Novice chasers 2014/15

Unless he spanks them tomorrow Hamm, he's unlikely to shorten I would have thought. Plus he's up against no mugs who are race fit.
 
If he won in any reasonable fashion I would have thought, given it's his seasonal debut, he could end up significantly shorter than 8s..
 
Fair assumption he could shorten to 6 or 7s. If he got turned over though which must be a possibility, would he shorten. Though given how tight these sods are now, even if he just turns up he'll probably shorten.
 
Yes, as he has the perfect profile for the race and will be a better chaser than hurdler. I would take 8s about this kind of horse every time.
 
Frankel said:
Fair assumption he could shorten to 6 or 7s. If he got turned over though which must be a possibility, would he shorten. Though given how tight these sods are now, even if he just turns up he'll probably shorten.
Click to expand...

If he wins reasonably well (an if I grant you), I think he will be 4s or 9/2.
 
Last edited:
Hamm said:
Yes, as he has the perfect profile for the race and will be a better chaser than hurdler. I would take 8s about this kind of horse every time.
Click to expand...

Not for me. The race is in March. He could well win the Arkle, but what is the shortest he will likely be in March, 5/1. Don't see this 8/1 as a must get on price. Already under priced as a result of his connections
 
The context was around where ruby rides on the 26th

'he can go to Kempton to ride a gold cup and champion hurdler or stay at home and ride an Arkle horse, he will go to kempton'
 
Well that was a no brainer tbh.

Though they had better do the ruddy obvious regards the other matter.
 
Re Josses Hill being a "perfect type" for the Arkle, so about a dozen others; some of whom have already shown a degree of aptitude for jumping fences.

I can't see much room for contraction this weekend - the books have had him onside throughout the Summer/Autumn, and he'd need to be seriously impressive if his price was to, say, halve.
 
Last edited:
Apparently suffered a setback and didn't even see a fence until very recently Clive - read into that what you will but I do recall reading a quote from Nicky somewhere as to what the 'slight' injury was.

In a normal year a comfortable win against these tomorrow would see his price shorten significantly but if Vautour is looking like being aimed there then I'll look no further for the winner.
 
Grasshopper said:
Re Josses Hill being a "perfect type" for the Arkle, so about a dozen others; some of whom have already shown a degree of aptitude for jumping fences.

I can't see much room for contraction this weekend - the books have had him onside throughout the Summer/Autumn, and he'd need to be seriously impressive if his price was to, say, halve.
Click to expand...

Can you name me the dozen others with the same level of hurdling form, likely to be better as a chaser and be a perfect type for the Arkle?
 
Last edited:
granger said:
Not for me. The race is in March. He could well win the Arkle, but what is the shortest he will likely be in March, 5/1. Don't see this 8/1 as a must get on price. Already under priced as a result of his connections
Click to expand...

He could be sub 2/1, who knows, impossible to say, but certainly I'd hope he'd be quite a bit shorter than 5s..
 
granger said:
Not for me. The race is in March. He could well win the Arkle, but what is the shortest he will likely be in March, 5/1. Don't see this 8/1 as a must get on price. Already under priced as a result of his connections
Click to expand...

That's plain wrong. He got as close as he did to Vautaur in the Supreme despite being totally inefficient at virtually every hurdle, giving them all plenty of air. In other words plenty like a Sizing Europe or a Sprinter Sacre when they were racing over the smaller obstacles.

In the context of his price though, it has to be said that Sprinter Sacre went from 10s to 7s after his impressive debut at Doncaster and thanks to Peddlers Cross was still around 9/2 before the Game Spirit in February.
 
Last edited:
My point revolves around the price not the horse.

The books have had him well marked all along. My idea of a good AP bet doesn't involve shaving four points or so of a horse come March before his first outing.
 
He's been available at 10s all summer and Autumn, 12s in only one place up until a week or so ago. One can understand a little contraction given the fact that up until recently there were vibes he wouldn't be seen until the new year.

What price was he supposed to be given the dearth of opponents Vautaur apart? Whisper has been the same price as Josses Hill for the RSA despite holding nowhere near the same credentials.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top