Novice Chasers 2011-12

2 miles won't be suiting Peddlers Cross imo..I don't really think either of the two will win the Arkle

I'm surprised that PC has got that high a chase rating mind you..is there somewhere online you can get these up to date figs?..i looked on BHA site and can't find the latest ones
 
krizon said:
Okay, who's won the Highest Testosterone Count? And that's putting it politely. I hope we're done with that contest? Can we move on, please.
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Amen to that - I was on the verge of getting the .jpeg of the kittens out again. :)

Cue Card enters the Arkle reckoning on the basis of course form, on having proven stamina above and beyond a bare two miles, and on the form of his Newbury win bearing close enough comparison with the best of those rivals previously mentioned (the Post gave it an RPR of 161, only 1lb below that which Sprinter Sacre attained at Kempton).

He'd also be a welcome participant in the sense of increasing the possibility of a truly run race, if the front-running tactics of his chasing campaign so far (albeit mostly in small fields) are reprised.

What could be a fascinating element to the race is whether Sprinter Sacre decides to dice with Cue Card up front early on, to the possible detriment of both participants' chances. The Henderson gelding hasn't always had to front-run (nor Cue Card for that matter), but the evidence of two chase starts so far (again, admittedly in small fields) may suggest that he jumps and travels so exuberantly in this sphere of racing that finding himself at the head of affairs very early on is unavoidable and inevitable.

Should it arise, I can't imagine that situation suiting Cue Card one little bit, especially if it has the consequence of goading him into jumping errors (which his chasing profile to date suggests he's already quite capable of making without any potential extra provocation).

A back-to-lay prospect on the day for me, perhaps, and one to trade out on as soon as it becomes apparent (if indeed it does) that he won't be getting an uncontested lead.

Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)
 
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beat the chazer easy 4.5 lengths..chazer is a 121 hurdler
i'll give him another 20 lengths for superiority..146

the minella class form is dubious as was first chase run and first run for months..character actor is the sort of horse that collects 60+ length beatings for a living
 
Bar the Bull said:
Can you read my posts? I think you're probably right to doubt McCain. You said McCain said there was no problem. He said there was a problem.
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Look, what I said was 'McCain said there was nothing wrong with him at Kempton'. What I am referring to, to be 100% clear, is the McCain interview at Kempton, where he said there was nothing wrong with him and he would look to try him over further. I realise on re-reading it now we are apart only on semantics - I didn't mean the at Kempton to refer to PC, but to McCain. Sorry for the confusion.
 
The irony of the Arkle is it could end up looking the same as the supreme with CC and SS duelling at the head of affairs Al Ferof thriving off it and Peddlars Cross in there.
 
Hamm said:
Look, what I said was 'McCain said there was nothing wrong with him at Kempton'. What I am referring to, to be 100% clear, is the McCain interview at Kempton, where he said there was nothing wrong with him and he would look to try him over further. I realise on re-reading it now we are apart only on semantics - I didn't mean the at Kempton to refer to PC, but to McCain. Sorry for the confusion.
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That's okay. Now give me a hug.
 
Zenyatta said:
I'm sorry but I couldn't let this one go. :o

I am absolutely 100% certain of what analysis is, as I have explained in great detail.

I analyse the information available, which I can then evaluate, which then allows me to draw conclusions. Inevitably there will be opinions involved in that process which is why two people can draw different conclusions from the same information, especially when that information is as interpretable as the formbook.

Just because you disagree with the conclusion that I have drawn does not mean that it is not analysis. I hope you can understand this point.
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You've forced me to say it Zen (...I had hoped not to). I do understand what analysis is. What I mean is "meaningful analysis", but didn't want to appear to be rude... sorry.:( The distinction I'm drawing is between the leap of faith (that does have its place) that you show and analysis of meaningful data.

Like I say, both have their place, but we shouldn't disguise one as the other.
 
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If it was announced that Cue Card was off to Ditcheat I would back him . I am afraid he is held back by his trainer's quixotic running plans and most of all by his hopeless jockey IMO.
 
SteveM said:
You've forced me to say it Zen (...I had hoped not to). I do understand what analysis is. What I mean is "meaningful analysis", but didn't want to appear to be rude... sorry.:( The distinction I'm drawing is between the leap of faith (that does have its place) that you show and analysis of meaningful data.

Like I say, both have their place, but we shouldn't disguise one as the other.
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:lol: I see. As I keep saying, but I must admit I had given up, I would be delighted if you could offer a more meaningful interpretation of the data. ;)
 
The data already speak in favour of SS, he's got the form the rating, and he jumps well. Not much additional analysis is needed, especially since Peddlers's chase rating could be too high and maybe he's not going to recover from last year's assertions.

This leaves us with the hill, which might not suit SS, but what weight should be given to this factor? Can objective data help us to decide?

To answer Krizon's question, the assumption by many that Bog Warrior is only a mudlark could be mistaken.
 
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Ardross said:
If it was announced that Cue Card was off to Ditcheat I would back him . I am afraid he is held back by his trainer's quixotic running plans and most of all by his hopeless jockey IMO.
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Have said this from the start about this horse.This pair of idiots have done nothing but stifle any potential the horse has/had.It's not just the ride when he got nabbed by Bobs Worth but on the whole the way the horse has been handled.Poor poor jockey and as the horse obviously has flaws in his jumping you would think that they would try and iron these out.That said it wouldn't surprise me one bit if it goes in at a big price in the next season or two when least expected.(and this will be raw ability and not because of these clowns).
 
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Zenyatta said:
:lol: I see. As I keep saying, but I must admit I had given up, I would be delighted if you could offer a more meaningful interpretation of the data. ;)
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No hard feelings Zen. As I said right at the beginning I hope you continue to contribute your ideas and that I have not deterred you from doing so.
 
EC1 said:
beat the chazer easy 4.5 lengths..chazer is a 121 hurdler
i'll give him another 20 lengths for superiority..146

the minella class form is dubious as was first chase run and first run for months..character actor is the sort of horse that collects 60+ length beatings for a living
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It would appear they've rated Peddlers Cross on his defeat of Minella Class, but assumed the latter ran near to his best hurdle rating - which is a nonsense considering he's a former pointer, and needs further or softer to run anywhere near that mark.
Imo, it's also wishful thinking to assume PC will find gears he didn't have at Kempton - because of his mysterious problem. Much like the assumption that Long Run's jumping would improve for fitness, it appears based on factors that have little relation.
 
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i dont think that minella run to his best either it was his debut after all and i would think connections were quite happy with a round of jumping in him and into 2nd place behind a horse they didnt expect to beat

i expect pc to do much better at cheltenham providing his jumping stands up if he hadnt made a mistake at the first he would have run better allthough its a bit discomforting that he makes a small error and appears to sulk rather than getting on with things perhaps he is more comfortable over the easier fences that bangor offers.

that said i cant see the placings being reversed just a more respectable distance between SS and PC at the line. I expect al feroof will pip PC at the line for 2nd place.

if the ground is soft which i cant see it being bog warrior would be an interesting contender but with the trainers mention at every oppotunity about cut in the ground i dont see him running
 
I wouldn't be using Minella Class to rate anything if he was anymore one paced he'd stop.

Peddlers isn't entitled to be giving Sprinter Sacre any sort of race. He's been a distance horse since when he ran and won the Neptune and by pure chance he happened to be the horse who Hurrican Fly had to beat in the Champion Hurdle. The horse just behind him was/is Nicky Hendersonn 4th string and if the races this year and last were run together today PC wouldn't be in the frame.

This is not new or aftertiming on my part I've been saying the same thing from well before they met. PC simply doesn't have the turn of foot when it matters to win an Arkle, no where near it. He'll do well to be placed.
 
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