfair Racing Club, and though I've not dealt with him personally, those that have would suggest he's as straight as they come. He said there were minor problems after Kempton but wouldn't reveal, even to another owner in the yard, what they were.
Zenyatta
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Sprinter Sacre has, since the last time I looked at his form, received an Official BHA Rating . . .
. . . cue drum roll . . . .
And it is . . . . 161! Must be said I think that is stingy and leaves him just 1lb clear of Peddlers Cross. Timeform have him 4lbs clear, RPR 3lbs and I have, the one who thinks he might get beat, have him an apparently colossal 5lbs clear!!
Oh the irony . . . :lol:
. . . cue drum roll . . . .
And it is . . . . 161! Must be said I think that is stingy and leaves him just 1lb clear of Peddlers Cross. Timeform have him 4lbs clear, RPR 3lbs and I have, the one who thinks he might get beat, have him an apparently colossal 5lbs clear!!
Oh the irony . . . :lol:
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Cue Card
Zenyatta
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I struggled to rate him any lower than his official 155. I suspect the official handicapper took a similar approach. He jumped poorly but the form looks very strong and it would be very easy to rate him far higher.
I hadn't considered him to be honest, and I still don't really like him for the reason that he has been awkward at his fences in all his starts.
That was the one horse whose rating didn't fit with my established opinion. I'm not sure whether my original opinion was wrong or the form looks better than it is. What is certain is that I am giving him more consideration now.