Novice Chasers 2016/2017

Do you ever think before you post...............The commentator during the race pointed out he's fav for the Gold Cup. The headline today in the RP is GOLD CUP FAV THISTLECRACK.

Of course he's being touted as a Gold Cup winner and that is ridiculous at this stage.

When I say they can all do that I mean class horses, many of who have fooled thousand least of all you.............MIN.


yes i think a lot before i post..in fact i probably think and contribute more actual fact/detail etc...than most on any forum i've cast my eye over over the years

i sometimes though misread what someone has implied..Grass will confirm this:)....i thought you were saying there was talk on this forum about him being able to win a GC since he won yesterday..that was what i meant by no one has said it..i meant someone with sense..ie folk on here..not daft commentators of RP hacks.

the press and commentators spout a lot of rubbish about horses..when i need to start listening to them or trainers and jocks..i'll pack game in:)..which is why i always think people are referring to people on this forum because if i passed a view on every thought the press throw out i'd be needing a long list

oh yes..i've thought many horses are pretty good...and i have been wrong/right many times..Altior..last October..before the "i need to see it run 5 more times before i will be convinced brigade" ..latched on to it.

I spotted the triumph hurdle won by your 2nd fav horse weren't up to much..i spotted that the day after..it took most punters months to realise it weren't great form..and even then some wouldn't admit it:)...Peace & Co emptied many pockets after that Triumph...easy to get it wrong isn't it about horses?..even when they have run a few times

i don't particularly regard Min as being a flop..so that example ain't a good one imo...i fear you may be suffering recency bias a little with him....he might yet prove to be a pretty decent animal. Don't forget..i put opinions up about how good I think horses are after i have analysed just one race sometimes..i don't wait for 4 or 5 runs just to confirm it..so i am never going to be right 100%...no one is.
 
Last edited:
I still want him to go RSA.....but only because i have him in loads of accas from last year. I think there is no doubt that if he does the business at Cheltenham next month that they will go the Gold Cup route. Should he be fav? Not based on any form thats for sure...but there are major doubts about all of the leading contenders. Another reason why Tizzard will very likely go the GC route.
 
You could see Tizzard thinking KG KG KG in his post-race interview yesterday and I was thinking why the hell not go for the novice race that Coneygree won? Kauto Star Novices I believe its called.
 
You got it spot on with the press EC it's their job to promote racing and they like all the media tend to exaggerate the truth.

This season I wouldn't mind a bet that when Douvan is entered in the same race as Sprinter Sacre it will be billed as the race of the century even although Willie or Nicky have said theirs will be running elsewhere.

Unfortunately paper never refuses ink and they will print just about anything to keep the interest up.

Example. Colin Tizzard says the plan is 2 novices then the Feltham according to one report/probably several

Then if you look elsewhere you get heading like this on the UK's Brief Report "Thistlecrack could race King George VI Chase against Cue Card at Kempton, suggests Colin Tizzard"

To enable the Daily Mail where the report originated from, all a reporter need do is ask a simple question "Have you totally ruled out him running in King George"

The reporter knows full well he's going to say he's not ruling anything out this early...........eg Cue card could get injured the race could cut up badly and then it becomes a possibility

Insert the word COULD and some punters reading it get all excited over something that has 1 chance in 20 of happening but job done and on to the next bullshit story if they can't find something else to write about.
 
Timeform verdict

Time: 6m 23s Closing Sectional: (2.55f): 36.15s (114.5%)


One of those rare occasions where the horse is far bigger than the race, this novice taking on great significance as the starting point for the next chapter in the career of Thistlecrack, his chasing debut, and he had read the script, ticking box after box in the jumping exam, exhilarating for what could be to come, pity on those who went up against him here, Aqalim at least giving him some sort of workout.


THISTLECRACK took a positive and foot-perfect first step on the path to the Gold Cup, a plan that need only be described as ambitious if his jumping didn't look up to the job, such is his prodigious ability over hurdles (Timeform rated 174p), brilliant winner of the World Hurdle in an unbeaten 2015/16 campaign, and the early prognosis from the jumping test here was very good; things were kept simple as he made all, given some extra rein to extend only twice, firstly on the run to the home straight to jump at greater speed once his eye was in, and then from the last to complete an easy job, but all the scrutiny was on his fencing, and the impressive part wasn't just the unblemished round but the array of technique he showcased along the way, nimble and agile when getting close to 5 out, jumping out of Scudamore's hands 4 out, running down 2 out when needing to put himself right, then fast and accurate at the last; it will reportedly be another novice, at Cheltenham in November, up next for him, but to say he already looks a natural over fences is an understatement, and we know from his hurdling engine, fine-tuned over last season, that there'll be little or nothing to outrun him in staying chases, even in a Gold Cup.
 
Tanlic said:
You got it spot on with the press EC it's their job to promote racing and they like all the media tend to exaggerate the truth.

This season I wouldn't mind a bet that when Douvan is entered in the same race as Sprinter Sacre it will be billed as the race of the century even although Willie or Nicky have said theirs will be running elsewhere.

Unfortunately paper never refuses ink and they will print just about anything to keep the interest up.

Example. Colin Tizzard says the plan is 2 novices then the Feltham according to one report/probably several

Then if you look elsewhere you get heading like this on the UK's Brief Report "Thistlecrack could race King George VI Chase against Cue Card at Kempton, suggests Colin Tizzard"

To enable the Daily Mail where the report originated from, all a reporter need do is ask a simple question "Have you totally ruled out him running in King George"

The reporter knows full well he's going to say he's not ruling anything out this early...........eg Cue card could get injured the race could cut up badly and then it becomes a possibility

Insert the word COULD and some punters reading it get all excited over something that has 1 chance in 20 of happening but job done and on to the next bullshit story if they can't find something else to write about.
Click to expand...

speculating which races a horse will actually run in isn't something i look too hard at to be fair..i only read stuff about it when i read threads on here..it would have my head buzzing trying to make sense of what is said

I blame Coneygree for winning the GC as a novice..now the press think it can happen all the time.:)
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Timeform verdict

Time: 6m 23s Closing Sectional: (2.55f): 36.15s (114.5%)


One of those rare occasions where the horse is far bigger than the race, this novice taking on great significance as the starting point for the next chapter in the career of Thistlecrack, his chasing debut, and he had read the script, ticking box after box in the jumping exam, exhilarating for what could be to come, pity on those who went up against him here, Aqalim at least giving him some sort of workout.


THISTLECRACK took a positive and foot-perfect first step on the path to the Gold Cup, a plan that need only be described as ambitious if his jumping didn't look up to the job, such is his prodigious ability over hurdles (Timeform rated 174p), brilliant winner of the World Hurdle in an unbeaten 2015/16 campaign, and the early prognosis from the jumping test here was very good; things were kept simple as he made all, given some extra rein to extend only twice, firstly on the run to the home straight to jump at greater speed once his eye was in, and then from the last to complete an easy job, but all the scrutiny was on his fencing, and the impressive part wasn't just the unblemished round but the array of technique he showcased along the way, nimble and agile when getting close to 5 out, jumping out of Scudamore's hands 4 out, running down 2 out when needing to put himself right, then fast and accurate at the last; it will reportedly be another novice, at Cheltenham in November, up next for him, but to say he already looks a natural over fences is an understatement, and we know from his hurdling engine, fine-tuned over last season, that there'll be little or nothing to outrun him in staying chases, even in a Gold Cup.
Click to expand...

Sorry DG but you surely aren't trying to tell us the World Hurdle was competitive? It may well turn out to have been one of the worst in recent history. The chasing world is littered with class at the moment...There's at least 10 horses out their with better chasing records than those who ran in the WH have hurdling records.

Little doubt in my mind Thistlecrack is about to enter a whole different world and he's going to meet animals better than he has ever raced against before. EG Pitzig? How does he compare to Vautor? Cue Card ? Don Cossack ? not to mention Mighty Douvan should he follow in Thistlecrack's tracks...........He does look a tough cookie and could well be around for a few years but March at Chelters ? Gold Cup ? can't see it......way too tough for any novice this time round
 
Think it was mentioned earlier but don't be surprised if he ends up in the KG. If he jumps round clean at Cheltenham I personally think it's a real possibility. As for what this means with CC I don't know maybe not showing the same sparkle as last year. If he doesn't run well Saturday the above becomes even more likely.
 
the fact they have CC in the stable can aid punters in the coming months..if T runs in a race where CC ought to be then the "tell" is there..its a bit like Mullins running his stayer in the GC..but won a G1 with his real star Vautour..even though the Ryanair isn't his fav race..he knows which horse should run in whatever race..hopefully we can glean some info from Tizzard with his entries..he's no mug himself is he?
 
he'd be a mug if he keeps rushing things. Not only is he rushing a novice for the GC bid, he's now rushing him for the KG after a single novice race. Anyways doesn't he need 3 runs over fences before running in the KG? And believe me, you should've seen him in the post-race interview, he was wondering 'well he's not young so we'll give him another start against novices then everything is possible' LOL he's rushing him and could end up badly.
 
I really struggle to see the novices shouldn't run argument when they are physically well developed and have the ability to keep within a comfort zone like this horse. The only thing that improves with an 8 year old will be his fencing technique but if he jumps well enough. Coneygree was a prime example. This isn't the 70's and 80's anymore when the fences were brutal and unforgiving.
 
Aughex said:
he'd be a mug if he keeps rushing things. Not only is he rushing a novice for the GC bid, he's now rushing him for the KG after a single novice race. Anyways doesn't he need 3 runs over fences before running in the KG? And believe me, you should've seen him in the post-race interview, he was wondering 'well he's not young so we'll give him another start against novices then everything is possible' LOL he's rushing him and could end up badly.
Click to expand...

he is in the mind that this is the horse's peak year,,at end of day look at Coneygree..won a GC with less history than Thistlecrack

tbh i'd like to see him build up to G1..i do think this is an exciting horse for us..would be a shame to see it go tits though..i just want to see very good horses compete at a level they can do best in
 
SP Only said:
I really struggle to see the novices shouldn't run argument when they are physically well developed and have the ability to keep within a comfort zone like this horse. The only thing that improves with an 8 year old will be his fencing technique but if he jumps well enough. Coneygree was a prime example. This isn't the 70's and 80's anymore when the fences were brutal and unforgiving.
Click to expand...


to be fair..in the 70's Little Owl won as a novice if memory cells are still working right
 
EC1 said:
he is in the mind that this is the horse's peak year,,at end of day look at Coneygree..won a GC with less history than Thistlecrack

in
Click to expand...

age not in his side to wait, it things go well through the winter they will run thistlecrack in the Gold cup.

the program could be a good novice chase grade or 2 and then run in the pillar chase to test the horse.
 
i admire what he is doing..i hope it works for them..but % call may be against them..but i really hope on this occasion..% call can stuff itsen and he wins whatever they aim him at

stuff like this adds excitement to the season..its cracking
 
Grasshopper said:
Do staying hurdlers win Gold Cups?

Discuss.
Click to expand...

if i stated that X number of staying hurdlers had gone for a GC and lost..i'd be overwhelmed by people saying..stats are rubbish..you need to look at the individual horse

my view is this..if you gave me 10 horses like Thistlecrack..and said you can either lay them or back them for a G1..not necessarily the GC..i'd say over a series of bets..i'd be laying

but we are talking a real one off here...its simple really..would the top chasers beat him over hurdles?..unlikely...what stops him from beating them then..jumping ability?..yes..has he failed yet in that department?..no

at the momenet there is no reason to think this isn't a top notcher..when he shows he can't jump in better company..then the doubts will show...i'll be watching him very closely..if i see a weakness i'll avoid him like the plague..if he keeps turning in that sort of performance..i'll be right in his corner
 
Bookies are going a little bit short at the moment

but in the stable he is , many people will be going against him and thats good for the price
it is like meccas ángel, cirrus des Aigles , danedream and limestone lad.... This champions are always underrated
 
Back
Top