Novice Chasers 2017/2018

I would not be basing the chances of Percy in relation to the run of Duke in the Gold Cup. That would be a massive mistake.
 
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Best Arkle performances in the modern era (@Timeform):
184 - Sprinter Sacre
174 - Footpad
169 - Douvan
167 - Un De Sceaux
161 - Altior


What complete and utter nonsense

Douvan beat Sprinter Sacre's performance at every turn.

Faster overall on softer ground over a second faster from 4 out despite being 3 lengths behind at 3 out

Sprinter Sacre beat Cue Card by 7 lengths. Cue Card never won a chase over 2 miles
Douvan beat Sizing John 7 lengths . Sizing John won both his 2 mile chases before losing to Douvan

Both horses ended up top class staying chasers.

15lbs between them according to Timeform is nonsense.

I would have thought Altior performance was as good as Footpad. Footpad incidentally took 8 seconds or was 32 lengths slower than Douvan......that seems a lot even allowing for the ground difference?????
 
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I can't see why Willie would step Footpad up in trip yet. As the younger horse (7 next year) of him, Douvan (9 next year), and Min (8 next year), surely the other two are more likely to be stepped up in trip. I'd be surprised if Min doesn't run over two and half at Aintree, with maybe Douvan possibly the same at Punchestown.
 
Munir Souede will hopefully have Sceau Royal back next season. If he goes the right way, that might spring them to up Footpad in trip.

The latter does look all-over a Champion Chaser to me, though.
 
On good ground against Altior eg . I doubt if WPM would want to go there with Footpad

He loved that ground in the Arkle but hated the ground in the Triumph and couldn't go the pace early in the Irish Champion Hurdle

Despite Petit Mouchoir stopping like shot and Footpad making up a lot of ground late he still failed to get there,

Quite the opposite on slower ground.

It's not like he hates the ground but he is obviously better with cut and may just have more stamina than speed ..so possibly 3 miles could be the way to go
 
Tanlic said:
Sprinter Sacre beat Cue Card by 7 lengths. Cue Card never won a chase over 2 miles
Douvan beat Sizing John 7 lengths . Sizing John won both his 2 mile chases before losing to Douvan
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Cue Card won the Haldon off 157 over 2m1 1/2
He beat For Non Stop (rated around 153) over 2m2 giving him 7lbs

His only run over an exact 2m was against Sprinter but it's clear from the runs above at distances not far in excess and his Arkle run
that he was capable of very good form over the trip.

The best horse Sizing John beat over 2m was probably Lord Scoundrel.
 
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Ardross said:
Not that sympathetic though ! PP will find chasing those two a very different prospect to anything he has done before.
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It was what I like to call a Tommy Stack ride and Tommy could stop one be beaten a neck and you'd be certain he was trying his best.

Have to agree with Granger. Davy could have won but never set about the horse at all and was thinking Cheltenham which paid off big time.
 
Euronymous said:
Cue Card won the Haldon off 157 over 2m1 1/2
He beat For Non Stop (rated around 153) over 2m2 giving him 7lbs

His only run over an exact 2m was against Sprinter but it's clear from the runs above at distances not far in excess and his Arkle run
that he was capable of very good form over the trip.

The best horse Sizing John beat over 2m was probably Lord Scoundrel.
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True but you can't for one minute say Sizing John was not and lets not forget he also won over 2m4f beating Djakadam rate 167 by 7 lengths.

It would be nonsense to say Cue Card was a better horse at any distance.

My whole point is........no matter how you bake it Douvan outpointed Sprinter Sacre at every turn in their Arkle's

Sprinter Sacre: Time: 3m 51.10s (fast by 0.90s) Going: (Old course) Chase & Hurdle courses - GOOD (Good to soft in places; watered; 7.3); Cross-country course - GOOD TO FIRM
Douvan: Time: 3m 48.60s (fast by 3.40s) Going: GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places; 7.0)

Both horses cruised through their races until 4 out...Despite running on slower ground Douvan put up a faster overall time.

More telling is when the race really takes a grip.

Sprinter Sacre definitely quickened 4 out getting to the 3rd last in 34 seconds a full second ahead on Douvan.

However Douvan kicked in at the 3rd last and was fully 2 seconds faster than Sprinter Sacre

In other words Douvan turns a 4 length deficit to a 4 length advantage which he held all the way to the line.

It does show that Douvan possesses a brilliant turn of foot and would have certainly given Sprinter an awful lot to think about, moreso than Cue Card.

How Timeform if they had compared the 2 performances could come up with a lousy 159 against a 184 for Sprinter Scare is a joke and I don't think for one minute they are too high on Sprinter

They should definitely drop the word Time from their name as they obviously in this case never took it into consideration or even bothered to look beyond the end of their noses.





Everyone could see he was travelling all over Altior and Co when he came down but many are quick to suggest he would have blown up because he might not have been match fit.

In affect the same people are admitting he looked all over the winner.
 
Tanlic said:
It would be nonsense to say Cue Card was a better horse at any distance.

My whole point is........no matter how you bake it Douvan outpointed Sprinter Sacre at every turn in their Arkle's
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I'll concede the latter point. SS was much better in open company the following season though.

Cue Card's wins in the Ryanair and the KG read much better than anything SJ achieved
 
Not sure what is being argued here (and can't really be arsed to check;)), but if it's that Douvan's Arkle was better form than Sprinter Sacre's Arkle, then it's bollocks, imo.

Just because Cue Card, Al Ferof, and Menorah all went on to win at longer trips, should detract from what they were able to achieve as 2-milers. You've got 2x Supreme winners in there, plus Cue Card, who was 4th behind Al Ferof in arguably the best Supreme ever run. The suggestion that these are/were worse 2-miler-chasers than Sizing John, at the same stage of their respective careers, just doesn't wash with me I'm afraid.

Sprinter Sacre's Arkle was easily the deeper race, imo.
 
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The point being made is the figures produced by Timeform of 184 Sprinter Sacre 169 Douvan for their respective Arkle wins are a pile of shite.

You are looking at ink on paper and not looking or studying the actual races.

You seem oblivious to the fact that something has to finish second to these horses and half the time it doesn't mean diddly squat.

Cue Card would never have won a Champion Chase as long as his ass pointed backwards and neither would Sizing John.
 
Timeform Chasers & Hurdlers has them rated as follows: Sprinter Sacre 175p, Douvan 180p.

Sprinter Sacre's C&H rating may also reflect his Aintree win, and Douvan's may reflect his Aintree and Punchestown wins, in their respective novice seasons.

I'm not sure where the 184 and 169 figures come from, but if that's how they rated them both post-Arkle, then the figures are clearly wrong - there wouldn't be anything like a stone between the two performances. Are you sure the numbers are right?
 
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The SS rating sounds like a pre-race one obtained from a Timeform racecard. Like you said 175p was Sprinter's master rating for his novice season.
 
Grasshopper said:
Timeform Chasers & Hurdlers has them rated as follows: Sprinter Sacre 175p, Douvan 180p.

Sprinter Sacre's C&H rating may also reflect his Aintree win, and Douvan's may reflect his Aintree and Punchestown wins, in their respective novice seasons.

I'm not sure where the 184 and 169 figures come from, but if that's how they rated them both post-Arkle, then the figures are clearly wrong - there wouldn't be anything like a stone between the two performances. Are you sure the numbers are right?
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Grassy.jpg
 
I reckon that must be wrong.......10lbs higher than Footpad and 15lbs higher than Douvan?.........it's obvious it's wrong!......did you challenge the Tweeter?
 
Tanlic said:
True but you can't for one minute say Sizing John was not and lets not forget he also won over 2m4f beating Djakadam rate 167 by 7 lengths.

It would be nonsense to say Cue Card was a better horse at any distance.



Sprinter Sacre: Time: 3m 51.10s (fast by 0.90s) Going: (Old course) Chase & Hurdle courses - GOOD (Good to soft in places; watered; 7.3); Cross-country course - GOOD TO FIRM
Douvan: Time: 3m 48.60s (fast by 3.40s) Going: GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places; 7.0)

Both horses cruised through their races until 4 out...Despite running on slower ground Douvan put up a faster overall time.
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The times are wrong Tanlic - I've just run the two races together from the start and from the first flight - Sprinter came out 3-4L in front easing down in the last 50 yards Here you have a go and play them together. I would have SS performance the better but not by such a margin as Timeform.

http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20160315/2581921/15379775 Douvan

http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20120313/1947811/12159998 Sprinter Sacre
 
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The times from flag fall are correct. Don't listen to the commentator because they paused for a second or so in Sprinters race. Hence Douvan's faster time overall but that is not what interested me.

I made the times about the same from the 1st fence but it's when they start racing that caught my eye.

Run the 2 together from 4 out when Sprinter Scare kicked

Then run the 2 together from 3 out and you will get a shock.
 
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Tanlic said:
The times from flag fall are correct. Don't listen to the commentator because they paused for a second or so in Sprinters race. Hence Douvan's faster time overall but that is not what interested me.

I made the times about the same from the 1st fence but it's when they start racing that caught my eye.

Run the 2 together from 4 out when Sprinter Scare kicked

Then run the 2 together from 3 out and you will get a shock.
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I concede your point They are obviously closer together than their Timeform marks. Two of the best two mile chasers we have seen and we have been spoilt in this division over the years. Long may it continue. Possibly Altior & Footpad?
 
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