Novice Chasers 2017/2018

Takes away from the race a little but has helped in resolving my decision making.


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As the meeting looms, I'm more and more coming round to the idea that maybe - just maybe - Saint Calvados is going to put up a jaw-dropping performance in the Arkle.

I do believe that if he were trained by Mullins, Elliott or Henderson he'd be shorter than Footpad currently is.

If it turns out Cheltenham isn't his course, so be it, but I'm still struggling to get over that Warwick performance.
 
If he was trained by one of the big three though he'd have had a totally different campaign, certainly wouldn't have been in novice handicaps.
 
The Warwick performance was indeed very smart, and people rightly enthused about his jumping.

Where people are going off-piste with this horse (I mean idiots like Kealy on Preview nights, rather than you :lol:), is that they think he will put Footpad's jumping "under pressure".......which rather ignores the fact that Footpad has been foot-perfect since he went chasing, and has been doing it in a higher-grade than Saint Calvados. He was also a much better hurdler than Saint Calvados (to the tune of a stone).

Some are predicting SC and PM will exploit the weaknesses in Footpad. I see no weaknesses ( he is as good-jumoing a novice-chaser as I've seen since Remittance Man), and he is going to take all the beating, imo.
 
Some stats re Footpad : 0/5 during March and April, 0/2 at Cheltenham on top of which has jumped too many hurdle races, 15 in total, I think the previous highest before winning a chase was 13. The thing behind that is horses get used to flicking through hurdles, he won't flick many fences at Cheltenham. All that said you can see why he's favourite.
 
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If any horse's jumping will be put under pressure it'll be Petit Mouchoir's. He might have been out a while but he was awful over the first few at Leopardstown.

Wasn't a great over his hurdles either and it's a two horse race for me but Footpad to have too much class for Saint Calvedos.
 
I like Saint Calvados and he could be anything. He was scary last time and he has me worried for a few of my AP accies and I bet I am not the only one.

If I were trying to console anyone I would say the difference between getting a soft lead and running ordinary horses into the ground is a universe away from running in an Arkle

BUT this horse may have trekky warp speed up his sleeve and if he gets a soft lead in the Arkle I can see a lot of AP in panic mode looking to cash out.

I am not convinced Footpad is as good as some think......never rocked my boat over hurdles as much as Petit Mouchoir did.

Lotta money coming for Brain Power which is surprising
 
The thing, for me, about SC is that it's not about a soft lead.

It's almost certain he will go off at a clip. I'm not sure anything else will be able to go the clop.

I have this vision of him doing a Sprinter Sacre and having everything, including Footpad and Petit Mouchoir - for which I do have really smart figures - out of their comfort zone.
 
A 143 rated hurdler is not going to get animals like Footpad and Petit Mouchoir - who were both a stone and more better - out of their comfort zone, I don't reckon.

If there were holes in the jumping of Footpad and/or Petit Mouchoir, then I might be inclined to agree with you..........but there aren't.........and Saint Calvados is facing horses that are in a different league altogether, from the ones he has been cuffing round gaff tracks.
 
I agree with what you say about Footpad, Grass, I don't see how he can be knocked. But as wilsonl says, Petit Mouchoir didn't jump well the last day and to me he doesn't look a natural over fences.
 
I've a gut feeling Petit Mouchoir won't play too much of a part in the race for long. Most mistakes in the 2m championship chases; i.e. the Arkle and QMCC aren't recovered from and he's going to face a stern test jumping fences at speed.

Look at Azertyuiop when faced with both Moscow and Well Chief in the QMCC.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Normally I'd agree 100% with you, GH.

Sprinter Sacre couldn't win a novice hurdle at the festival, though.
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True....though the Aeroplane did finish 3rd in what is widely-regarded as the best Supreme Novices of all time.......which is a little different to being beaten 25L by (an admittedly brilliant) French 4yo mare!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Normally I'd agree 100% with you, GH.

Sprinter Sacre couldn't win a novice hurdle at the festival, though.
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True but he had a wind op after the race as AP said he was struggling in the final furlong - coming off the bend he looked like he would win a minute.

Arkle on the other hand was not a useful hurdler but stones better over fences.
 
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Grey said:
I agree with what you say about Footpad, Grass, I don't see how he can be knocked. But as wilsonl says, Petit Mouchoir didn't jump well the last day and to me he doesn't look a natural over fences.
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PM jumped great in his Beginners Chase before his set-back, and I'd be very-much inclined to forgive him those early errors at Leopardstown. I would agree, however, that he is much the more likely of the pair to have his jumping "put under pressure" by Saint Calvados........assuming Saint Calvados is able to travel and jump as easy, in against much better horses than he has faced to-date.
 
Watching that Warwick race, I really, honestly and truly do not think the calibre of opposition is relevant to the pace SC goes.

He'd have Sprinter Sacre out of his comfort zone :p
 
Ironically Saint Calvados is the one that I worry most about over the Cheltenham fences. To my eye he's quite flat and an accident waiting to happen. Footpad varies between solid and very good which is perfect for a novice two miler. I don't share the concerns of others over Petit Mouchoir. He jumped very well on his chase debut at Punchestown I thought, and after his spell on the sidelines he was just too fresh at Leopardstown which was the reason he clouted the first two. His jumping after that was good for a novice I thought,and he'll have learned more from his mistakes than the other two have so far in their short novice careers.
 
Colin Tizzard

There’s a good chance Finian's Oscar will wear cheekpieces at Cheltenham and he is working nicely at home. “He is almost the forgotten horse, don't rule him out of the JLT, he has turned the corner.”
 
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