Novice chasers 2014/15

Desert Orchid said:
No contest. Kings Palace won't last with Coneygree. There's a huge difference between making all against novices and making all against Gold Cup pretenders. Kings Palace will be looking towards the ambulance for oxygen after a mile.

Coneygree reminds me of Looks Like Trouble and that northern Collonges winner of the RSA. Just too much pace.
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There were no genuine 'Gold Cup pretenders' in the Denman Chase - something their pre-Newbury odds would confirm. Most of them wouldn't be rated any higher than a decent winner of the RSA Chase, and in Coneygree, KP and DP, you have three horses capable of fitting that bill.

As for Hussard Collonges, he was utterly paceless; winning a truly desperate renewal of the RSA chase before failing to win another race in umpteen attempts.....though I'll give you Looks Like Trouble - he was a great horse.
 
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Certainly LLT went on to become a great horse but my memory is that Nick Dundee was cantering all over him when crashing out in that RSA


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Looks Like Trouble couldn't get anywhere near the pace set by Nick Dundee in the RSA and Grassy; "great horse" :blink: he won a RSA by default and a Gold Cup from a pair of non stayers.

All that said, Coneygree is a thoroughly likeable yolk who may continue to be underestimated but, while if Nichols etc had him I'd say give him another year, but sometimes when a horse hits a roll (Hunt Ball) then "make hay" as the saying goes. Will Bradstock ever get another chance of winning a Gold Cup ?
 
viking said:
Certainly LLT went on to become a great horse but my memory is that Nick Dundee was cantering all over him when crashing out in that RSA


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I've never heard a groan like it at Cheltenham when Nick Dundee fell.
I'd take Coneygree over King's Palace all day, however get the feeling that they could cut each other's throats and set it up for some rag to win the RSA.
 
Coneygree will go GC route,everything about the trainer/owners says they will.They are after the top prize as some sort of legacy to oaksey.They seem sporting bunch too.As someone earlier posted the horse is on a roll and if it gets into a rhythm jumping out front then who knows.
 
simmo said:
Looks to me as if the pressure LLT put Nick Dundee under caused the mistake.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dVvVVkDGCw
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Thanks for posting that Simmo and that is actually a fair reflection.

I stand corrected somewhat in that my memory has faded into thinking Nick Dundee was clear when he fell but in fact Looks Like Trouble, while seemingly going much the worse of the two, was being scrubbed alongside. The pair in isolation.

Painful to re-watch still though.
 
viking said:
Certainly LLT went on to become a great horse but my memory is that Nick Dundee was cantering all over him when crashing out in that RSA
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Might have been before your time on here, viking, but that debate raged for long enough at the time. I reckon subsequent events offered plenty of evidence that Nick Dundee wouldn't have got near LLT but we'll never really know.
 
Grasshopper said:
There were no genuine 'Gold Cup pretenders' in the Denman Chase - something their pre-Newbury odds would confirm. Most of them wouldn't be rated any higher than a decent winner of the RSA Chase, and in Coneygree, KP and DP, you have three horses capable of fitting that bill.
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I don't have the ORs or my own figures directly to hand but on current RPRs (ie before Saturday):
HDO 169
Unioniste 161
TDS 164
KP 156
DP 154

Coneygree got 169 for Saturday and looked to have something in reserve. I think that RPR would win just about any RSA in recent history but I can't check the figures just yet.

Grasshopper said:
As for Hussard Collonges, he was utterly paceless; winning a truly desperate renewal of the RSA chase before failing to win another race in umpteen attempts.....though I'll give you Looks Like Trouble - he was a great horse.
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You're right about HC. It was a duff renewal but I wasn't thinking about his overall ability, just that on the day he ran everything ragged from the off. He did, though, get a 168 RPR in the Peter Marsh the following season after running a good fourth in the Hennessy and was only 8/1 for that season's Gold Cup.
 
There's surely no way in the world that HDO can be considered that good. He was being asked someway out on Saturday and there's two ways of looking at that run before at Ascot, yes he wasn't that far behind The Young Master giving him a lot of weight, but he also wasn't that far in front of Hey Big Spender giving him just 5lb.
 
Timeform had HDO on 162* before Saturday.

His OR was 162, I had him on 164.

[* Same mark as The Giant Bolster, fwiw]
 
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HDO's a boat imo, and probably ran his best race in the Hennessy, when he had both ground and trip in his favour.
 
i think HDO is overrated by the OHR he has a bit because of carrying big weights in handicaps has flattered him..in conditions races he isn't producing figures that the the weights in handicaps he carries suggests he may be capable of...ratings built on mainly carrying weight doesn't always translate to lengths in conditions races

he has run his race on saturday imo..away from handicaps..thats his level
 
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RPRs also have HDO 6lbs off his best on Saturday. I just can't see where that comes from at the moment. I'll get a closer look at the form on Wednesday.
 
My initial post-race impression:

The novice Coneygree was very impressive in slamming older and more experienced rivals in the Denman. He looks absolutely nailed on for the RSA. I can’t see any other novice living with his pace and jumping but on strict lines with Houblon Des Obeaux he’s a 165/166 type right now. I hope connections eschew the Gold Cup this season. Normal second season improvement might give him a better chance next year. The form in behind appears to stack up. Take the winner out and Houblon Des Obeaux has put Unioniste and Taquin Du Seuil firmly in their place. The last-named, though, ran a better race than I expected. He travelled like the best horse in the race until clouting the penultimate fence in the back straight and survived another mistake two later at the cross fence yet still challenged for second two out before his stamina started to ebb. I wonder if he’d be better at shorter. I wonder if connections of Coneygree have missed a trick, though. He’d have had an excellent chance in the Hennessy come November off his mark of 153.
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just to add..to confirm the outside hcap thing..last time out of a handicap he ran to a 154..near on same as saturday..coincidence...or is that his..outside hcap figure?
 
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