Novice Chasers 2016/2017

He's scary ok but he's a very quick horse between his fences.

Allowed to do his own thing he'd be a good bet for the RSA

Won't be short of excitement if you back him that's for sure
 
He stood a mile off the ditches and winged them all. His jumping was a little crabby at maybe a couple or three fences, because he was under heavy restraint, and not being ridden into them.

A faster pace, like he is sure to get/make in the RSA, will make all the difference - Digger needs sectioned.
 
Actually I agree with that. He needs to go half a stride quicker and he'll jump better. Another flat track parade still doesn't convince me that a stiff track and Cheltenham's undulations are what he wants though.

Lee put it perfectly. If you were on at 16/1 fine, but 6/1 before today's race and 7/2 after it is crazy.

I guess we won't agree Grassy. I've gone back and watched his races and to my eye he has not been the same horse at Cheltenham. He just hasn't travelled so easily. It may be he's improved an absolute ton and he's so far ahead it doesn't matter but he's terrible value to find out. Given his price and that of Bellshill, with everything else at double figures I'd much rather be backing a grinder each way.
 
Take a look at him, Paul. The horse is a giant. it's much more likely he simply was never going to be suited by hurdling, and chasing was always going to be his game. As I said, I think you're being harsh (and premature) to write him off as being unsuited by an undulating track.

Insofar as the betting is concerned, what is he up against?

Bellshill - not guaranteed to stay or run
Coney Island = no Cheltenham track form
ADO = bleeder
American = dour, dour stayer who should be in the NH Chase
Royal Vacation = massively held on form
Disko = no Cheltenham track form
Our Kaempfer = beaten all starts at Cheltenham, and may go in a handicap
Whisper = same yard as Might Bite and likely to go to JLT

The rest are absolutely miles short of what's required.

There is still some 11/2 knocking about the village, and he is no shorter than 4/1 anywhere on Oddschecker, so not sure where you re getting the 7/2 from.

Henderson knows what it takes to win the race, and he has been shuffling the deck with the rest of his novices, to avoid pitching them in against Might Bite (though concede Altior is also a factor). My point is that he is happy to have Might Bite as his sole representative, in a race where he has a tremendous record. That, plus his overall form, speaks louder to me than any concerns about whether he will be suited to the track, which, I repeat, he did win at over hurdles, so he is more proven there, than most of the others near the head of the betting.

I'm not forcing you to back him........but I am compelling you to do so, before it's too late. :lol:
 
Do you give any credence to Feltham winners having such a poor record in the RSA?

And before you come back with 'he wasn't the winner' have a word with yourself first.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Not really, TheBear.

Many of the recent winners wouldn't have had the stamina to win an RSA, and none of them won in as utterly-emphatic fashion as Might Bite didn't.

:blink:

:cool:
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
Take a look at him, Paul. The horse is a giant. it's much more likely he simply was never going to be suited by hurdling, and chasing was always going to be his game. As I said, I think you're being harsh (and premature) to write him off as being unsuited by an undulating track.

Insofar as the betting is concerned, what is he up against?

Bellshill - not guaranteed to stay or run
Coney Island = no Cheltenham track form
ADO = bleeder
American = dour, dour stayer who should be in the NH Chase
Royal Vacation = massively held on form
Disko = no Cheltenham track form
Our Kaempfer = beaten all starts at Cheltenham, and may go in a handicap
Whisper = same yard as Might Bite and likely to go to JLT

The rest are absolutely miles short of what's required.

I'm not forcing you to back him........but I am compelling you to do so, before it's too late. :lol:
Click to expand...

Maybe so, but as in your list of others horse prominent in the betting, others may take a different view on their respective merits. As it happens I agree with you which is why I think there's good value to be found elsewhere. I'm looking at the likes of Shantou Village and A Toi Phil for example.

Anyway as I've said, having watched his races it raised sufficient doubt in my mind that it's worth putting him in the same list as the others and it's worth taking him on. He just doesn't look like an ideal type for the race to me. I may well be wrong, but I'm taking the view that the value is with horses at bigger prices each way, so if I'm wrong I can be right as well. :cool:
 
TheBear said:
Do you give any credence to Feltham winners having such a poor record in the RSA?

And before you come back with 'he wasn't the winner' have a word with yourself first.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Trabolgan was also the 'moral winner' of the Feltham. Also won RSA
 
Depends on how you look at the Feltham although is certaily not a pointer to the RSA it produces some nice horses

Only 9 winners have contested the RSA in the last 20 years two have finished 2nd two finished 3rd

However it also produced a Ryanair winner, 2 Gold Cup winners plus Gloria Victis who would also have won the Gold Cup but for fatally falling.

Wouldn't put me off backing Might Bite as he has no idea what a Feltham is all he knows is run and jump
 
At the current odds one has to be against Might Bite and Bellshill. The former has yet to prove he can jump well at speed with other horses around him especially at a track like Cheltenham.
 
Might Bite will make all. The only time he will see any horses around him, is when they are circling at the start. After that, it's game over. :ninja:
 
Euro makes a valid point though. Might Bite will almost single handedly make my festival if he wins but his jumping makes him a risky proposition at c. 4/1 and while I see Bellshill as the main danger - at the risk of stating the obvious - he's dogged it twice at Cheltenham and has three other entries meaning he could easily end up elsewhere, so there is juice in the market elsewhere right now.

But to quote the great Homer (Simpson); I've made my choice.
 
I don't see the drama at all with his jumping, to be honest.

A daft fall at Kempton has everyone spooked, I reckon. On form, he is miles clear of everything (imo), and 11/2 still looks a price for taking.
 
Just didn't look that fluent to me yesterday so we're now in the realm of the old argument questioning whether it will improve at a faster pace, under less restraint or suffer for it. My AP position means I'm on the side of the former but I'd be kidding myself if I said it wasn't a slight concern.

He jumped badly on his previous try over fences here behind More Of That 18 months ago and while he looks to be a slightly reformed character in that department watch yesterday's race again and you'll see NdB shaking the reins at him between fences on the first circuit, presumably to get him to concentrate.

Put simply, if he wins - and I think he will - it'll be his relentless galloping and despite his jumping, not because of it.
 
Last edited:
I just watched the replay now and as a Might Bite Ante post backer for the RSA, I was more than happy. As Grassy said, a couple of crabby jumps, but all in all more than satisfactory. I was particularly happy with how he came away from his fences on landing. He has immense power and he just drives away from them with pace and power. I think he's an absolute beast and just has a way bigger engine than anything else in the RSA.
 
I'm loving the confidence and think I'll book my annual Vegas trip right now as the money's as good as in the bank :)
 
Grasshopper said:
Might Bite will make all. The only time he will see any horses around him, is when they are circling at the start. After that, it's game over. :ninja:
Click to expand...

Ffs will you get off the fence! Can't abide ditherers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Talking about fences Might Bite has only been on the floor once and the other mistakes he made were typical novice errors.

Nicky's had worse and they turned out OK like Josse's Hill for one...I'm with Grassy I reckon he's quick enough to make all the others could be the ones who jumping suffers trying to keep up
 
Politilogue is a nice horse.. But after the last day I believe the horse needs three miles. I think the owner has made a mistake in writing off a crack at the RSA. He says its the hardest race at the festival..but they are all hard races..and if you have a three miler you need to target the 3 mile race. I don't know much about the Skelton opponent tomorrow..the horse is priced up at 11-2.
I'll probably be taking on Politilogue at such a short price though. The horse might not be seen at his best until he tackles 3 miles, imo. A two runner race at Kempton I'm not sure will suit.

I'm happy if I'm proved wrong, but on a positive, if he does fluff his lines, getting beat won't do his mark any harm for The Hennessy in 9 months!
 
Last edited:
Marble said:
Politilogue is a nice horse.. But after the last day I beleive the horse needs three miles. I think the owner has made a mistake in writing off a crack at the RSA. He says its the hardest race at the festival..but they are all hard races..and if you have a three miler you need to target the 3 mile race. I don't know much about the Skelton opponent tomorrow..the horse is priced up at 11-2. I will be taking on Politilogue at such a short price. The horse might not be seen at his best until he tackles 3 miles, imo. A 2 runner race at Kempton I'm not sure will suit.

I'm happy if I'm proved wrong, but on a positive, if h does fluff his lines, getting beat won't do his mark any harm for The Hennessy in 9 months!
Click to expand...
That race is 4:15 at Kempton today marble, not tomorrow. 2 runner race and Politologue is 1/7, with Skelton's Pain au Choclat 6/1
 
Jeez...thanks for telling me, I've been away all day. We'll see what happens.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top