Novice Chasers 2016/2017

I'm another who thinks his price for the King George is a good one but I can't back him for the RSA. His form on flat tracks is way ahead of his runs at Cheltenham. I don't like Bellshill for similar reasons which makes me want to find the value against them.

Of those at double figure prices ADO wants deep ground and he's unlikely to get it but if the heavens open he'd be in play. American is in the same category and won't run unless it's soft. I've never really taken to Coney Island but can't discount him. Whisper would interest me but I suspect he'll go JLT.

So on that basis the two at bigger prices that are still on my radar are Champers on Ice and Shantou Village. I backed Champers on Ice some time ago but I suspect he won't run here and Pipe has him lined up for the big handicap chase on Tuesday given it looks like he's being run for a handicap mark. So assuming CoI doesn't run here the one that interests me is Shantou Village. His last run wasn't what you want to see, but it's rare for a novice chaser to win this unbeaten. What he does look like is a stayer with a bit of class. He'll likely get his preferred ground and I'm prepared to ignore his poor run last year as Mullholand said he wasn't right when he got him home. He's also gone under the radar a bit as he's been put away to avoid winter ground so he feels overpriced when you consider how many ahead of him in the market won't turn up here, and I can find sufficient doubt about the principals. Therefore I've just backed him at 33/1 each way and added Coney Island at 10/1 each way as I think he's the more likely to win it from the top four.

If the heavens do open before the Festival and the outlook is for soft ground I'll probably change my position and lay off and then look at American and Alpha des Obeaux.
 
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Not backing Might Bite to win the RSA based on his form over flat tracks, is like refusing to bash Charlize Theron's doors in, because you once shagged Bella Emberg.

He has won once at Cheltenham over hurdles, and lost twice at Cheltenham over hurdles; all three times over an inadequate 2m4f trip. To suggest he has little chance of reproducing his Kempton form on a stiffer track, is taking caution way too far. In fact, it's arrant bleedin' nonsense. After three chase outings in total, he should absolutely be given the benefit of the doubt, because the farther he goes, the better he will be - that much is clear. He is a transformed animal upped into staying trips, imo.
 
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Moriarty looks a cracking betting heat with Bellshill initially so short. He was odds-on initially 9/2 Disko and 5s Our Duke.

The race has been won by plenty of 3 milers in the past so was happy to get 5s on the latter this morning. He has since shortened and Bellshill

is now evs. That's still not right and I might dutch the selection with Disko. Haymount didn't do **** for the favs form recently.
 
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granger said:
Read Nicky saying that Mite Bite has a funny brain and could be the type to get himself defeated through being a monkey

granted nicky loves a sound byte
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It makes sense to me, Might Bite showed signs of losing concentration coming into the 2nd last at Kempton and gave D Jacob a fright. He decided not to trust him and never let him alone after that, and we all know what happened next. At the time I thought it was an obvious case of jockey error, now I'm not so sure.
 
Grasshopper said:
Not backing Might Bite to win the RSA based on his form over flat tracks, is like refusing to bash Charlize Theron's doors in, because you once shagged Bella Emberg.

He has won once at Cheltenham over hurdles, and lost twice at Cheltenham over hurdles; all three times over an inadequate 2m4f trip. To suggest he has little chance of reproducing his Kempton form on a stiffer track, is taking caution way too far. In fact, it's arrant bleedin' nonsense. After three chase outings in total, he should absolutely be given the benefit of the doubt, because the farther he goes, the better he will be - that much is clear. He is a transformed animal upped into staying trips, imo.
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I'd listen to that first line but I know the women you shag insist that you turn the lights off so they can imagine they're shagging Brad Pitt. So if you want to stay in the dark when I'm educating you feel free! :whistle::lol:

The point I'm making is that Might Bite is about speed and class, and when it becomes a true test of stamina at a stiff track the visual form suggests he's not the same horse. Granted he's won at HQ but the form amounts to nothing. When he's faced anything half decent he's been turned over. That said I get where you're coming from. One interpretation is that two and a half isn't sufficient stamina test, but I still don't buy it for a horse that travels so well when he's on a flat track. If he has speed and stamina as you suggest, Cheltenham would bring out the best in him, and it patently doesn't on all evidence so far.

Basically he's a choke out horse, and I can't think of one horse that's won a championship race at the Festival in my lifetime.
 
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I will defend Daryl Jacob any day of the week, he has been riding out of his skin this season and is very hard to fault but there's going for a big one and going for a big one and he def overdid it IMO.

As for Mite Bite being a bit of a loony sometimes that comes a long with brilliance. It doesn't often work out but if you compare him from 4 out to Thistlecrack he'd have beat him by miles he was going so fast.

Plus to think how he quickened up going to the last he must have had loads left in the tank. The form has been franked no end and if he stands up he will be near unbeatable in the RSA

I can be quoted on here as saying last season this would be Bellshill year. He is 2 from 2 but geezus does nothing want to take on these Mullin's horses? All he's been asked to do so far is prove he has 4 working legs and a tail but we should know more by Sunday if those entered stand their ground. If they do and he wins well his price wont change much. One of those entered is Our Duke who beat Coney Island last time out so it should be interesting..My worry is the softer it is the better he likes it

Alpha Des Obeaux: well something had to finish second to Thistlecrack so I consider that piece of form near on useless. He ran his usual race when hewas put in his place by Coney Island then failed to get into it against Our Duke and Coney Island next time. A quick gander through his form and a look at some videos gives me the impression he's a bit of a softy and can't jump for sh1t. Can't have him at all

I haven't been paying enough attention to know if Whisper goes here or not but the loves Chelteham and with Davy Russell riding I would have an EW saver on him as he's tough as nails
 
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Maruco said:
I'd listen to that first line but I know the women you shag insist that you turn the lights off so they can imagine they're shagging Brad Pitt. So if you want to stay in the dark when I'm educating you feel free! :whistle::lol:

The point I'm making is that Might Bite is about speed and class, and when it becomes a true test of stamina at a stiff track the visual form suggests he's not the same horse. Granted he's won at HQ but the form amounts to nothing. When he's faced anything half decent he's been turned over. That said I get where you're coming from. One interpretation is that two and a half isn't sufficient stamina test, but I still don't buy it for a horse that travels so well when he's on a flat track. If he has speed and stamina as you suggest, Cheltenham would bring out the best in him, and it patently doesn't on all evidence so far.

Basically he's a choke out horse, and I can't think of one horse that's won a championship race at the Festival in my lifetime.
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Paul, the simple fact is that he was in the process of leaving every other piece of form he has absolutely miles behind him, when upped to 3m for the first time. That much is undeniable fact, and it is erroneous imo, to write him off as a speed/class horse, when the evidence suggests that stamina will be his forte.

You appear to have him marked as a flat-track, one-trick-pony, despite the fact that he has winning-form on both stiff and galloping tracks, and despite him having had just the three outings over fences, and I just think it's far too early to make that kind of unequivocal assertion.

Appearing to run with the choke-out, is not the same thing as being able to go a completely different gear to those around you, which is what I witnessed at Kempton.
 
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It's a fair concern but the fact his price held up at 16s for so long (was 12s for ages too) much more than made up for the risk.

I had a touch of Deja Vu watching him at Christmas as he took me back to watching Nicky's ill fated Bacchanal run away with the same race. Unfortunately he never got chance to prove himself in the RSA due to Foot and Mouth, though he'd won the previous year's stayers so had little doubt IMO, and he wasn't the same horse by the time he ran in the following year's Gold Cup.
 
wilsonl said:
Might Bite confirmed for Donny tomorrow :), although he only has one meaningful opponent to beat and even he's rated over a stone and half below him.

Still, he'll be clear favourite for the RSA tomorrow evening.
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He's pretty much joint favourite most places right now, best price 11/2. Bookies have cut him in the last 48 hour's, Likely in the anticipation of what he will do today. And wait till you see later, when he wins like he should, they'll cut him again. Against my usual cautious approach to Ante Post bets, I'm actually considering 11/2 right now could be a hell of a price, particularly if Bellshill were to defect to the JLT on the WPM Merry-go-round, if Yorkhill is rerouted to the Champion or the Arkle!
 
Maruco said:
Unless he's being run for a handicap mark or he's gone at the game yes!
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He ran fine in the Drinmore over a shorter trip. Clearly it would be a worry what happened last time out.
Not sure why you think he needs heavy ground.
 
This increasing trend of cutting prices in advance of what is effectively going to be a walkover and then again after the race is right up there with my pet hates - along with handing over a twenty to buy a packet of chewing gum before being asked if I have anything smaller. "Yes, I have the exact change as it happens but my pockets aren't weighed down enough so I'd like another f*cking £19 of shrapnel please".

The counter argument is always it's a case of supply and demand but bollox to that - the bookies do not want to take the bets. If he wins today as expected he'll be no bigger than 7/2 tonight and I find it hard to believe he won't be at least that on the day. 11/2 right now is possibly value but he also holds an entry in the JLT and while I'd be surprised to see him go that route (Hendo has Top Notch in that) I've given up trying to predict what will run where.
 
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If Bellshill defects from JLT, I can easily see Might Bite going off shorter than 3/1 on the day. Especially if/when he wins today. With all the preview nights starting, you can be sure that the speed/time at Kempton VS Thistlecrack's will be on everyone's lips. Possibly against my better judgement, I've just taken some 11/2 win only for the RSA. We'll see come 3:15pm today if that turns out to be shrewd or very stupid.
 
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