Novice chasers 2014/15

I am fully prepared to be shot down in flames for this, but is Un De Sceaux really that bombproof for The Arkle? I'll qualify that statement by adding that I have a terrible record in The Arkle. Well Chief was my last winner!

To the eye he looks a frightening animal and even other trainers are raving about him but 4/7 looks an awfully short price to me for a novice. Others may disagree but the only piece of form I'm willing to weigh up his chances with is his last run. Admittedly it was impressive on the eye, destroying a decent yardstick in Clarcam and Gilgamboa who at the time was considered a leading contender for The Arkle.

However, we now know Gilgamboa may not have been all that or there was something amiss with him after his run at the weekend. As for Clarcam, well Vautor beat him just as impressively earlier in the season whilst giving him a stone. I am fully aware Clarcam reversed those places the next time they met but I'm willing to discount that due to the shuddering mistake Vautor made in that race.

So we are left with an animal that is somewhere around the ability of Vautour over 2 miles. This is probably good enough to win a good Arkle in all fairness but would Vautour be such a short price if he were lining up instead? I'd argue not.

Now this is a pointless argument unless I can find something to potentially beat him and in all honesty Vibrato Valtat is the only realistic answer He looks better every time he tackles the larger obstacles and has the running style which may offer to best chance of victory. It's all going to come down to whether he can stick somewhere near Un De Sceaux's backside when Ruby says go (probably as they're turning in) but if he does then 4/7 is going to look awfully short jumping the last.
 
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Wouldn't back him at current prices but looks by far the most likely winner. I have him in the 20/1 slim chance UDS Vautour double.
 
Difficult to oppose him given the depth of decent opposition but since his fences debut I've been a big fan of Vibrato Valtat and have had a saver on him too.

That said, I was more confident about both Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig who were similarly short prices.
 
Unless you hold an earlier voucher UDS is one for the multiples. The only play on the race is to back something else each way and I agree Vibrato Valtat looks the most likely.
 
I forget this every year. If you back e/w now and only 7 turn up on the day do you still get the 3 places that were on offer at the time that bet was struck?
 
If jockey are good judges then Un De Sceaux is past the post. There's a couple of videos that give you a clue to what AP thinks about him,

In one he talks about how amazing he thought the horse was, stating he had gone off very fast then suddenly he quickened again and was gone in a flash.

In the other video he and Ruby were asked if they could ride one horse at the festival the other was riding which one would they chose.

Ruby just burst out laughing and was having none of it as he knew what AP was going to say,

It would seem no one doubts that this horse is very special.

Personally I take no credit for saying he is very special because it never even crossed my mind to a back him until Slim advised everyone to back him along with Vautour.

Even then I backed him blind and had no idea who's horse it was until I went and looked :o
 
Tanlic said:
Even then I backed him blind and had no idea who's horse it was until I went and looked :o
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you didnt read my posts last year
even my grandmother knew he was special
the question is why they didnt allow him to win last years Champion Hurdle
 
sunybay said:
you didnt read my posts last year
even my grandmother knew he was special
the question is why they didnt allow him to win last years Champion Hurdle
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i'm having some too Suny..i kept getting shot down when i said his times were special..only Suny + me wanted him in the CH..only beaten trees we were told

a real shame he never ran in it
 
I'm getting quite sick of reading trainer quotes saying they think a horse should go for one race but the owners think different. Gigginstown are the worst offenders for this which is no surprise given that self righteous prick O'Leary is calling the shots.

What makes these people think they know better than those who train these animals every single day? You don't see John Henry demanding Daniel Sturridge plays at left back do you. Some may argue it's actually Mullins being stubborn with Gigginstown and the Ricci's but I've read quotes from Meade with similar grumblings.

In stark contrast it's not noticeable with JP and you'll often see two of his with leading fancies in the same race.
 
In the case of Don Poli, I hope Mullins is forced to send him where he should actually be running.
 
You can't but you could also point out that there are no grade 1's beyond 3m2f if i'm not mistaken....

People just don't like watching slow horses unless there are 40 of em hurling themselves over enormous fences... To be fair, whats not to like!
 
Aragorn said:
You can't but you could also point out that there are no grade 1's beyond 3m2f if i'm not mistaken....

People just don't like watching slow horses
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I love watching them, I often wonder should horses like Back in Focus, Teaforthree, Midnight Chase etc not attempt the 3m5f Grade 1 races in France.
 
Very good point ref the French races - Am i right in thinking 3m2f of the gold cup is the longest grade 1 in the UK? I'm racking my brains now!

I enjoy them CL but I prefer watching a 2m chaser at full tilt.
 
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