Novice chasers 2014/15

Ptit Zig was higher rated over hurdles (admittedly Josses Hill's hurdling career was short lived), has looked equally as though he needs a fence and has the benefit of two outings already this season - unbeaten over fences albeit not beating much.

Josses Hill on the other hand is coming back from a slight injury and is making a seasonal debut over fences - which the trainer openly admitted in stable tables that at that point he hadn't even schooled over.

The Seven Barrows horse may turn out to be the better long term prospect - well given NJH's recent record, for a season at most - but the prices are clearly the wrong way around this afternoon. Ptit Zig should be jolly.
 
Last edited:
Hamm said:
Can you name me the dozen others with the same level of hurdling form, likely to be better as a chaser and be a perfect type for the Arkle?
Click to expand...

Clearly, it's impossible to know which horses are likely to be "better as a chasers" or "perfect Arkle types" until we've seen them jump a fence in public, and anyone thinking they know the answer to that question in advance, is guessing. However, in thew interests of providing an answer:

Vautour
Un De Sceaux
Gods Own
Mala Beach
The Tullow Tank
Ptit Zig
Wsestern
Wicklow Brave
Valsuer Lido
Mr Mole
Brick Red
Dunraven Storm
Vibrato Valtat
Melodic Rendezvous

.....should I go on?

Granted, some of these don't have the same level of hurdling form as Josses Hill, but (even the worst of) those that don't,are within about 10lbs of JH's mark, and have already won at least one novice chase.

You can fill your boots full of the available 8/1 if you like, in the expectation that he will shorten - no-one is attempting to stop you. But you are playing in a market where the two principals are strong in the betting, and where their prices are unlikely to budge at all, until after they've run over Xmas. I still contend Josses Hill would need to win hugely impressively to get anywhere near co-favouritism (which is basically what under 5/1 would equate to) after today's race.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
Clearly, it's impossible to know which horses are likely to be "better as a chasers" or "perfect Arkle types" until we've seen them jump a fence in public, and anyone thinking they know the answer to that question in advance, is guessing. However, in thew interests of providing an answer:

Vautour
Un De Sceaux
Gods Own
Mala Beach
The Tullow Tank
Ptit Zig
Wsestern
Wicklow Brave
Valsuer Lido
Mr Mole
Brick Red
Dunraven Storm
Vibrato Valtat
Melodic Rendezvous

.....should I go on?

Granted, some of these don't have the same level of hurdling form as Josses Hill, but (even the worst of) those that don't,are within about 10lbs of JH's mark, and have already won at least one novice chase.

You can fill your boots full of the available 8/1 if you like, in the expectation that he will shorten - no-one is attempting to stop you. But you are playing in a market where the two principals are strong in the betting, and where their prices are unlikely to budge at all, until after they've run over Xmas. I still contend Josses Hill would need to win hugely impressively to get anywhere near co-favouritism (which is basically what under 5/1 would equate to) after today's race.
Click to expand...

You are a funny guy.

I saw The Tullow Tank on this list first and laughed! (remember, this is the Arkle which is a 2 mile race)

There are no 2 market leaders, only 1 of the 2 mullins horses will run in the Arkle.
 
Natch, I knew there would be some on the list you don't fancy, and that you'd run them down - I'd do the same, I expect.

Like I say - it's your money, so fill your boots......though I'd caution that you are about 6 months too late, in terms of price, because his profile for the Arkle has not changed since April, and your theory would have been much more robust, if you'd got stuck-in in the early-summer when all the groovier prices about JH were available. I expect backing him at 8/1 now must feel like a silver-medal anyway.

Just one final word of caution. Josses Hill has a profile that is a lot like that of Grandouet, no? Mind how you go. :)
 
Last edited:
I reckon we could put me on your back and we would give The Tullow Tank a race over 2 miles...

I will ignore your lame attempt at a wind-up :) He was only ever really 10s, and I took a decent break from racing, and considering all the things that could have happened, 8s is fine. Plus, he is running now, and not in February.
 
Fair enough.

The right time to take a view/have a bet, is a very personal thing anyway, and the Arkle is one of the ante-post markets where I have not had any kind of play to date (3 x novice hurdles the others), so it's not like I'm backing any of this up with real cash myself. I just think there's limited scope for JH's price to come in after today's outing, unless he pings every fence and wins with his head in his chest.......in which case, I expect I'd sit-up and take notice.
 
Euronymous said:
I can't see how UDS's price won't budge. Willie won't run both.
Click to expand...

It's more about when the prices will budge, Euro.

I think JH supporters could take a back-seat today (insofar as ante-post Arkle bets are concerned), and just see how he goes.

Whilst race conditions are probably in his favour, JH isn't in against mugs today, and they'd be in the same ball-park as him insofar as hurdling form is concerned. OK, the weight concession would perhaps push JH further clear again on 'talent', but his opponents have the huge benefit of previous chasing experience, which would counter-act that. Also, given his recent setback, I can't imagine they will want to give him a particularly hard race today, and good jump round and a decent performance will be acceptable to connections. In other words, defeat is entirely possible.

If JH is turned-over, and that defeat is followed-up less than 24hrs later by a victory for UDS at Fairyhouse, then JH probably drifts a point or two for the Arkle (depending on how far he was beaten at Ascot). Even if JH wins at Ascot, his price is likely to remain more-or-less neutral until the outcome of UDS's race is known.

On balance, I think people wanting to back JH aren't going to lose out massively on price, if they just hold-off and see how he runs at Ascot....because it's the UDS run on Saturday, that is really going to boss the market, and today's outing isn't going to define Josses Hill's season - not by a long way.
 
Last edited:
I hope JH wins and is impressive in doing so, be great then to see UDS rout them tomorrow and Vautour hose in at Christmas. One or two others who could have a say Gilgamboa and Ptit zig

A proper clash at Cheltenham between what looks an above average crop of novice chasers will make this a great thread for the remainder of the season.
 
JH is currently enhanced to 2.75 with Coral (mobile site only). Betfair 2.30. But max allowed is just £20.
 
impressive from ptit zig. josses jumping was pretty sketchy but otherwise a decent first run. they were miles clear on dunraven storm.
 
I can't decide if Josses Hill is an accident waiting to happen, or if that was a good, educational, outing.

There are things to like about JH's performance, but the horse to take out of the race is undoubtedly the winner. There was plenty to like about Ptit Zig before today, and 10/1 seems a pretty-generous Arkle price after-the-fact.
 
Last edited:
Christ, give it a rest!

His profile was good, he's built like a chaser, had top class hurdle form, top trainer, no doubt about target if good enough à la the Mullins pair. What do you want - 12s - 16s?!
 
Fair enough run from Josses in terms of distance behind the winner, who should have been fav. He's smart alright.
 
Hamm said:
Christ, give it a rest!

His profile was good, he's built like a chaser, had top class hurdle form, top trainer, no doubt about target if good enough à la the Mullins pair. What do you want - 12s - 16s?!
Click to expand...

Is this aimed at me, Hamm??
 
Very disappointing if rooting for him. I think he would be awful round cheltenham too. i suspect he may not run

might be built like a chaser but he races like Larry Grayson.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
I can't decide if Josses Hill is an accident waiting to happen, or if that was a good, educational, outing.

There are things to like about JH's performance, but the horse to take out of the race is undoubtedly the winner. There was plenty to like about Ptit Zig before today, and 10/1 seems a pretty-generous Arkle price after-the-fact.
Click to expand...

Engine looks very good but doesn't look a natural jumper to me. He needs to run at least twice more, probably 3 times, if he is to get some rhythm.
 
Grasshopper said:
Is this aimed at me, Hamm??
Click to expand...

No!

FYI - I changed tack and backed him today rather than for the Arkle. I don't rate Petit Zig and thought he, if not needing to win, probably should if he is to shape up into a decent Arkle horse. I had a bit of luck on bets derived from boredom earlier this week so was happy to give it a go. I like backing horses where I like the profiles and see an interest for a few months. 8s was around the right price for me, and a pity he didn't run better. Has Henderson anything else for the Arkle?
 
Back
Top