Novice chasers 2014/15

Aragorn said:
:blink:

I'm a big fan of WW but which spout of shite did you pull that from?!! :lol: Don Poli beat him comfortably on his debut when WW was second time up and I think the Topaz is the best staying novice chase form bar Coneygree. I have to say, I am hoping they go GC with Coneygree. Ive stopped backing DP since Coneygree's race at Newbury.
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I would expect Don Poli to beat WW over a wholly inadequate 20f, Aragorn. But at 3m+ the differential in their respective odds is a patent nonsense. Like Euro, I'm also of the opinion that the Irish staying novice form is weaker than the markets suggests. It hasn't been tested sufficiently either, because the protaganists haven't run often enough, whereas Coneygree is now proven in open company, and TYM has very good handicap form.

In my view, the UK form is inherently stronger than the Irish form, yet DP remains fave for the RSA despite being a potential Non Runner. My only concern is that I've rowed-in too early with Kings Palace, in the hope that Coneygree would go to the Gold Cup, and TYM would take-in the 4-miler.

I'm generally an advocate of Irish form - it often being too readily dismissed this side of the Puddle - but in this case, I have to think it's weaker, and Don Poli's price in particular, is a shocker. IMO.

Put it in these terms. Who do you think is a better judge of where a horse should run - Willie Mullins or Michael O'Leary?
 
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Grasshopper said:
Put it in these terms. Who do you think is a better judge of where a horse should run - Willie Mullins or Michael O'Leary?
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It's not that simple though. If Don Poli was the only novice chaser Mullins had then he'd 100% go for the RSA imo. But because he has Valseur Lido and Vautour in the JLT he wants to shuffle the deck and give himself a strong candidate in all four races.

I'm of the view that the Irish staying novice chasers looked a very strong bunch at the start of the season and the Topaz form is excellent imo. I'm a big Apache Stronghold an and was extremely impressed with how Don Poli shrugged him off, looked to have loads in the tank imo. Don't think it was as simple as Apache Stronghold not staying even though that's how it looked.
 
I think it is that simple, THM - or simple enough, at any rate.

Other than Vroum Vroum Mag, none of the other WPM entries for the RSA look remotely likely they'd get the trip. DP is 100% the obvious entry from the yard to run in the race, unless he chooses to let VVM take her chance getting the allowances. If WPM is suggesting they go to the NH Chase with Don Poli...or at least suggesting that is his preference, I don't think he does have a ready-made replacement in the RSA amongst his other entries.

In effect, DP is the only novice he has who could run in the RSA, and reasonably be expected to put himself in the frame. That's why his preference for the 4-Miler suggest he'd be a lot more confident winning there, than he would in the shorter race. Rightly so, imo.....it's as hot a renewal as I can recall.
 
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thehorsesmouth said:
I'm a big Apache Stronghold an and was extremely impressed with how Don Poli shrugged him off, looked to have loads in the tank imo. Don't think it was as simple as Apache Stronghold not staying even though that's how it looked.
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Bang on. If he shoves Don in the 4 miler, I will hunt Mullins down.
 
JLT should be as good a race as the RSA

At least three very good Irish horses in it - Vautour was all the talk coming into the season and ran a stinker at Leop but might yet be very special.

Shanahans Turn will run beyond his odds too if turnng up here
 
Grasshopper said:
I would expect Don Poli to beat WW over a wholly inadequate 20f, Aragorn. But at 3m+ the differential in their respective odds is a patent nonsense. Like Euro, I'm also of the opinion that the Irish staying novice form is weaker than the markets suggests. It hasn't been tested sufficiently either, because the protaganists haven't run often enough, whereas Coneygree is now proven in open company, and TYM has very good handicap form.

In my view, the UK form is inherently stronger than the Irish form, yet DP remains fave for the RSA despite being a potential Non Runner. My only concern is that I've rowed-in too early with Kings Palace, in the hope that Coneygree would go to the Gold Cup, and TYM would take-in the 4-miler.

I'm generally an advocate of Irish form - it often being too readily dismissed this side of the Puddle - but in this case, I have to think it's weaker, and Don Poli's price in particular, is a shocker. IMO.

Put it in these terms. Who do you think is a better judge of where a horse should run - Willie Mullins or Michael O'Leary?
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In relation to Don Poli 100% O'Leary :cool: He knows his sh!t.

Don Poli was going away from WW, he would muller him over further. I would send WW to the 4 miler personally but looks like Very Wood has that job.

Like thehorsesmouth, I thought the Topaz was very strong novice form at the time and it still is. Coneygree's performance was massive though and I think I've said somewhere else that I've not backed DP since. I still really fancy DP though. That Martin Pipe win showed he has the class to win over 2m4f on good ground. 3m over fences will be spot on and it will be a mighty race iff the front 3 in the betting all run.
 
granger said:
JLT should be as good a race as the RSA

At least three very good Irish horses in it - Vautour was all the talk coming into the season and ran a stinker at Leop but might yet be very special.

Shanahans Turn will run beyond his odds too if turnng up here
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Interesting to see which Vautour turns up. Who do you fancy for it?
 
twood be good if UDS win and a to have all that luvly jubbly poppy going on to Vautour but I've lost complete confidence in him. His 2 wind can only described as schooling session with nothing trying a leg behind but when he blundered and came under pressure in his 2nd race I saw a huge hole in him.

There's more than a few decent animals in this and I reckon at some point he's certain to be put under pressure and there's a chance he'll fold.

I'll wait to see what's declared to run before I lay off some off if the double in=s on and betting something else.........Not that confident I'm correct so having 2 bites at the cherry instead of one appeals.

Most likely Apache Stronghold is the one I'll go for
 
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