Novice Chasers 2016/2017

nothing is impossible..% play says no..but this is a good un..would love to see it done..

re the prices..total daftness..i'd rather back the first fast trapping Trap 1 at the next dog meeting..why on earth does anyone feel the need to bet ante post when there are perfectly good..and easier options everyday of the week...just ain't logical to me..we all different though

how many at this point backed Coneygree the year he won?..i doubt very few..and Thistlecrack..has better credentials at same point
 
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tiggers1972 said:
How many have seriously tried?
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Brown Lad won a Stayers Hurdle by default as the RSA Chase was abandoned.
He was runner up in 76 and 78 but never got his ground Gold Cup Day.
Doran's Pride looked a Gold Cup prospect as a novice chaser but came up short a few times.
Big Bucks would probably have been Gold Cup material had Kauto and Denman not been around.
The double has never been done.
Then again Thistlecrack is not your typical staying hurdler.
WPM puts great store in the Tom Dreaper theory of a gold Cup horse being able to win a Thyestes off top weight from the front.
Brown lad though a Thyestes winner did not jump quickly enough to be up with the pace.
Doran's the one time he ran in a Handicap chase got mullered, combination of 12-3 and heavy ground, he just had not the size for the job.
Thsitlecrack has size and pace enough plus pedigree; Kayf Tara ex Ardross mare ex Master Owen mare ex Vulgan mare, what my father would have called five star pedigree !
 
EC1 said:
......but we are talking a real one off here...
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Are we really though?

Doran's Pride and Iris's Gift were both top-drawer staying hurdlers (IG rated right around where Thistlecrack is), and both were beaten in the Gold Cup as novices.

I am hugely respectful of Thistlecrack's achievements, but I do think he is being treated as a bit of a wonder-horse, when very similar types have already tried - and failed - in the reasonably-recent past. I just don't see him as being that 'different' or 'apart' myself; he is just a very, very good staying hurdler, and a very promising novice chaser, and I can't have it that he is the second-coming.

I asked the question, not to provoke and argument, but to see if anyone had a view.

I'm not firm in this view myself, but staying-hurdlers - in the main - always seem more like National types to me, than genuine Gold Cup horses. Ho-hum.
 
What qualifies as a staying hurdler? Plenty top class hurdlers who who stayed went chasing and tried a few pulled it off.

Dawn Run springs to mine. Sure she won the Champion Hurdle but she stayed a lot further. Desert Orchid was definitely a high class hurdler of whom Francome told me personally when he was running over hurdle "He takes off like a bat out of hell then quickens up" He would have stayed 4 miles over hurdle the way it turned out

Bula another Champion Hurdle winner also had a go and ran well when 3rd behind Ten Up and Soothsayer. (EDIT) I was there when Brown Lad won the WH by default in the mud but thought it was a chase he won that year until I saw it was the WH.......I thought he couldn't have been a chaser and I was losing my mind LOL but he actually won 3 Irish Grand nationals


Fred Winter also sent Lanzarote for the Gold Cup who was sadly killed in the race. Long Walk Hurdle winner Royal Athlete I'm sure had a go for Jenny Pitman..............Did Night Nurse or Brown Lad ever run in a Gold Cup? May well be a few more good hurdlers who were expected to turn out to be Gold Cup horses but never made the grade. A fact that also apples to 2 milers who went in search of fame in the Arkle and never raised a gallop over fences.

The latest flop who was going to be a Gold Cup horse would have to be Grand Cruz who had an OR of 169 stared of well taking the scalp of Champion Court then won again before taking the Feltham and the scalp of Silviniaco Conti. They toyed with the idea of running in Synchronised Gold Cup before being trounced by Bobsworth in the RSA.

Bobsworth of course won the Albert 3 mile novice at Cheltenham and went on to win the Feltham and Gold Cup


I wonder how many chasers could have won a World Hurdle had they taken that path.............a lot of them I'd say would have found that easier than what Thistlecrack is attempting . Kauto? Dessie? Dawn Run? Denman? Long Run? etc.
 
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edgt said:
Big Bucks would probably have been Gold Cup material had Kauto and Denman not been around.
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Understandable why they stayed hurdling with him.

If he was in another yard and his jumping held up then he would have won a Gold Cup.
 
Grasshopper said:
Are we really though?

Doran's Pride and Iris's Gift were both top-drawer staying hurdlers (IG rated right around where Thistlecrack is), and both were beaten in the Gold Cup as novices.
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DP won a soft ground Stayers and never got those conditions again at Cheltenham. IG just wasn't a natural jumper.

Obviously we have yet to see how Thistlecrack copes with a sterner test but Chepstow showed a certain aptitude which was very encouraging.
 
Big Buck's jumping didn't hold up, and had nothing to do with what else was in the yard.
 
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I remember PN saying Big Buck's was the best he had ever trained Kauto and Denman included. But IMO his jumping would never have held up

BB had a shocking record of mistakes. On his second last run over fences and his only decent win he took 4 fences out by the root then in his final run he unseated Sam Thomas in the Hennessy and Sam got unfairly slagged and eventually bagged for it. Big Bucks was suicidal over fences it simply was not his game and probably never would have been.
 
It's a good point about Bobs Worth Tanlic. The fact is Thistlecrack will probably be tested in open company before March so we're going to have a pretty good idea of his ability compared to the big players.

If you're asking me now, well I'd say he looked a stand out winner of the WH and I'd be shocked if he turned out to be below the standard required for a GC challenge.
 
reet hard said:
Big Buck's jumping didn't hold up, and had nothing to do with what else was in the yard.
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I agree but PN said differently.....he claimed he made the decision based on the fact Ruby told him no way would he get off kauto to ride him.

I reckon it was a political statement as he didn't want to admit he was damn near useless over fences and he sacked Sam Thomas for no good reason
 
did Kauto ever ran over hurdles? And didn't Denman lost the Neptune? There's no contest, BB the better horse over hurdles.
 
Thistlecrack has 2 former champions to beat, proper stayers, admittedly both after injury. Coneygree - the best jumper of a fence you'll see, Don - rating-wise only few pounds off Kauto at his best. No easy task. I'd skip the KG and give him plenty experience before meeting these 2 champions who might come back to their best who knows.
 
Thistlecrack was imperious last year as a staying hurdler. If he were to keep to that sphere I have little doubt that he would excel again and be regarded as one of the better horses for a generation. His first public chasing experience showed he has the shape andathletism to jump fences, looks to do so with confidence and is clever enough to recover when being a tad over confident. We know he has strength and stamina, handles the track and seems to have the right attitude.

. Coneygree proved it can be done and IF fully back to his best would have a good chance of winning if the ground conditions were right ( I pretty sure he is unlikely to participate if they are not). Thistlecrack still has it all to prove but the signs at this stage are positive. Given firm evidence in any of the races that have suggested by his connections then he will be a short priced favourite for the Gold Cup but have dithered prior to his chasing debut I am reluctant to back him at current prices.
 
I am maybe reading too much into this but I got a rag alert email re Un De Sceuax via Colm O'Connell. Basically it was saying that he will most likely be running in France, plus miss the Tingle Creek to avoid meeting Sprinter Sacre.

Nothing surprising about that seems fair enough but then O'Connell the part owner and close confidante of Willie Mullins goes on to say he might come back to take on Sprinter Sacre in March but then again might not.

Maybe I am reading too many wikileaks but wouldn't he be more worried about taking on the hot fave none other than Douvan?

My take on that is either the report is not exactly quoting him or it clearly points to him not expecting Douvan to be contesting the QMCC

I reckon it's time to be taking some more of the generous King George and Gold Cup odds because anyone who thinks Thistlecrack is special wait till they get a load of this fella when he steps up in trip.
 
Be real, no one but the bookies and some Mullins blind followers think of Douvan as having a bigger chance of beating UDS, let alone SS. Douvan barely got away from Vaniteux before that fell 2 out in the Arkle, he needs to improve at least a stone to be in contention. He's not a novice anymore btw so why post on here, or you're hoping he'll be running in the small league this season as well to continue the hype? He's after the older horses now, let him prove it on the course. Oh and UDS owners are thick for not going against a year older SS, he could improve past him with the right conditions. To go to France is ok for prize money but you gain nothing in respect and maybe they don't want it who knows.
 
Show me one.just one time you could accuse me of being a huge fan of Mullins let alone a blind follower?

I predict horses who I think can become champions and couldn't give a rats ass who trains them.

The reason I mention him is because.in case you never bother reading any posts......we were talking about Thistlecrack possibly going for the Gold Cup and what he might be up against.

As for UDS improving past Sprinter Sacre..get real.......Sprinter might lose his abiilities due to age but UDS improve past him would be like trying to upgrade a Toyota to a Rolls Royce

He was exposed as no better than very good last season WPM and his owners have accepted it I suggest you do the same.
 
Aughex said:
Be real, no one but the bookies and some Mullins blind followers think of Douvan as having a bigger chance of beating UDS, let alone SS. Douvan barely got away from Vaniteux before that fell 2 out in the Arkle, he needs to improve at least a stone to be in contention.
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I suspect you're going to have to find out the hard way, when it comes to Douvan.
 
reet hard said:
Big Buck's jumping didn't hold up, and had nothing to do with what else was in the yard.
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He was only a 5 yr old in the Hennessy so had time on his side if they wanted to try again. Had he not had the big two in the yard then he may have tried again with him. He wasn't a natural so made sense to keep him hurdling in the circumstances.
 
Aughex said:
gladly awaiting that day. I had enough of hearing of him, I want to see him in action and prove it.
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Undefeated in two seasons with Mullins; finishing champion novice hurdler and chaser respectively, isn't enough 'action' or 'proof' for you?

You're a hard man to please.
 
personally I think Douvan has the potential to be a monster and think Fist maybe onto something re targets, as have heard/read various snippets hinting that.

back to novice chasers...not much today but the beginners at Uttox tomorrow is fascinating with Charbel, Le Prezien, Solstice Star and Top Notch amongst the entries.
 
Grasshopper said:
Undefeated in two seasons with Mullins; finishing champion novice hurdler and chaser respectively, isn't enough 'action' or 'proof' for you?

You're a hard man to please.
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No one's taking him that, he was a very good novice. Problem I was having above is comparing with UDS and SS who proved it in open company and Douvan who beat average at best horses in his novice years, so he has alot to catch up and as I said I'll gladly await the day when he does.
 
Aughex said:
No one's taking him that, he was a very good novice. Problem I was having above is comparing with UDS and SS who proved it in open company and Douvan who beat average at best horses in his novice years, so he has alot to catch up and as I said I'll gladly await the day when he does.
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UDS should have stayed over hurdles imo..Suny will be only one that agrees with that..a very good chaser imo..but could have been better over small twigs

SS is just a legend of an animal

Douvan has shown on the clock he is a monster..yes he hasn't yet come face to face with proper stuff..but imo..he will be more than up to task

it seems to me that SS is sort of being used as a yardstick..a benchmark or solid 2 miler....i don't see him like that..i see him as being a total freak the way he won his races early days...he is way above anything else re the 2 mile division..his wins recently weren't his best..but even his B game is good enough..thats how good he was in his pomp..head and shoulders above owt else

Douvan..is the only horse i'd be daring to mention thats possibly within 5lb of SS..and most good 2 mile chasers are a stone+ inferior to him.....they are relative also rans...behind SS in his pomp
 
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