Novice Chasers 2016/2017

wilsonl said:
Nothing wrong with a bit of old skool but Mulholland is a canny young trainer and the way I see it is we're likely to have a fresh horse turn up in March, probably having his ground and is 3/3 over fences with a CD to his name - albeit having beaten up inferior opposition.

At the very least backing him now at 25s is going to give you a great hedging opportunity when he's a single figure price on the day because there's no way he'll be any bigger than that.

While I'm with Perp in struggling to bring myself to having an AP Cheltenham bet before the St Leger, this is good early one for the e/w multi AP bets.
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I personally think you and Perp are both suffering from boredom, and that your cash is better staying in your trousers at this stage.

For staters, there is every chance that SV could end-up running in the JLT, rather than the RSA Chase, and you will have no way of knowing which it is, until after he has had his prep (assuming he gets one) early next year. If he beats up nobodies in his three scheduled runs, his price may contract for both races near-term, but it will almost certainly extend again through the winter, when some of the better novices start to strut their stuff.

You might have an opportunity to hedge, but realistically, you would need to a) have a bundle on, and b) hope for a significant crash in SV's price, to make it worth the effort. It also ties-up capital that might be better deployed through the season.

Each to their own, and all that, but even I don't back novice chasers at this time of year! There is practically no upside, as far as I'm concerned.
 
If Barry hadn't covered an extra `mile` going so wide in the Neptune or if Ruby hadn't given Yorkhill the perfect ride, Yanworth would've been seen as a strong CH selection with only Faugheen and Altior as main threats. But instead we got this mess about him when in reality the CH should still be the main target at the start of season. If he wins the FF or Bula then its confirmed, if not only then start talking of novice chasing or staying trips.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Altior will go straight over fences this season. Arkle the aim.
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What's wrong with having a crack at the Champion Hurdle for a season? All being well Altior would be a serious rival to Annie and Faugheen in March, Fences aren't the be all and end all.
 
Buveur D'Air - Henderson says, "He will probably remain over hurdles although we are going to school him over fences to see what he thinks. He might even be good enough to run in the Champion Hurdle."

Altior - "Before he even jumped a hurdle, we had always considered him to be a potential high-class jumping prospect. He does take plenty of work in between his races to maintain his fitness and loves top of the ground. The speed he has shown at home and n the racecourse is amazing. Plans for this season remain fluid."
 
I happened to be at Chepstow last year when Altior made his impressive hurdles debut and I have plenty of respect for him.

However, until we see how he gets on I have reservations about him being as good a chaser because he's not bred for it. It usually pays to oppose flat breds like him when they go chasing and as far as I can see Hadrian's Approach is the only horse by High Chaparral to have done anything much over fences.
 
The best price available about Altior for the Arkle is 4/1 (Betfair Sportsbook). He's as short as 5/2 with Coral. It's crazy - he's priced up as if the race is next week, he's won a couple of trials and Mullins and Nicholls have nothing for the race. Who would take these odds?
 
Watch the Supreme again, to my eyes Buveur D'Air looks the better prospect as a chaser, at least from a physical standpoint. Being a stable companion worries me a tad, as does the change of ownership.
 
His breeding is a big thing for me.

I see Gigi sending some of their flat breds jumping and it just doesn't suit them.

Nicky is clearly no mug but I'm not rushing to take the 4s when Identity Thief is 5 times his price
 
Decent little novice chase go with the novice hurdle at Perth tomorrow. Flying Angel was progressive in the big handicap hurdles last season and ran well to finish behind Yorkhill and Le Prezien at Aintree. He could be a decent sort to follow for the year.
 
gus said:
The best price available about Altior for the Arkle is 4/1 (Betfair Sportsbook). He's as short as 5/2 with Coral. It's crazy - he's priced up as if the race is next week, he's won a couple of trials and Mullins and Nicholls have nothing for the race. Who would take these odds?
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Only buttons involved but there was a few quid on the exchange today looking to back Altior for the Arkle at 3.8 and 3.85 so I've put my money where my mouth is and laid him. I'm not a layer by nature nor do I particularly like to tie cash up for months but it's the principle of the thing.
 
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