Novice Chasers 2017/2018

I plan to watch the race again but I got the impression PM was just weighing up Footpad the other day.

They might conclude PM can't turn the form around but I don't think he was there to have a hard race.
 
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Kauto you may have won 5 KG's but that does not give you the right to commit Blasphemy.....Footpad more exciting that Douvan or Altior? The latter perhaps but the former..........c'mon mate I can only assume you just got out of bed.:lol:

Not finished with you yet......Davy Russell?? are you kidding Davy Russell tell you something like that pre Cheltenham you take it with a pinch of salt...I remember Davy saying exactly the same thing about Windsor Park when he was second to Windsor Park and Red Walsh laughing at him..we all know what happened at Cheltenham..

I think we're in for a belter of a race between the big 4 and Sceaux Royal who was the least mature of the four last year will come out on top. (Got f all to do with age Grassy you looney:lol:)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I plan to watch the race again but I got the impression PM was just weighing up Footpad the other day.

They might conclude PM can't turn the form around but I don't think he was there to have a hard race.
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Just watching it now DO, and while Davy never really got after PM and never raised the whip once, I just don't think PM is as good as Footpad over fences.
My view on the Arkle come March is that Footpad will need to make a mistake for PM to turn the form around. Can PM get a bit closer - yes he probably can. But Footpad wasn't fully extended yesterday either. Sceaux Royal could still be a player in March I suppose, but of the 2 yesterday I'd be confidently siding with Footpad, even at the prices. At his current EVS, I'll be including Footpad in my multiples.
 
PM was borderline psychotic in the parade ring pre-race so amazed he ran as well as he did. Hopefully he's better behaved in March and gets very close to Footpad...
 
Yeah I wouldn’t listen to Russell. He’d sell his own Grandmother down the river. It’s clear to everyone he was ridden with another day in mind. Whether there’s enough improvement to trouble Footpad is difficult to weigh up.

A very interesting element of this will be the tactics on race day. As a PM backer I’d love to see him get an easy lead and dictate this. He’d be very hard to pass if the jumping held up.


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Tanlic said:
Kauto you may have won 5 KG's but that does not give you the right to commit Blasphemy.....Footpad more exciting that Douvan or Altior? The latter perhaps but the former..........c'mon mate I can only assume you just got out of bed.:lol:

Not finished with you yet......Davy Russell?? are you kidding Davy Russell tell you something like that pre Cheltenham you take it with a pinch of salt...I remember Davy saying exactly the same thing about Windsor Park when he was second to Windsor Park and Red Walsh laughing at him..we all know what happened at Cheltenham..

I think we're in for a belter of a race between the big 4 and Sceaux Royal who was the least mature of the four last year will come out on top. (Got f all to do with age Grassy you looney:lol:)
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Ahhhh stop Tanlic!! Sceaux Royal wont see what way Footpad or PM went.

Footpad is a far more exciting than Douvan as a novice over fences in my opinion. Douvan was beating the likes Sizing John continuously, who as we now know was crying out for a trip. Add Rogue Trader & Velvet Maker into the mix for more of his novice wins, shur I’d beat them two myself.

Footpad has beaten the multiple G1 winner & Champion Hurdle 3rd Petit Mouchoir on the bridle over the weekend. At Christmas he was in the process of handing out the mother & father of all beatings to another multiple G1 winner Death Duty, who also won a listed bumper over 2m. He beat Any Second Now by 11L in that race who himself won the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle over 2m.

There is no question that Footpad was the star of the show that day at Christmas. There is a useful one on one comparison with the handicap chase run immediately after won by Tisamystery who was about 1.4 seconds or 7 Lengths slower than Footpad but was carrying 26lbs less than him.


In my mind it makes him very exciting indeed.


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After the weekend Timeform have Footpad 10lbs superior to PM. (They had him 9lbs better before Saturdays race).

Footpad 165p
Petit Muchour 155p

If they're correct, 10lbs is a big ask to reverse at Cheltenham.

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Petit Mouchoir was very good himself yesterday. His jumping was very sound and he gave very little away to Footpad in this regard. He lacked a turn of foot away from the last but even then he rallied and held the margin in the final stages.

Given the shenanigans he went on with in the parade ring, which were so bad that even two people had trouble holding onto him and he was brought back to the saddling boxes for a few minutes, and given this was his first run since mid-October, and that he would prefer drier ground, it is far from a foregone conclusion that Footpad will beat him next time they meet.
 
I'm invested in Footpad for the Arkle and still think he's the more natural chaser of the two - and the likelier winner in March - but even with my blinkered view I'm inclined to think a 10lb differential is a tad high.
 
Were the antics of PM in the parade ring unusual for him??

While there was a big crowd at the weekend there will be even more "distractions" for horses in the preliminaries before the arkle.

I remember last year thinking prolitogue had lost all chance in the JLT before leaving the parade ring.

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Were the antics of PM in the parade ring unusual for him??
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They would have been unusual even for a 2yo making its debut.

I don't know what he's normally like. It may be that he was just super fresh and yesterday's outing will remove some of the fizz.
 
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Just looking at HRI Website and updated official ratings from the weekend:

Footpad 162 (+2)
Petit Muchour 158 (unchanged)

Irish handicapper has them a lot closer than Timeform.

Monalee 155 (unchanged)
Al Boum photo 153 (+3)
Invitation Only 152 (-1)
Dounikos 151 (+4)

All fairly obvious relative to each other, but I would have expected Monalee to have been raised a few pounds and then the others in turn.

151 for Dounikos is a better H'cap mark than I expected tbh and the Plate on the Thursday not out of the question.

* Interesting stat of the day *
4 of the first 5 in last year's plate were 6yo Novices [emoji6]
 
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Timeform have got that wrong. Footpad is about 5-6 ahead of him. Naturally there will be progression from PM to narrow that gap but it should be remembered Footpad is winning on the bridle & has plenty left in the tank too.




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Certainly the first six in last Sunday's Novice Chase have the ability to win any number of quality chases if correctly placed.
Davy gave Tombstone a lovely educational ride and was nearly going best of all two out before getting outpaced/stuck in the mud before staying on.
On better ground with a fair rating he could win a nice nice race, and he is only one of the sextet.
Ditto snow falcon and the rest.
 
HRI updated ratings:

155 Monalee
153 Al Boum Photo
152 Invitation Only
151 Dounikos
149 Snow Falcon
147 Tombstone
147 The Storyteller
.
.
145 Kemboy :cool:
 
yep. not sure what he beat as north hill harvey was disappointing but he looks a powerful chaser. arkle is gonna be a good renewal.

taken the last sliver of 10s available for him
 
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Scares the **** out of me I thought I was home and dry having the first 3 in the betting in mixed accumulators. This horse makes Ar Mad at his best look slow
 
8/1 Saint Calvados still available now. Looks more than fair ew, doesn't it. Arkle shaping up to be a fantastic race.

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