Novice Chasers 2017/2018

wilsonl said:
Look at Azertyuiop when faced with both Moscow and Well Chief in the QMCC.
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Can't agree that's fair, Wilsonl. Azertyuiop went on to win the QMCC the year after he won the Arkle. And while fully acknowledging Moscow fell, he still won.

The race you're talking about was a year later when Azertyuiop was 3rd to Moscow and Well Chief. He made a horrendous mistake at the water, but that was halfway through the race and was a random mistake that could have been made at any stage of his career (let's not forget Moscow made his fair share too). I don't think it's comparable to say he made that mistake because he couldn't go the pace over the first 3 fences with Moscow & Chief, like people are suggesting could happen PM v Footpad & SC above.

Remember 'THAT' famous tingle Creek was only 3 months before that and that race and the result and finishing distances is where I have always ranked them. Moscow was 2 lengths better than both of them and I've always believed that Azertyuiop was always a shd better than Chief, in his prime. Even though chief went on to beat Az twice more after that, Az was past his best, even as 8yo and retired thereafter.

While I'm ranting, it still annoys me that Azertyuiop went for that King George in between Tingle Creek 2004 and QMCC 2005. I've always maintained he was never as good over 2m after that King George. In effect it ruined him and that's why he wasn't as good over 2m as an 8yo as be Shoud/could have been.

What a time it was for the 2mile division. Great memories.
 
I'm not suggesting Azertyuiop couldn't go the pace at all DH - he was a superb horse, what I'm saying is a horse can make a mistake at a fence in most 2m chases throughout the season but I've seen many times that if a horse make one in the Arkle or Queen Mum it's near impossible to get back into the race because the pace tends to be relentless.
 
There's been sustained money for Brain Power the last 2-3 days, and he's still shortening.

He must be working the house down, considering he comes in here on the back of a UR and a Fall.
 
I can see the logic. If the front three go balls out he could hunt round (sort of) and pick up the pieces. Wouldn't be a surprise if at least one of said front three doesn't make it round so there is an ew angle in play.
 
Grasshopper said:
There's been sustained money for Brain Power the last 2-3 days, and he's still shortening.

He must be working the house down, considering he comes in here on the back of a UR and a Fall.
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He’s always been one of the best work horses in the yard so no big surprise there. Himself & Charli Parcs the only 2 able to go with Altior & Buv at home.

He’s coming here on the back of a wind op too.


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There seems to be a growing belief among the general betting public that Footpad is vulnerable. (Not one I necessarily share).

Every preview night I've seen or read snippets of, it appears to be a general consensus.

This must be contributing to his ease in the market and in turn the others shortening. Basically the vast majority are all of a sudden looking to take him on.
 
People want to be clever and find a way to take-on the jolly. Sometimes, the reasons are legit, and sometimes less legit.

Suggesting Footpad is vulnerable, is not legit. If he runs his race, he wins, imo.
 
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Everyone wants a headline or an angle - i love twitter but by jesus it gives a voice to every village idiot

Footpad doesnt give a sh*te what the internet has to say about him

I hope the sheep flock to this angle of him being vulnerable mind

Anyone who has seen him jump a fence this year and hasn't been impressed, needs removal of the blinkers or a new hobby
 
Grasshopper said:
There's been sustained money for Brain Power the last 2-3 days, and he's still shortening.

He must be working the house down, considering he comes in here on the back of a UR and a Fall.
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The same tripe was being peddled about Charli Parcs before the Triumph last year. He may be working well at home but we know what he is by now and that’s not a grade 1 animal.


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It's maybe a little early, to be judging him quite so harshly.

Brain Power was rated in the same ball-park as both Petit Mouchoir and Footpad over hurdles, and it's a bit rapid to be writing him off as completely open-book, after only three starts in chases.

Has does have it all to do though.
 
Suggesting Footpad isn't vulnerable is crazy. He has two highly credible challengers, and I suspect Petit Mouchoir in particular may well beat him if his jumping stands up okay. A repeat of his first chase alone would possibly be good enough.

I agree that the money for Brain Power is in the hope that they go too fast, cut each other's throats, and the race falls apart. I couldn't back him with someone else's money.
 
Yes, my gut instinct is that Petit Mouchoir has been sizing Footpad up ahead of the race that counts. That little contest on its own is intriguing enough.

Then there's Saint Calvados who might just blitz them both. Or not, as the case may be.

Brain Power did seem genuinely regarded as a serious Champion Hurdle hope lst season and Hendo has said more than once he did too much chasing the pace.

These good hurdlers are all entitled to be better over fences assuming they take to them, so if they're all mid-160s over hurdles they could be mid 170s over fences. What a race that would create if they all did so.

(But Saint Calvados might just be in a different league :p)
 
Petit Mouchoir would certainly have to improve on his first run that's for sure to beat Footpad.
The price of Saint Calvados looks far too skinny in comparison with the first two.
 
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Frankel said:
Petit Mouchoir would certainly have to improve on his first run that's for sure to beat Footpad.
The price of Saint Calvados looks far too skinny in comparison with the first two.
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I'm not sure why Frankel? He jumped well on debut, and we know he has more basic speed over two miles at Cheltenham than Footpad.
 
Maruco said:
I'm not sure why Frankel? He jumped well on debut, and we know he has more basic speed over two miles at Cheltenham than Footpad.
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On his debut there was no pace and he still made a mistake at the last on his comeback he went through the top of the first and landed on the top of the second.

With the likely bread neck speed in the Arkle he will need to improve hugely. No reason why he won't but there are certainly question marks.
 
Yes, but the mistake at the last wasn't significant, and for the rest of the race he was very good. Last time he was just too fresh and once settled he jumped well again after the first two and didn't lose anything to Footpad over his fences.
 
I should add, that I'm saying this as someone who has a very good position on both, and also have multiples including both, so I'm not taking a position based on my pocket.
 
Maruco said:
I'm not sure why Frankel? He jumped well on debut, and we know he has more basic speed over two miles at Cheltenham than Footpad.
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Had an easy time of it beating Brelade where he was under no pressure. Different kettle of fish if the same Footpad turns up and jumps with the same class.
Better ground would clearly help Petit with his natural speed. Footpad over fences though has been a joy to watch.
 
But you'd concede that after the first two Petit Mouchoir jumped perfectly well and lost nothing to Footpad over his fences for the rest of the race?
 
I would say his run behind Footpad was better form than his defeat of Brelade.

If he puts in a clear round then for sure he's a threat. The better the ground then the better his chance.
 
Agreed on both counts, although I'm not convinced either of them are particularly ground dependant. Whereas Saint Calvados has an exaggerated soft ground action. The deeper the better for him I suspect.
 
Agree about Saint Calvados regards ground. Still think Footpad would smash him though.
 
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