Novice Chasers 2017/2018

Kauto Abu said:
Timeform have got that wrong. Footpad is about 5-6 ahead of him. Naturally there will be progression from PM to narrow that gap but it should be remembered Footpad is winning on the bridle & has plenty left in the tank too.
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I think Timeform's figures reflect whatever 'mark-up' their sectionalistas recommend.
 
Not that this is likely to happen but someone's not keeping their eye on the ball at Bet 365. They are NRNB and have Footpad 6/1 for the JLT. The other two firms are quite rightly evens.
 
Can't see any reason why Footpad can't leave SC at it and sit in behind him. I know he led against PM lto, but those were the tactics needed to win that race. Time before that he sat in 3rd most the way round. He doesn't have to lead imo.

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Come on, DH, we're talking Willie here! He will always answer a question honestly with the truth as he sees it at the time but that truth can change at any time until declaration day depending on what he sees on the gallops.

Kemboy is entered in all 3 of the main novice chases and the target, at the moment, is most likely the JLT but in 3 weeks time....? I'm told it's unlikely that he'll be entered in the handicaps but he does have an entry for the Irish National so you can read into that whatever you like and your guess will be absolutely as good as mine.
 
archie said:
Come on, DH, we're talking Willie here! He will always answer a question honestly with the truth as he sees it at the time but that truth can change at any time until declaration day depending on what he sees on the gallops.

Kemboy is entered in all 3 of the main novice chases and the target, at the moment, is most likely the JLT but in 3 weeks time....? I'm told it's unlikely that he'll be entered in the handicaps but he does have an entry for the Irish National so you can read into that whatever you like and your guess will be absolutely as good as mine.
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Cheers archie. It was more the H'Cap angle I was coming from as 145 OR could look very generous in time.
 
Double Handful said:
I may have jumped the gun with my above question/description of Black Corton - having not seen the race - as the Tizzrd horse apparently had every chance.

However, he's run 4 times now on good ground and keeps winning. Clearly stays 3 miles and needs the better ground. Agree Grassy that the obvious thing is to put him away until the Spring and his rating will likely me mid 150's anyway.

As I said above, recent RSA chase winners have been similar mark (Might Bite 156 last year) - though appreciate with Novice Chasers, ratings not as reliable at this point.
Initially I was tempted to back him at 25/1 - but Bet Victor only firm with any price up - which made me pause. Why would no other Bookies even have a price up, especially after winning on the C&D today?
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Moving the RSA chat on Presenting Percy, Black Corton etc.over on the Gold Cup Thread back to this Novice chase thread.

As per above quote I mentioned Black Corton back in October - mainly as he'd won twice on C&D at Chelt, was already rated 150+ and would like the better ground. Even then I agreed that it was unlikely he'd be a true RSA contender.
As it stands I only took 25/1 in an E/W Lucky 15 (Footpad 5/1, Apple's Shakira 4/1 and Min 10/1 Ryanair being the other 3 - A pity as looks like Min in the wrong race now).

As Triggers mentions on the other thread, it's hard to knock Black Corton - He just keeps winning and has clearly improved as the season has progressed.

He's had a lot of runs though and I'd imagine most here will still rubbish his chance to actually win the RSA. The 8/1 at the moment is probably fair considering what he has done.
 
Thought it was worth reprising this astute and insightful piece of analysis from yours truly, from back in October:

"I would oppose Black Corton in just about every conceivable circumstance from here on in. He is probably a stone the wrong side of handy for winning two-bit races whilst having a fitness advantage."


It takes skill to get it this wrong. Envy me.
 
Honest answer is no, I don't.

I think it's between Monalee and Presenting Percy. I just think the Irish novice form is generally stronger than the UK novice form, and that Fountains Windfall would probably have exposed Black Corton's limitations (for want of a better word), had he stood-up at Kempton on Boxing Day.

A bit of me thinks BC has been beating-up some not very great novices, but equally, I don't think I'd be looking to place-lay him in a hurry either. He has track form, and the pair I've mentioned would need to be operating at the top of their game, to see him despatched.
 
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I'm not a presenting Percy fan.

I do like Monalee but they finished in a bit of a blanket the last day. Id have preferred him to be a bit more comprehensive
 
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granger said:
I do like Monalee but they finished in a bit of a blanket the last day. Id have preferred him to be a bit more comprehensive
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That's surely asking a bit much from the horse. It was his first proper start since November and he's entitled to come on a ton
 
Kauto Abu said:
I’d have Presenting Percy as my lay of the meeting.


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Can't understand why, KA.

Clearly has the best novice chasing form in Ireland (imo), has zero stamina concerns, and has already shown he can handle the track.
 
Percy hasn't won a graded chase. His rating is based almost entirely on his handicap win and the placed horses in that race haven't franked the form in any way.
 
archie said:
Percy hasn't won a graded chase. His rating is based almost entirely on his handicap win and the placed horses in that race haven't franked the form in any way.
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If winning a Graded chase prior to Cheltenham is the measure of an RSA winner, then a lot of people will have gone skint opposing Might Bite last season, archie.

I don't see how you can look at the handicap in isolation either, and even if you do, he beat the placed horses so pointless, it hardly matters what they've subsequently done.

I can understand why people would want to be with something else, but if the suggestion is that he hasn't done enough to justify favouritism, then I can't agree with that.
 
He’s not a G1 horse in my opinion. He’s shy of that. He got beat by Our Duke the other day in a G2 getting 7lbs. I feel OD will be well off it in a Gold Cup & if I’m totally honest OD won that a tad cosy. Nevertheless PP had a very hard race just over 3 weeks shy of the festival. He’s a horrible price, Jury Duty beat him!!!

Monalee is my idea of the winner & I’ve been backing him accordingly even prior to his chase debut from 16s down. He proved his G1 class at Leopardstown and will come on for that as it was his first full race since November. Bar that Christmas fall his jumping has been exemplary and Noel Fehily was raving about him after the race.


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Frankel said:
Brave.
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Fortune favors the brave.

Shattered Love has already finished ahead of him. Add in Monalee, possibly Yanworth & one of the Mullins duo of Al Boum photo or Invitation Only and there’s more than enough class there to get him beat.


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Kauto Abu said:
He’s not a G1 horse in my opinion. He’s shy of that. He got beat by Our Duke the other day in a G2 getting 7lbs. I feel OD will be well off it in a Gold Cup & if I’m totally honest OD won that a tad cosy. Nevertheless PP had a very hard race just over 3 weeks shy of the festival. He’s a horrible price.

Monalee is my idea of the winner & I’ve been backing him accordingly even prior to his chase debut from 16s down. He proved his G1 class at Leopardstown and will come on for that as it was his first full race since November. Bar that Christmas fall his jumping has been exemplary and Noel Fehily was raving about him after the race.


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I fundamentally disagree with the assertion that a chaser who wins a Grade 1 restricted to novices, is automatically superior to a novice who is second in an open Grade 2.

I do agree with you on Monalee though - he has an excellent chance in the RSA. I just don't think there is very-much at all between the pair.
 
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It's not a requirement, Grassy, but moving up in class is something that even connections have expressed concern about in the past. I think he's a smashing horse (he's in one of my tens to follow) but, rather like Our Duke, I think he's best suited to Nationals. I prefer Monalee's profile.
Most of these novice races at the Festival are slightly iffy because most of the form is on very soft or heavy ground.
 
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