Novice chasers 2014/15

HDO was 10.5 lengths behind Lord Windermere in 2013 and 24 lengths behind in 2014. There's no particular reason to think that he'll be any closer this year so, on that basis, Coneygree should definitely stick to the RSA. All the available evidence is that Kings Palace likes to lead and he maybe frets a little if he hasn't got an easy lead. If Coneygree takes him on in the RSA I'm not sure how KP will react but I'd have thought it will lessen his chances considerably. Don Poli is quite happy settled in and could benefit from a duel up front. Interesting race in prospect.
 
HDO isn't as suited by the better ground at Cheltenham as he is by the softer stuff he's been achieving his best ratings on. He's also much more consistent this season.

My figures say he has improved but they might be wrong.
 
wilsonl said:
I stand corrected somewhat in that my memory has faded into thinking Nick Dundee was clear when he fell but in fact Looks Like Trouble, while seemingly going much the worse of the two, was being scrubbed alongside. The pair in isolation.
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Amazing what memory does - my recollection was of LLT being a few lengths ahead having led most of the way, with Nick Dundee seemingly cruising up to challenge. I daresay that's another race entirely!

Seeing the video again - I'd take the view that Carberry looking behind for other dangers indicates he has plenty of horse under him and decides to kick on to put ND to the sword (rather than scrubbing to maintain the pace).
 
archie said:
All the available evidence is that Kings Palace likes to lead and he maybe frets a little if he hasn't got an easy lead.
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I admit it's a concern and I would rather Coneygree waited for the Friday, but all the evidence is only the one race, and there were factors that day other than not leading that led to him running poorly
 
I don't want to be remembered as the loony who said HBO had a decent squeak in the G Cup!

However, in a race where there is no obvious superstar present, or anything that is a good few lengths ahead of the rest, a consistent type who's been in good form throughout the season in Houblon, would appeal to me a bit, even as a back-to-lay option in running. Afterall, he wants to up there.
I havn't done the old back-to-lay in running thing on betfair for years, but anyway.

Coneygree was so impressive. Can he dictate for two and a half extra furlongs in the GC?
The only worry is his lack of racing experience at that level, imo.
I wouldn't blame connections if they went for it...
 
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KIngs Palace "stiff" after his race at Newbury and will be scratched from the Gold Cup tomorrow leaving RSA as his only target
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't have the ORs or my own figures directly to hand but on current RPRs (ie before Saturday):
HDO 169
Unioniste 161
TDS 164
KP 156
DP 154

Coneygree got 169 for Saturday and looked to have something in reserve. I think that RPR would win just about any RSA in recent history but I can't check the figures just yet.



You're right about HC. It was a duff renewal but I wasn't thinking about his overall ability, just that on the day he ran everything ragged from the off. He did, though, get a 168 RPR in the Peter Marsh the following season after running a good fourth in the Hennessy and was only 8/1 for that season's Gold Cup.
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All this does, DO, is confirm my long-held and oft-voiced opinion that the persons who compile RPRs are complete numpties! :lol:

To be honest, I'm worried about Coneygree. Not particularly because I think his form is necessarily miles superior to Kings Palace, but because he is getting battle-hardened. There's no hiding place in an RSA Chase (despite more dilute field numbers in recent years), and Kings Palace has won softer races in comparison. Coneygree has more measurable form too, whereas there's more guesswork involved in Kings Palace. I confess, if I hadn't had a bet in the race at this stage, I suspect I'd be more inclined to back Coneygree than Kings Palace, and may just have to have a cover bet on the day, if he does go the RSA route.

There's no point in me having cover on Don Poli, as he's in much the same boat as KP, in terms of having less measurable form than Coneygree.
 
if HDO is a 169 horse then he must have run some races that are not in his form lines..has he been running behind closed doors?

169???

thats a stone over what he actually is
 
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hang on..i've just checked the RPR's..HDO and coneygree are both 169 now..both must have earned them on Saturday..even ignoring the highness of them..how can Coneygree get the same rating as a horse he beats by 7 getting a lb?
 
HDO is deemed to have been below that 169 (earned in a previous race) on Saturday. I'm not sure how they could arrive at that conclusion having watched the race a few times.

There's the chance they will go back now and downgrade HDO's previous form but that would imply that the likes of the Hennessy, which is working out so well, isn't as hot as we thought. As I say, strange.
 
Given that the current crop of stayers aren't that wonderful, I think coneygree would have a live chance in the gold cup. I can see him galloping them into submission a la Denman. There is nothing of the level of opponent Denman faced around today.

Not much mileage in backing him now though. 12/1 best price nrnb and he couldn't go off that much shorter on the day could he?


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In my experience, RPR take far too literal a view when compiling their figures. Their overall approach lacks subtelty, imo. In their defence, they have to produce a mark for every runner, whereas I have the luxury of being much more selective....but this does give their figures a 'mass produced' feel, and therefore not something I place any stock in.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
HDO is deemed to have been below that 169 (earned in a previous race) on Saturday. I'm not sure how they could arrive at that conclusion having watched the race a few times.

There's the chance they will go back now and downgrade HDO's previous form but that would imply that the likes of the Hennessy, which is working out so well, isn't as hot as we thought. As I say, strange.
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They appear to have taken Unioniste as their marker, and have that horse improving by 1lb to a new pb.
Entirely reasonable view, imo.
 
Grasshopper said:
In my experience, RPR take far too literal a view when compiling their figures. Their overall approach lacks subtelty, imo. In their defence, they have to produce a mark for every runner, whereas I have the luxury of being much more selective....but this does give their figures a 'mass produced' feel, and therefore not something I place any stock in.
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If they took too literal a view of the form, wouldn't they have assumed HDO had run to form?

I too think my selective approach allows me to have more confidence in my own conclusions but I'm open to others' interpretation being more accurate at least in some races.

I often look in at the handicappers' blogs (they haven't done any this year so far) to see how they're thinking and to see to what extent I agree or disagree.

I think Euro mentioned Hey Big Spender earlier. That's an interesting example. When he won a couple of runs back I concluded that the race fell apart off an over-fast pace and he mopped it up, not having to do any more than his previous best no matter how impressive it looked at the time. RPRs went much higher for him, taking the form more literally. His next run (behind TYM/HDO) offered strong evidence that his form was indeed better than I'd thought; that he might indeed be, as his stable had claimed, better than ever this season.

But Euro might be right and my original assessment would have been along similar lines but I reckon taking other lines from the race into account that on the balance of probability HBS is closer to the RPR from the earlier run. He OR had gone up quite a bit for that so the official handicapper had agreed. I think the correct figure is below that and above my original one, otherwise I'd be looking at pretty moderate ratings for TYM and HDO, which I'd be very uncomfortable with.

I'd never say I wouldn't place any stock in their ratings. I can be dismissive at times of Tf's ratings but I'm still curious regarding how they arrived at them. Likewise with ORs and RPRs. Looking at them all with an open mind, I reckon, helps me see a range of possible evaluations from which I can arrive at one with which I am the most comfortable.
 
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